December 2023

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

None unfortunately. Just some insane solutions lately.

Through all of the insanity, the sensible impact remains mundane.

[Damage In Tolland]

31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Huh, what a multi-faceted menace next week could be. 

Flooding SE'easter

Tropical cyclone

'hook 'n' latter' nor'easter with rain/snow mix

A soaking and forest flattener followed up by icestorm followed by snow cover the next day . I’d sign up for that and call it a winter 

[ORH_wxman]

I’d take the Euro and run. That would prob be a few inches anyway. 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

Some of the models are showing a slight possibility of a STC from this. In the unlikely event that it verifies, how would it compare to say 12/24/94? That event produced long duration damaging winds in my area on par with the 03/02/18 wind event.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WJX231 said:

Some of the models are showing a slight possibility of a STC from this. In the unlikely event that it verifies, how would it compare to say 12/24/94? That event produced long duration damaging winds in my area on par with the 03/02/18 wind event.

That was a coastal storm that back in NW off Nantucket. This is sort of different in that it acts more like a cutter initially. But, it has some warm core characteristics.

 

The euro verbatim is real nasty in ern areas.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d take the Euro and run. That would prob be a few inches anyway. 

GGEM too... just not as protracted.

It actually brings a CCB burst exiting on this solution -

It's all obviously subject to change with these ongoing continuity issues.

Next period of interest is Dec 28 -31st

[Damage In Tolland]

This is our last shot for a white Xmas . We need Tuesday/ Wednesday to pan out 

[CoastalWx]

EPS is not that enthused, but probably some members like the op. 

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is our last shot for a white Xmas . We need Tuesday/ Wednesday to pan out 

I wouldn’t totally sleep on 12/23-25 yet if Canada wants to get blocky. Those can go either way…you can end up under a ridge and be 50F and partly cloudy, or you could end up with snow and 27 if there’s a block over Hudson Bay and shortwaves are diving under you.

It’s not something I’d bank on, but it’s plausible. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

That Canadian solution is something. Goes for a 6-10 hour paste blitz in eastern ma. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I wouldn’t totally sleep on 12/23-25 yet if Canada wants to get blocky. Those can go either way…you can end up under a ridge and be 50F and partly cloudy, or you could end up with snow and 27 if there’s a block over Hudson Bay and shortwaves are diving under you.

It’s not something I’d bank on, but it’s plausible. 

I think everyone should ask Santa to bring them what the 12z Canadian is showing for the 20th 

[WinterWolf]

So much volatility…next run will be different yet again. I guess it’s better than each run being boring. Let’s see what the all to wonky 18z suite shows? 

[NorEastermass128]

My phone is calling for 9.05” of snow on the 23rd. White Christmas saved. 

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

no one thinks Dec. Is a climo snowy month, it's just all the mets went wild in Novie because of some faux cold/ snowy weeklies, and it obviously crashed and burned

I take it you have never read any of the posts from @Damage In Tolland? 

[CoastalWx]

EPS tries for something like on 12/24

[Damage In Tolland]

EPS most members take it over or just west of NYC. Hopefully that verifies 

[Hoth]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

So a 60° rainer on Christmas Eve is just another rainer to you if there’s no snow to melt? 

Oh it's Grinchy, but nowhere near as painful without snow on the ground. That massive cutter we had a few years back that wiped out a foot of pack on Christmas Eve was absolutely excruciating. Rain on bare ground sucks, but not like that.

[SouthCoastMA]

Remember, in the current day climate, 80% of the fun is watching the models print out virtual snow.  At least, that's how I've mentally trained myself to cope lately. 

[CoastalWx]

At least the period after Christmas gets interesting.

[WxWatcher007]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least the period after Christmas gets interesting.

That’s the most important thing in the whole scheme of things.

[brooklynwx99]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least the period after Christmas gets interesting.

yeah this works

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah this works

Animate or it won't happen.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Animate or it won't happen.

amwx attachment policy isn’t a fan of that

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah this works

Looks to me like Dec 28-31 is the next hot seat.   Doesn't mean we can't materialize something sooner.  I mean the flow being fast and all... it's almost like fractals are getting involved. ha. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

amwx attachment policy isn’t a fan of that

@Damage In Tollandpolicy is lol

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw, even the JMA has now got a deep 500 mb solution meandering through mid week.  It's a coarse model which I have no familiarization with in terms of accuracy and all that goop, but it has the idea of marginal thickness with instability

[kdxken]

51 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

My phone is calling for 9.05” of snow on the 23rd. White Christmas saved. 

Mine is calling for partly cloudy. I got to get a new phone...

[tunafish]

56 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

My phone is calling for 9.05” of snow on the 23rd. White Christmas saved. 

Your phone must've called either Anthony or George.

[Typhoon Tip]

So that's a pretty significant consensus shift by the operational versions across the board, for multi contoured closing low.  Something is missing there ... there should be an explosive response as that much q-v forcing combined with height falls intersect the coast - it's really almost on textbook spec.

I suspect it is the lead Miller A evacuating the dynamics away and so we're looking at a starved scenario. Otherwise there'd likely be a much more significant response with that thing. There may in fact yet be one, too - it's a bit of wild notion but I'd really watch that.  It could be a weird scenario that just happens to be particularly difficult to model. The Miller A may be too deep; a weaker passage would leave a marginal dynamic b-c axis more intact - things end up different.  The last Miller A turned out to be almost 15 mb weaker than the 4 day consensus, too.

Predicated on the assumption that N/stream is real.

 

[weathafella]

Monday looks quite warm and wet.