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This will be another dynamic system with a
negative tilt trough and a robust low level jet leading to anomalous
PWATs and heavy rain potential for SNE. 100 member GEFS/EPS/GEPS
ensemble indicating 40-60% probs of rainfall > 2 inches and
even getting 10- 20 percent probs of 3+ inches. This represents
the 90th percentile of the ensemble distribution which is close
to 3 inches QPF. 

 

This I believe.

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Miller A should start coming back to earth soon. 

Still need to watch the N/stream despite GFS … It could be right but enough other guidance sources drilling power over the coast. As/should the Miller A correct weaker it ‘transmits’ into a more robust 2nd event. 

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I know "it's the 84h NAM" but at 12Z Monday the NAM has a 991MB low near ORF and the GFS 978 of BGM (CMC is close) … only about 350 miles apart.

Looks like it stems from an H500 trough being centered over Minnesota for the globals and Lake Michigan for the mesocale. Not sure it makes a difference aside from, like, BUF anyway.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah gfs and euro are rather impressive in the eastern half of SNE.

We’ll have to see how this progresses…the last one looked impressive too, and morphed to pretty much nothing wind wise.
 

This has time to do the same. If it’s still looking impressive for you guys out east tomorrow night and Sunday morning…maybe it’s game on for you eastern folks. 

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25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

We’ll have to see how this progresses…the last one looked impressive too, and morphed to pretty much nothing wind wise.
 

This has time to do the same. If it’s still looking impressive for you guys out east tomorrow night and Sunday morning…maybe it’s game on for you eastern folks. 

Yeah, different type of storm than last week, they will howl near the coast.  Less impressive over deep interior. 

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