December 2023

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If my evil plot to have it be weaker overall transpire, it may come east for that physical reason.  I mean a stronger/overly zealous system in the models would tend to end up more west.  just sayn'

The GFS was impressive. Not a big inversion, but then gets so wrapped up you have slight CAA at 925mb. So that helps mixes down 60kts in SE areas.

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

Of course 9 times out of 10 wind events fail in this region, with no complaints from most on here, but a select group of us still always hold out hope for a decent event. A top tier, long duration wind event like 12/24/94 or 03/02/18 is super rare and wont happen, but maybe we could still get decent winds like the 12/23/22 system last year.

[CoastalWx]

I don't hate the long range look. PNA spikes into NW Canada later in the 11-15 day. Looks like Big GOAK trough backs towards Aleutians...or should I say shows signs of redeveloping there. 

Is it perfect? No. But workable for sure. 

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Long range hideous still

Depends on what we mean by 'long range' ?

Technically, if perhaps 'realistically' ... long range should be anything beyond D6, but for the purposes of discussion ... Dec 28th -31st is a legit period of interest, one that wouldn't necessarily be prescribed in warmth.  The problem with that may also be subjective in that, some ( shocking to hear - ) don't care for winter, but just want exciting weather to follow in general.  

The period of interest "might" offer both.  

[dryslot]

24 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I believe he's looking at the beer cans from last night?

The ones that are left unopened?

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, WJX231 said:

Of course 9 times out of 10 wind events fail in this region, with no complaints from most on here, but a select group of us still always hold out hope for a decent event. A top tier, long duration wind event like 12/24/94 or 03/02/18 is super rare and wont happen, but maybe we could still get decent winds like the 12/23/22 system last year.

This is totally fair.

[ineedsnow]

this cant be right 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

this cant be right 

Ya widespread winds 65-85 mph across New England on the 12z NAM wind clown maps.. 975 mb low cuts west of NYC 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

this cant be right 

She right . This is a warm core storm . They like to roar at N latitudes 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya widespread winds 65-85 mph across New England on the 12z NAM wind clown maps.. 975 mb low cuts west of NYC 

I seriously hope not. 

[weatherwiz]

Soundings are certainly a bit interesting with the wind potential. The one thing I would really like to see more of though is at least some weak instability. I just don't see much mixing potential though to really utilize the wind potential. There is much more of a stronger pressure gradient though so this will certainly make it on the windier side (nothing crazy) but lapse rates are pretty poor so ultimately, I don't think we're mixing much wind down outside of southeast areas. 

[NorEastermass128]

Happy birthday to me on Monday.  I won’t be able to blow out the birthday candles because that will be my only source of light. 

[CoastalWx]

Toss the clowns folks.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Toss the clowns folks.

It's fun to post and scare the general public..  The best way to spread Christmas cheer is to post NAM clown maps for all to see and hear .. 

Seriously though looks like the best wind threat even on NAM is SE New England where they get some instability and a squall line.. The rest of us probably 45-55mph max gusts as usual..

[Snowcrazed71]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It's fun to post and scare the general public..  The best way to spread Christmas cheer is to post NAM clown maps for all to see and hear .. 

Seriously though looks like the best wind threat even on NAM is SE New England where they get some instability and a squall line.. The rest of us probably 45-55mph max gusts as usual..

Nothing we can't handle... 

[Damage In Tolland]

My kind of person in front of me at Dunks drive thru!

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Toss the clowns folks.

Big time. What a joke that NAM is. I’m sure the usual Twitter METS will pimp that up big time…but it’s complete BS. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

She right . This is a warm core storm . They like to roar at N latitudes 

Aren't you perpetually whining how we haven't had a decent warm core system in decades?

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Aren't you perpetually whining how we haven't had a decent warm core system in decades?

Yup. We’ve a winter cane coming!

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

My kind of person in front of me at Dunks drive thru!

You'll probably meet your demise for exposure to some invasive deadly fungal strain due to CC drilling these 80 F DP summers above 40 N more and more frequently.  Insufficient drying episodes - like last year ... 

And upon the epitaph on your tomb stone will wistfully read, "He died doing what he loved"

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

You'll probably meet your demise for exposure to some invasive deadly fungal strain due to CC drilling these 80 F DP summers above 40 N more and more frequently.  Insufficient drying episodes - like last year ... 

And upon the epitaph on your tomb stone will wistfully read, "He died doing what he loved"

Or just etch a bun into the tombstone.

[Typhoon Tip]

Thing is... based purely upon on the numerical projections of the telecon, there's also a 'signal' between the 23rd and Xmas like Will or whom ever that was that mentioned a coupled days ago.   Am aware of that buuut, there's nothing really in the pipe line/upstream that would take advantage/serve to be amplified in that time range. 

There is, however fleeting and unreliably so ..., just such a signal in the deep la-la range. 

Maybe something will manifest nearing Xmas, but for the time being, it's like a gutted +PNA.  

The other aspect is the speed of the overall flow ...I'm wondering if it's causing the +PNAP expression to be progressive ( too much).  You end up with +PNA and PNAP in the means, more so than the look on any daily chart because of that. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Or just etch a bun into the tombstone.

Or how 'bout integrating the two:  'He died doing what he loved most as a hotdog cart peddler'

[Brian5671]

43 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Nothing we can't handle... 

55 would bring down some limbs but if it's 40 or less no big deal with most  deciduous trees

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, greenmtnwx said:

Long range hideous still

Don’t let perfect be the enemy of ok.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I smell a Sci-fi publication....

It's been done, at least in a 1962 short story, "The Weather Man" by Theodore L. Thomas.   (I have the story in a book, "Time Probe: The Sciences in Science Fiction", assembled by Arthur C. Clarke.)   It describes technicians riding into the sun's atmosphere on "sessile boats" that are protected by "a thin film of gaseous carbon", with weather modification made by carefully aimed water drops.  A fun read.

I'm hoping that, like the last one did in the 48-hour run-up, the Monday storm will start edging east so that only BHB and point east will get the strong winds.  I'd also like, if it has to rain, that temps would stay in the 30s here, also like last Monday.

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

55 would bring down some limbs but if it's 40 or less no big deal with most  deciduous trees

If its from like 120-180 it can be a problem in this part of the country as very strong winds from that direction over 40-45 are less common, especially once just inland so the tree roots are not often as adjusted.  Strong winds between 270-060 usually do least damage...once outside of that even without leaves you'll usually see more damage begin, especially with wet ground.  I know in NJ we saw that in 85 with Gloria, we probably were gusting stronger from 340-020 but when we went 230-250 stuff started going down all over the place despite the speeds being less

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Toss the clowns folks.

Yes, Grab them right by the scruff and toss them off the tobin.

[weatherwiz]

This is highly dependent on the track, but it is not out of the question that a low topped squall line moves across southeastern areas (southeast CT, RI, and SE MA). If this scenario were to occur, it would likely coincide with a very narrow ribbon of weak instability. There may be enough to have some lightning strikes embedded, but this would offer the best potential for damaging wind gusts. 

Outside of this potential the winds will be pretty lame overall. Probably "better" than last week due to a stronger gradient but we'd be looking at mainly sustained winds (15-25 mph) with not much in the way of gusts (outside of the coast). 

[Spanks45]

CMC and GFS warming up for Christmas.....definitely a lot of flip flopping for that time period