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December 2023


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Didn't many places in the West last winter (like ski areas) have some of their snowiest winters on record? I would have to think many of those areas are close to historical lows STD. Be curious to see if things change for them at all...but if the pattern evolves in a way that makes it more favorable for us that would not be good news for them. 

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EPS cooled quite a bit in the 11-15....that ridging over central Canada is looking more blocky which is helping us get some better airmasses riding down the eastern side of that....it's not Siberian express cold, but it would be enough for some wintry threat if we can get some shortwaves underneath.

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8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Actually got a lot more interesting about 15 of the 51 members have light accumulating snow in SNE on the backside of the storm .. 

Ensemble member 6 was run out of Ray’s basement. Gets warning snows on the backside of next week and then another system hits just before Xmas for the double whammy. 
 

 

IMG_9794.jpeg

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I wish we could trust the weeklies more…they look amazing for January. But really the confidence drops so much after D10-12 even on the regular ensembles…nevermind weeklies. 
 

If there’s one takeaway from the last couple of runs starting last night, it’s that even if the central Canada blocky pattern doesn’t produce, it’s a good omen for the polar domain later on…we should avoid a ‘94-95 evolution even if we temporarily look like 1994 for a week in December. 

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4 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Dec of 92 was like that here…tons of precipitation, with heavy heavy rain, that transitioned to frozen precip almost 18-24 gets after it started, and snowed the whole next day.  

That type of sequence is very very rare in this region.  I can't recall experiencing a system with even 1/3 of the respective P-types, and the only one other than 1992 that I can think of was the NYC "snowicane" in Feb 2010.

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