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December 2023

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There is a 'signal' (more apt a period of interest..) I've been watching for Dec 4-6th.

There's another weaker signal for Dec 7-8 too....I think the Dec 4-6 one is prob too warm for us though...NNE might be different. Some of it will depend on how the NAO block shakes out....that could still correct the whole system south since the block will influence any potential 50/50 low and confluence in SE Canada.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Watch early next week as we’ve been touting 

I have been, Commented back in mid Nov to watch that period of the first week for something to pop, But its more up into CNE/NNE especially the same areas that are seeing snow in this last week i would favor, Still a bit early here but its possible with the right timing.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's another weaker signal for Dec 7-8 too....I think the Dec 4-6 one is prob too warm for us though...NNE might be different. Some of it will depend on how the NAO block shakes out....that could still correct the whole system south since the block will influence any potential 50/50 low and confluence in SE Canada.

Hint hint,  I wouldn't mention it if there weren't a chance ( in my head ) that it might trend colder lol.

But yeah, we'll see - 'period of interest' is like a step below 'signal'

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hint hint,  I wouldn't mention it if there weren't a chance ( in my head ) that it might trend colder.

But yeah, we'll see - 'period of interest' is like a step below 'signal'

Canadian comes close....nice for NNE, but we're not far off from something better here. Certainly colder than the 00z run....but we're obviously still about a week out so there's a ton of time for changes.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Canadian comes close....nice for NNE, but we're not far off from something better here. Certainly colder than the 00z run....but we're obviously still about a week out so there's a ton of time for changes.

That GGEM is right on the fence from cashing in on this idea..It's like all or nothing with that polar high up there.  There's a weak analog to a '50/50 low' there, with polar high/confluence over top orienting between it, vs this important +PNAP pulse. If that presses just 'this much' more, it's going from cold rain to blue snow and whole different world evolves.  It's almost harder to keep that mix. Either or 

Thing 4th-6th period has been repeating since last Monday - I glanced at that charts over the course of the holiday week while down in Va Beach ... when it was like hour 312 

I'll just convey ... the reason for 'chance to go colder' is/are some canonical telecon behaviors/projections that 'tend' ( not always, Kevin) to send cold air across southern Canada - often times we correct toward subtle but crucially more confluence to also aid in delivery. 

 

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Every season seems to have a buzzword…this year it’s “canonical.”   Holy smokes it’s getting tossed around every other post the last week.  

It's kind of a sloppy usage, yup.  I noticed that myself - they come and go..  But, I've come to realize that in order to affectingly communicate, you have to go with what people understand? 

The "group understanding" is more heavily influenced by the spirit/mood of the era, than it is by longer term/'more correct' this that or the other thing. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Still a lot of guidance disagreement for 2nd week of December....GEPS on the colder end, EPS on the warmer end, GEFS in between but prob closer to GEPS. This is likely due to the differences in the tropical Pacific where the EPS on the last few runs has had stronger forcing into phase 4/5 than the other model suites.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still a lot of guidance disagreement for 2nd week of December....GEPS on the colder end, EPS on the warmer end, GEFS in between but prob closer to GEPS. This is likely due to the differences in the tropical Pacific where the EPS on the last few runs has had stronger forcing into phase 4/5 than the other model suites.

This is probably the only thing that has me nervous about getting a more favorable pattern so soon. Anytime it comes down to differences within the tropical pacific (i.e. MJO) it's very difficult to merit a high level of confidence given how models are notorious for not handling tropical convection/MJO progression very well in the medium+ range. Not a knock on models, it's just that aspect is awfully difficult to resolve. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is probably the only thing that has me nervous about getting a more favorable pattern so soon. Anytime it comes down to differences within the tropical pacific (i.e. MJO) it's very difficult to merit a high level of confidence given how models are notorious for not handling tropical convection/MJO progression very well in the medium+ range. Not a knock on models, it's just that aspect is awfully difficult to resolve. 

You didn't ask me but ... I suspect the Euro is less correct about 4-6 phase space.   It's not even clear the tropics are completely integrating a forcing above ~35 N to begin with. The dispersion mechanics don't seem to be overcoming mid and upper latitude flow and anomalies thereof

It's sort of counter intuitive, but if it were ... the 4-6 wouldn't be correlated well with warm ENSO and would tend to be in destructive interference.  So why would an MJO of any kind be able to?  In other words, inability to escape and modulate would work in both directions.

I've noticed a lot of MJO reliance creeping back into the various sub-forum chatter when again again again... the MJO's are constructive or destructive interferences - they don't really drive the patterns, they either reenforce or offset by less than totality - there are times when it's completely unable to at that.

 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You didn't ask me but ... I suspect the Euro is less correct about 4-6 phase space.   It's not even clear the tropics are completely integrating a forcing above ~35 N to begin with. The dispersion mechanics don't seem to be overcoming mid and upper latitude flow and anomalies thereof

It's sort of counter intuitive, but if it were ... the 4-6 wouldn't be correlated well with warm ENSO and would tend to be in destructive interference.  So why would an MJO of any kind be able to?

I've noticed a lot of MJO reliance creeping back into the various sub-forum chatter when again again again... the MJO's are constructive or destructive interferences - they don't really drive the patterns, they either reenforce or offset.

 

Great post, I don't have much knowledge with the MJO and MJO forecasting, but your thoughts are similar to what I've gathered on the board over boards these years. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Watch early December for a snow event before we warm up.

The other way around is better.   We used to have a saying up at UMass Lowell, 'First it gets warm, then it gets cold:  BOOM'   It seemed to also bear out statistically.

But, the principle is the same in either direction, yes...  In either case, large scale regime changes of temperature requires large mass fields ( indexes) in a state of change.  Storms happen during those times of change as a matter of course. 

Going from cold to warm is less proficient because front side cold supply can be escaping with the gradient some half the times the storm is approaching.  We end up with cold going right to marginal rain ...

Contrasting, cold arrival tends to outpace the Pacific and/or diving S/W supply upstream.  Along they ride running up underneath the newly (fresh) cold supply and ...well, fun ensues.  You'll get a kink on a miller A boundary, and/or a strong clipper/miller b type disturbance tunneling though the cold troposphere.  Personally? I prefer the latter to the miller A. I have seen some nasty pig miller As with their big PWAT transport. They are fun where it's all snow, but therein is the problem. 

The bombogens 'tend' to be Del Marva to just off the Cape.  And captures are all but exclusively miller Bs.  They take place where deep cold (relative to season) situates in uneasy proximity to a warm source - that is quite natural during recent cold arrival, from ~ E PA to Maine. Just waiting to get sucked S underneath an an intensifying E flow between 850 and 700 mb. All of which is more likely during and aft of the warm --> cold transition variant. 

There can be exceptions of course...  There's the theoretical states where a miller A gets captured by a diving impulse aloft ...I suspect 1888 and 1978 might have been that rarity.   Kind of a "miller C" if you will

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This is the ideal timing we’d like a weenie look to develop. Not in Nov or March. 

Yeah hopefully we can get a solid event or two in during the final 2 weeks of the month for the holidays and then carry that into a great January pattern. 
 

Anything before that is gravy…and I do think the pattern prior to mid-month can support an event, it’s just a little harder given the imperfections plus climo still being a little skimpy in early December. 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah hopefully we can get a solid event or two in during the final 2 weeks of the month for the holidays and then carry that into a great January pattern. 
 

Anything before that is gravy…and I do think the pattern prior to mid-month can support an event, it’s just a little harder given the imperfections plus climo still being a little skimpy in early December. 

Winters with crappy Jans and/or Febs are frustrating. regardless of amounts, winter should usher in as the holidays unfold then dial it up as the calendar turns. Sure, we expect a cutter or two but it would be refreshing to time the good patterns with favorable climo for a change. We haven’t had that around here in years. 

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