December 2023

[weatherwiz]

21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Winters with crappy Jans and/or Febs are frustrating. regardless of amounts, winter should usher in as the holidays unfold then dial it up as the calendar turns. Sure, we expect a cutter or two but it would be refreshing to time the good patterns with favorable climo for a change. We haven’t had that around here in years. 

agreed 1000%

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The other way around is better.   We used to have a saying up at UMass Lowell, 'First it gets warm, then it gets cold:  BOOM'   It seemed to also bear out statistically.

But, the principle is the same in either direction, yes...  In either case, large scale regime changes of temperature requires large mass fields ( indexes) in a state of change.  Storms happen during those times of change as a matter of course. 

Going from cold to warm is less proficient because front side cold supply can be escaping with the gradient some half the times the storm is approaching.  We end up with cold going right to marginal rain ...

Contrasting, cold arrival tends to outpace the Pacific and/or diving S/W supply upstream.  Along they ride running up underneath the newly (fresh) cold supply and ...well, fun ensues.  You'll get a kink on a miller A boundary, and/or a strong clipper/miller b type disturbance tunneling though the cold troposphere.  Personally? I prefer the latter to the miller A. I have seen some nasty pig miller As with their big PWAT transport. They are fun where it's all snow, but therein is the problem. 

The bombogens 'tend' to be Del Marva to just off the Cape.  And captures are all but exclusively miller Bs.  They take place where deep cold (relative to season) situates in uneasy proximity to a warm source - that is quite natural during recent cold arrival, from ~ E PA to Maine. Just waiting to get sucked S underneath an an intensifying E flow between 850 and 700 mb. All of which is more likely during and aft of the warm --> cold transition variant. 

There can be exceptions of course...  There's the theoretical states where a miller A gets captured by a diving impulse aloft ...I suspect 1888 and 1978 might have been that rarity.   Kind of a "miller C" if you will

I need a Miller C.

[ineedsnow]

I just want a white Christmas this year hopefully December produces 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

I just want a white Christmas this year hopefully December produces 

You and me both. Last white Christmas here was 2010

[weathafella]

16 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The other way around is better.   We used to have a saying up at UMass Lowell, 'First it gets warm, then it gets cold:  BOOM'   It seemed to also bear out statistically.

But, the principle is the same in either direction, yes...  In either case, large scale regime changes of temperature requires large mass fields ( indexes) in a state of change.  Storms happen during those times of change as a matter of course. 

Going from cold to warm is less proficient because front side cold supply can be escaping with the gradient some half the times the storm is approaching.  We end up with cold going right to marginal rain ...

Contrasting, cold arrival tends to outpace the Pacific and/or diving S/W supply upstream.  Along they ride running up underneath the newly (fresh) cold supply and ...well, fun ensues.  You'll get a kink on a miller A boundary, and/or a strong clipper/miller b type disturbance tunneling though the cold troposphere.  Personally? I prefer the latter to the miller A. I have seen some nasty pig miller As with their big PWAT transport. They are fun where it's all snow, but therein is the problem. 

The bombogens 'tend' to be Del Marva to just off the Cape.  And captures are all but exclusively miller Bs.  They take place where deep cold (relative to season) situates in uneasy proximity to a warm source - that is quite natural during recent cold arrival, from ~ E PA to Maine. Just waiting to get sucked S underneath an an intensifying E flow between 850 and 700 mb. All of which is more likely during and aft of the warm --> cold transition variant. 

There can be exceptions of course...  There's the theoretical states where a miller A gets captured by a diving impulse aloft ...I suspect 1888 and 1978 might have been that rarity.   Kind of a "miller C" if you will

In December,, 1960, my father scored Giants tickets against the expansion Cowboys who were 0-7 up to that point.  They managed to tie the Giants that nearly 70 degree day 12/4/60.  As that week progressed, temperatures stepped down to normal but the following Saturday was still 40s by day dropping sub freezing Saturday night.  I wake up Sunday to what was then "provisional heavy snow warning" which is akin to WS Watch today.  My mother made me sweep the oak leaves out of the garage and I happily did it as we faced north and the stinging wind carrying termperatures in the low 20s was in my face.  Cirrus was spreading across the sky which by mid day was starting to blot out the sun.  I turn on the Giants/Washington game at DC and the announcers start by saying we're having a blizzard in Washington!   YA Tittle hits Del Shofner who scored the TD and ended in a snowbank.   by 3PM it begins snowing lightly with the temperature near 20.   It was one of those deals where it took forever to develop but unbeknownst to me the secondary was bombing off Hatteras and slowing down.   We had an inch from 3-9PM.  Then things began ramping up and at bedtime, with my bedroom facing the side of the house, I often opened the window and stuck my head out and craned my neck to check out the street light across the street-and low and behold it was starting to snow hard.   I woke up at 5 AM to a raging blizzard-one of the all timers given the wind gusts exceeding 50 MPH at times, temperature of 9F, and heavy snow.  Looking back and reflecting on Tip's post above, I am thinking that's how you do a December blizzard.   We ended up with 18-24 throughout much of the area.  It was one of 3 biggies to hit DC-New England during that glorious winter of 1960-61.

[UnitedWx]

8 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

I just want a white Christmas this year hopefully December produces 

You're in a better spot for it than most in SNE.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

00z GFS and EURO were definitely close to a snowstorm for many in that December 4-6 timeframe albeit on different pieces of energy.  Produce a solid event for CNE and NNE verbatim.  We track. 

[Damage In Tolland]

It’s coming 

[ORH_wxman]

Interesting developments overnight. Like Tip and I were discussing yesterday, seeing more of a cold push just ahead of the action. Not sure it will be enough for us, but we’re in the game on a lot of guidance. 
 

Still looks like primarily an NNE threat to me synoptically but one more push colder and that certainly changes. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

7 hours ago, weathafella said:

I often opened the window and stuck my head out and craned my neck to check out the street light across the street

  Is it a gene we share?

[Ginx snewx]

7 hours ago, weathafella said:

In December,, 1960, my father scored Giants tickets against the expansion Cowboys who were 0-7 up to that point.  They managed to tie the Giants that nearly 70 degree day 12/4/60.  As that week progressed, temperatures stepped down to normal but the following Saturday was still 40s by day dropping sub freezing Saturday night.  I wake up Sunday to what was then "provisional heavy snow warning" which is akin to WS Watch today.  My mother made me sweep the oak leaves out of the garage and I happily did it as we faced north and the stinging wind carrying termperatures in the low 20s was in my face.  Cirrus was spreading across the sky which by mid day was starting to blot out the sun.  I turn on the Giants/Washington game at DC and the announcers start by saying we're having a blizzard in Washington!   YA Tittle hits Del Shofner who scored the TD and ended in a snowbank.   by 3PM it begins snowing lightly with the temperature near 20.   It was one of those deals where it took forever to develop but unbeknownst to me the secondary was bombing off Hatteras and slowing down.   We had an inch from 3-9PM.  Then things began ramping up and at bedtime, with my bedroom facing the side of the house, I often opened the window and stuck my head out and craned my neck to check out the street light across the street-and low and behold it was starting to snow hard.   I woke up at 5 AM to a raging blizzard-one of the all timers given the wind gusts exceeding 50 MPH at times, temperature of 9F, and heavy snow.  Looking back and relecting on Tip's post above, I am thinking that's how you do a December blizzard.   We ended up with 18-24 throughout much of the area.  It was one of 3 biggies to hit DC-New England during that glorious winter of 1960-61.

Jerry this storm is my first memory ever. I remember Dad holding me as he trudged through the snow bringing us to our newly unfinished house. Clear as a bell in my head. 

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Interesting developments overnight. Like Tip and I were discussing yesterday, seeing more of a cold push just ahead of the action. Not sure it will be enough for us, but we’re in the game on a lot of guidance. 
 

Still looks like primarily an NNE threat to me synoptically but one more push colder and that certainly changes. 

Euro has a solid foot in ORH and soundings support it but yea modeling, here today gone morrow

[mahk_webstah]

Gyx discussion cautiously optimistic early next week with high to the north and good moisture 

[CoastalWx]

That's a decent HP too. Doesn't lift out as the storm approaches. We watch.

[iceman1]

9 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You and me both. Last white Christmas here was 2010

that's why i am looking for a second home in NH ,VT up state NY i will find a cabin as prices come down 

and have a white xmas for the rest of my days 

[Typhoon Tip]

Very interesting statements from the MJO desk at NCEP re the present and future ... 

- to me, the aspects portend a very amplified pattern potential over the Americas during the 2nd half of Dec. 

I suspect the Euro may collapse the phase 4 idea some .. perhaps not all.  I rather like the GEFs notion of the wave's slower decay in the attempt/RMM before reemerging where the wave will (by then) be in constructive interference with the ENSO, 7+.  

I'm just not sure the polar westerlies will fall into sync, but ...with the recent very deep diving -AO quite plausibly lingering out there in time, that "might" set the table for a constructive interference where the MJO is more successfully modulating the L/W distribution.  So a little speculative, ...but is based upon extrapolation into known correlations so we're not just writing science fiction here. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'd like the GEPs to come around some.  I think we're close to starting a "period of interest"/signal thread for the 4th -6th period of time  ( Will and I spent some time going over the vitals yesterday, the aspects of which are still carrying on ...). With that source added along with some continuity from the others, ...we've started successful threads based on less before.

Quickly,  a few more members of the EPS and GEFs respectively have come around/added to the lowering pressure from the D. Marv to CC cyclone transit, which given the antecedent mass field behaviors with a ensemble weighted trough ejection from the west, plus the numerical telecons actually indicating a +PNA --> +PNAP expression etc (... to mention the less advertised -EPO load) that region statistically starts glowing.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a decent HP too. Doesn't lift out as the storm approaches. We watch.

We snow 

[dryslot]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a decent HP too. Doesn't lift out as the storm approaches. We watch.

We wait.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Very interesting statements from the MJO desk at NCEP re the present and future ... 

- to me, the aspects portend a very amplified pattern potential over the Americas during the 2nd half of Dec. 

I suspect the Euro may collapse the phase 4 idea some .. perhaps not all.  I rather like the GEFs notion of the wave's slower decay in the attempt/RMM before reemerging where the wave will (by then) be in constructive interference with the ENSO, 7+.  

I'm just not sure the polar westerlies will fall into sync, but ...with the recent very deep diving -AO quite plausibly lingering out there in time, that "might" set the table for a constructive interference where the MJO is more successfully modulating the L/W distribution.  So a little speculative, ...but is based upon extrapolation into known correlations so we're not just writing science fiction here. 

Yea, just about time....firing up my model perscriptions.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We wait.

You probably snow. There's actually another chance on ensembles later in week too. So if somehow the first one misses or does not come to fruition, there may be a follow up wave.

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You probably snow. There's actually another chance on ensembles later in week too. So if somehow the first one misses or does not come to fruition, there may be a follow up wave.

Yeah, I've been monitoring the models and ensembles for next week and commented mid month this month that we could see something the first week of Dec, Mentioned this a few times over the years, But the 12/3-12/5 period in Dec has produced some of the first snow for many over the years, As long as that high remains in place, It will snow as that's a strong system being modeled and could be at least a MECS potentially.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You probably snow. There's actually another chance on ensembles later in week too. So if somehow the first one misses or does not come to fruition, there may be a follow up wave.

The flow has like 3 shortwaves embedded in there and it’s probably going to be a clusterfook on model guidance to figure them out until we’re closer. 
 

That leading subtle cold press late this week into NNE will be pretty important too for setting up the baroclinic zone. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

[Damage In Tolland]

Snowy week 

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Snowy week 

We hope.

 

Of course we're driving up the Quebec City late Tuesday night and staying in Old Quebec City ( they have a great set up for Christmas ). Drive back Friday. Watch me miss this..lol ( although I know they have some decent Snow up there already ).

[Typhoon Tip]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I need a Miller C.

heh i might take any "c" at this point

[Layman]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The flow has like 3 shortwaves embedded in there and it’s probably going to be a clusterfook on model guidance to figure them out until we’re closer. 
 

That leading subtle cold press late this week into NNE will be pretty important too for setting up the baroclinic zone. 

Aside from the cold pushing southward, are there any other factors that you'd like to see that would get snow falling across southern areas of New England?  Or, is this likely CNE, NNE regardless?

Alternatively, am I approaching this wrong and it's specifically the cold that's needed so what we'd want to see are factors that assist the cold to drop further southward...?

 

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The flow has like 3 shortwaves embedded in there and it’s probably going to be a clusterfook on model guidance to figure them out until we’re closer. 
 

That leading subtle cold press late this week into NNE will be pretty important too for setting up the baroclinic zone. 

Yeah, I was noticing some contention in wave spacing/focus too.   Differences in that regard between the Euro (operationals) and the GFS shows what it can mean at the surface.  

Ex, the Euro puts subtly more emphasis on the lead wave and widens the gap ( which is unusual actually for this guidance to 'stretch' the field, at this range but it was what it was ).  But, by doing so, it benefits from an acute fresh baroclinic gradient and pummels the interior with an early seasonal anomaly.  

Contrasting, the 00z GFS puts less emphasis on that lead wave, while maintaining enough integrity there that it does evac the b-c and well...that's technically neggie wave interference there.  The arriving and closing deep mid/U/A trough looks awesome at 500 mb but you go look at the surface evolution and its sort middling and malnourished.

All the above needs to be ironed out.  Like I said just recently ...I think we are on the edge if we can just get the GEPs to come around some ... we'll have all three trending rightly for something to go down. 

[DavisStraight]

41 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, I've been monitoring the models and ensembles for next week and commented mid month this month that we could see something the first week of Dec, Mentioned this a few times over the years, But the 12/3-12/5 period in Dec has produced some of the first snow for many over the years, As long as that high remains in place, It will snow as that's a strong system being modeled and could be at least a MECS potentially.

For some reason 12/5 always stuck in my head as a kid for the first snow, not always on that day but that's when I expected snow to start.