December 2023

[brooklynwx99]

new GFS runs showing much more of a wave break into central Canada that retrogrades into NW Canada. this would have a pretty big impact on the pattern during the holiday week... we'll see if this can remain consistent over the coming days

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Yea it’s warm, but take up those progged surface temps with this look, Saturday and Sunday. Low 50’s make more sense across SNE away from the immediate shore.

…Heavy clouds and all, this is a furnace that’s going to take the climo corrections to the woodshed. 

Won’t see it in guidance, ever, either—we’ll just wake up to it.

...

...

 

I was even thinking low 60s on Saturday if using the Euro surface/lower trop. synopsis.

I think we can plain-jane that and go with near full sun, down-slope/kad. flow type under 850s between +8 and +11 C.   Granted the sun is tepid, but the mechanics there with the compressional aspects is going to compensate

- speculative predicated on these Euro metrics playing out that way. 

EDIT:  Friday above... my bad

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was even thinking low 60s on Saturday if using the Euro surface/lower trop. synopsis.

I think we can plain-jane that and go with near full sun, down-slope/kad. flow type under 850s between +8 and +11 C.   Granted the sun is tepid, but the mechanics there with the compressional aspects is going to compensate

- speculative predicated on these Euro metrics playing out that way. 

 

Talk dirty to me....I will be raking in a wife beater

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Talk dirty to me....I will be raking in a wife beater

I got my dates screwed up ...Friday's that day.  Sorry bro.     Saturday doesn't look bad either, just maybe not as mild. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I got my dates screwed up ...Friday's that day.  Sorry bro.     Saturday doesn't look bad either, just maybe not as mild. 

Well, a tee shirt will have to do.

[Modfan2]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One thing I like is that the brief Stein from November seems to be a thing of the past.....seems to be plenty of precip. I know the @TauntonBlizzard2013's of the world will expect that to abate once the cold comes, but I don't think so.

I was onboard with a cyclical type change with as wet as 2023 has been I figured we were do for a stretch of dry weather; clearly not.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I saw that. Also I feel like we’d have some opportunities with a pattern like this 5 day mean around the holidays. 

Yeah if you can get blocky in central Canada then that is one way to get some threats to work out..interior favored though given the airmass but you can often see some sneaky highs pike down with like -8C type 850 temps and that is more than enough in many cases. 
 

I agree with Scott that as we get closer to New Years and into early January, it becomes easier because you’re continuing to slowly cool the seasonal baseline state…home brew cold if you will prior to the cross polar flow returning. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm going to have to take a look this and probably the rest of December when I have more down time tomorrow.

I don’t think it’s likely by any means, but if we keep seeing that high to the NW build in, then you could get a sneaky icing event…but right now guidance is all over the place on that look. 

[CoastalWx]

I definitely would keep an eye on that system early next week. Low chance, but like Will said that high building in this time of year is always kind of an eyebrow raiser. The question is how much moisture is around to play with.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t think it’s likely by any means, but if we keep seeing that high to the NW build in, then you could get a sneaky icing event…but right now guidance is all over the place on that look. 

Yea, I don't expect anything until after NYE.

[Chrisrotary12]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z GFS actually funnels down a lot of cold at the sfc early next week and creates an icing problem even though it’s torched aloft. 

No kidding eh. Makes sense given the placement of that stout high. 

[Chrisrotary12]

Euro and GGEM are much more progressive with the storm compared to the GFS. Fight!

[Typhoon Tip]

Agreed guys ...

Thing is, the high pressure's been playing catch-up in the guidance ( all of them/sources) for a week. It only seems to keep losing the race, but still getting closer as the dates click off and the time nears.  Closing the gap in the d(model)

I'm not sure the entire tapestry for that thing doesn't change here as we shorten the middle range, either.  There were a couple of sneaky runs/outside the consensus per over the last few days, that did send more N/stream tucking into the back side of the tortured Mill-A cyclone as it was sputtering up the coast.   The idea here is that with guidance lacking continuity and being a bit vagarious anyway, there are forecasting headache possibilities still in play. 

Also ( I realize I've been snarky and making fun of shit lately but searching for objectivity here ) I'm not completely sold that we won't break more 'holiday spirit' as we head past the 21st ... There are several GGEM and GEFs members sending a trough under a positive height/retrograding in central Canada.  It's too far west of the NAO, and too far east of the EPO, to be picked up by either telecon numerics but it's there nonetheless.  Those features are tricky ... Should some S/W mechanics squirt underneath things go from mundane to track-able.

While all this is happening we appear to average marginal with wild card modest BN air masses near by during these periods outlined - the first of which being the approach of the high pressure early next week.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Kevs ice storm he’s been fantasizing about ..perhaps? 

One of, if not the worst ice storms in SNE history occurred in 1921 from a coastal low - 'coastal low' based upon the re-analysis I've seen/read.  Rarer form.

This was a doozy.  I coastal storm slowly moves passed while a high pressure worked across QUE, like Will was describing ... sending a whopper ageo cold momentum under the synoptic layout.  And it really is 'under' in the literal sense.  The lowest 2400' of the atmosphere uncouples from the larger synopsis in extreme cases.   

All ice storms have this in common.  You end up with two distinct events in the total tropospheric depth ( fascinating really - ).  The one on top is a warm anomaly that has no interest or physical means to even intermingle, whatsoever for the fact that the floor of the scenario ends up physically disconnected entirely.  It's like blithe destruction HAHA

So imagine a water loaded wet Nor'easter, with 31/24 under air mass fully back loaded with all of eastern Canada to spare .. just flowing in for its own reasons, UNDERNEATH wind swept CCB rain.

It's also rare for coastal storms to product icing, as more typically the CCB is better integrated.  It is after all a "COLD" Convery Belt - that's what CCB means.  And cold tends to take the lowest path.  But in this case, the undercut QUEian air was colder than the CCB, so the CCB was most likely arriving along an elevated surface.   Again ...the 1923 horror ice was a two event scenario that happens to coincide in timing.  

I'm not saying early next week is that ( LOL...) but it strikes me as similar in that there is a bit of a vestigial CCB there that appears to be lifted off the deck by a cold feed. 

[Layman]

On 12/6/2023 at 2:53 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The ensembles are pretty clueless beyond D10 right now. Check out this animation for the last 48 hours on the EPS…12z on the 4th, 12z yesterday and 12z today….all 3 of these are valid Dec 18th 00z

 

 

Has this improved at all over the past week or is everything still in flux?  I recall the conversation at the time was that these were all over the place (as you showed here) and the long range was a crap shoot.  We're now 3 days out from whatever was being shown at D10 at that time - did the models provide a fair assessment 7 days ago as to what would be happening?  

From comments over the past couple days it sounds like much is still in a dynamic pattern with no real direction.  Curious to see if/when they begin to hone in on possibilities with a higher level of confidence.  

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Kevs ice storm he’s been fantasizing about ..perhaps? 

I had it last year . I think I was the only one who recognized it was possible the day before. 

[MaineJayhawk]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I had it last year . I think I was the only one who recognized it was possible the day before. 

You good now?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, MaineJayhawk said:

You good now?

Nope. This was basically relegated to above 800’ last year. All those pics were my street . Every yard lost some kind of tree . I want something damaging and widespread that causes infrastructure problems 

[Typhoon Tip]

No thanks -

I'm crucially that 1 less of 50/50 on ice storms ( that means, 51% against). 

The aesthetics of them is difficult to deny. 

However, standing there in a cooling household with no lights, mm. At first it's a fun break from the norm, but the novelty of that fades miserable. Eventually, you might even realize that odor is the back of your balls while there's no hot water.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nope. This was basically relegated to above 800’ last year. All those pics were my street . Every yard lost some kind of tree . I want something damaging and widespread that causes infrastructure problems 

That was enhanced by winds. Otherwise it would be flaccid.

[dryslot]

There been a lot of limp winter weather so far this season.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

new GFS runs showing much more of a wave break into central Canada that retrogrades into NW Canada. this would have a pretty big impact on the pattern during the holiday week... we'll see if this can remain consistent over the coming days

Yeah I was getting caught up this morning and didn't see folks posted stuff. 

That positive anomaly up there appears to be getting more ominous with passing days.  It seems the GFS is just slightly too suppressive ( oper.), but if you loop the GGEM (0z) and the GEFs(06z) around the 22nd - Xmas, there is suggestion that some members allow trough mechanics to squeeze underneath that ( I'm not dissuaded by any GFS oper behavior being 'too amplified' with anything in that range as a matter of course)

I can't believe I'm about to say this given the forced feeding tube of shit we've intubated with over the last 2 weeks of guidance ... but, when that happens, 2 stream subsume type phasing opportunities enhance.  

It's not there ( if yet) ... but sending retrograding positive height anomalies N of any region leads to back ground numerical instability of said region.  That's just unavoidable.  It is what is.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I was getting caught up this morning and didn't see folks posted stuff. 

That positive anomaly up there appears to be getting more ominous with passing days.  It seems the GFS is just slightly too suppressive ( oper.), but if you loop the GGEM (0z) and the GEFs(06z) around the 22nd - Xmas, there is suggestion that some members allow trough mechanics to squeeze underneath that ( I'm not dissuaded by any GFS oper behavior being 'too amplified' with anything in that range as a matter of course)

I can't believe I'm about to say this given the forced feeding tube of shit we've intubated with over the last 2 weeks of guidance ... but, when that happens, 2 stream subsume type phasing opportunities enhance.  

It's not there ( if yet) ... but sending retrograding positive height anomalies N of any region leads to back ground numerical instability of said region.  That's just unavoidable.  It is what is.

I liked the period around Xmas to NY last month, but I'm not expecting anything at this point...if it pops up, so be it...I would take it.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nope. This was basically relegated to above 800’ last year. All those pics were my street . Every yard lost some kind of tree . I want something damaging and widespread that causes infrastructure problems 

All us weenies deep down whether we admit it or not would be in awe to see a 2” icestorm that knocks down everything causing millions of power outages for weeks (though after a day we’d b**ch bc we’d have no cell service). Just not the week before Christmas please.  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I was getting caught up this morning and didn't see folks posted stuff. 

That positive anomaly up there appears to be getting more ominous with passing days.  It seems the GFS is just slightly too suppressive ( oper.), but if you loop the GGEM (0z) and the GEFs(06z) around the 22nd - Xmas, there is suggestion that some members allow trough mechanics to squeeze underneath that ( I'm not dissuaded by any GFS oper behavior being 'too amplified' with anything in that range as a matter of course)

I can't believe I'm about to say this given the forced feeding tube of shit we've intubated with over the last 2 weeks of guidance ... but, when that happens, 2 stream subsume type phasing opportunities enhance.  

It's not there ( if yet) ... but sending retrograding positive height anomalies N of any region leads to back ground numerical instability of said region.  That's just unavoidable.  It is what is.

Yes please. 

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

All us weenies deep down whether we admit it or not would be in awe to see a 2” icestorm that knocks down everything causing millions of power outages for weeks (though after a day we’d b**ch bc we’d have no cell service). Just not the week before Christmas please.  

I would agree that in the back of our minds we be like holy mother of god. However, it does go a lot further than losing cell service. I remember back in 2011 we had that October snow event. We had severe tree damage and no power for 11 days. To be honest it was not fun, it was very costly for us personally as we lost a lot of trees in the yard and had a lot of damage. Damage. What I want that again knowing what would happen? No. But yes, there's that strange excitement Deep down..lol

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I would agree that in the back of our minds we be like holy mother of god. However, it does go a lot further than losing cell service. I remember back in 2011 we had that October snow event. We had severe tree damage and no power for 11 days. To be honest it was not fun, it was very costly for us personally as we lost a lot of trees in the yard and had a lot of damage. Damage. What I want that again knowing what would happen? No. But yes, there's that strange excitement Deep down..lol

Exactly. Also financially for business owners like myself I’d take a hit.
 

After that stretch of what seemed like an event that caused a week long power outage every year for 8 years in a row I invested in a whole house natural gas generator a few years back so I don’t have to worry about that.  Funny we haven’t had a long power outage since August 2020 got my generator that Fall. 

[DavisStraight]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I would agree that in the back of our minds we be like holy mother of god. However, it does go a lot further than losing cell service. I remember back in 2011 we had that October snow event. We had severe tree damage and no power for 11 days. To be honest it was not fun, it was very costly for us personally as we lost a lot of trees in the yard and had a lot of damage. Damage. What I want that again knowing what would happen? No. But yes, there's that strange excitement Deep down..lol

I lost power for 7 days, couldn't work so I lost money there and just hung out in front of my wood stove with my dogs. Took showers and ate at my brothers and restaurants. It sucked.

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

All us weenies deep down whether we admit it or not would be in awe to see a 2” icestorm that knocks down everything causing millions of power outages for weeks (though after a day we’d b**ch bc we’d have no cell service). Just not the week before Christmas please.  

Yes there is not a single poster here that would not want to live through that and witness. No matter how much they “say” they don’t. We know 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes there is not a single poster here that would not want to live through that and witness. No matter how much they “say” they don’t. We know 

You don’t know because we don’t, thanks.