December 2023

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Watching those blues show up from North of Alaska the whole way down through California in the long range is definitely bringing back rough memories from last year around this time....

I sort of miss watching Weather world on PBS, hoping to see their snow icon in their "long range" forecasts. It has been so long I can barely remember what it looked like.  There was no Euro weeklies/monthly forecasts, just possibilities/chances back then. No punting full months in advance.....

Most of the “punting” is just cope…nobody actually has any idea what New Year’s Eve is going to be like or January 5th or January 10th. But it’s easier to punt and then claim expertise on LR forecasting if we don’t get snow…or if you’re wrong, you get to track snow events. 
 

I’ll add that it’s very normal even during good potent El Niños to have Canada be pretty warm. Jan ‘87 was a torch up there. Jan ‘03 too though to a lesser extent. Even Feb ‘78 was. 
 

What we’re looking for is to amplify the western ridge a bit more so we’re not getting those flat-ish ridge over the central US. We want northern stream to be active in New England during El Niño and that’s when we often clean up. Even if temps are only so-so, we’ll usually still get our fair share. 

[cut]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

On this date, 31 years ago ... I witnessed an usual occurrence from my dormitory attending college at UML.  It was during the 1992 Nor'easter, a top 3 all time personal storm experience favorite. Ironically .. while skulking around Youtube over lunch today, I happened across this random video from (apparently) State College, PA. At first I thought how much that reminds me of ...'wait!' That was today! - felt as though I was meant to remember.

It's just a snow squall ...but the speed in which the heavy snow column took over the scenery is remarkably similar to what I observed that faithful night of the 11th.  Only, the interface I witnessed was not a transition from clear air to snow...  it was wind driven heavy sheets of cold rain, demarcated by a single massive flash of lightning and the report, just prior to the flash over from silvery night right to dimly orbed street lamps through whirling snow.  I watched as the sky transformed, transfixed, as I wasn't entirely certain what it was in fact I was seeing.  I'd seen squalls do this... not during Nor'easters.  The next dawn we awoke to 17"

 

What dorm? Fox? If so what floor?

[512high]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most of the “punting” is just cope…nobody actually has any idea what New Year’s Eve is going to be like or January 5th or January 10th. But it’s easier to punt and then claim expertise on LR forecasting if we don’t get snow…or if you’re wrong, you get to track snow events. 
 

I’ll add that it’s very normal even during good potent El Niños to have Canada be pretty warm. Jan ‘87 was a torch up there. Jan ‘03 too though to a lesser extent. Even Feb ‘78 was. 
 

What we’re looking for is to amplify the western ridge a bit more so we’re not getting those flat-ish ridge over the central US. We want northern stream to be active in New England during El Niño and that’s when we often clean up. Even if temps are only so-so, we’ll usually still get our fair share. 

Nicely explained, what choice do we have? We wait...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most of the “punting” is just cope…nobody actually has any idea what New Year’s Eve is going to be like or January 5th or January 10th. But it’s easier to punt and then claim expertise on LR forecasting if we don’t get snow…or if you’re wrong, you get to track snow events. 
 

I’ll add that it’s very normal even during good potent El Niños to have Canada be pretty warm. Jan ‘87 was a torch up there. Jan ‘03 too though to a lesser extent. Even Feb ‘78 was. 
 

What we’re looking for is to amplify the western ridge a bit more so we’re not getting those flat-ish ridge over the central US. We want northern stream to be active in New England during El Niño and that’s when we often clean up. Even if temps are only so-so, we’ll usually still get our fair share. 

At some point though, you need actual changes, because the current pattern just isn’t very good outside of PF land.

 

While I agree it’s often a reactionary defense mechanism, this is a results based hobby, and we haven’t been getting results 

[mahk_webstah]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

I’d rather a dong, than a nipple…

Welcome out of the closet!  Zeus will send along a welcome basket.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

At some point though, you need actual changes, because the current pattern just isn’t very good outside of PF land.

 

While I agree it’s often a reactionary defense mechanism, this is a results based hobby, and we haven’t been getting results 

How do people know what the “results” are going to be on January 5th? Or December 30th? 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

How do people know what the “results” are going to be on January 5th? Or December 30th? 

they don’t. it’s literally avoidant attachment but instead of the girl you like, it’s with snow

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

they don’t. it’s literally avoidant attachment but instead of the girl you like, it’s with snow

Now that's a diagnosis!  You should be seeing clients between model runs.

[Chrisrotary12]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

How do people know what the “results” are going to be on January 5th? Or December 30th? 

Wolfie?

[CoastalWx]

It does show signs of getting better after Christmas on guidance today. 

[Torch Tiger]

The past month or so of sensible wx seems to have reconnected where last winter left us.. the overall vibe is just normal cold, at worst, many relatively "mild" days and nights, too.  canada is furnaced for weeks.  All hope will ride with hoping for a sloppy few inches, but even NNE (without el) will probably have issues in some systems.

[Damage In Tolland]

Hanging on barely with 

but lurking 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hanging on barely 

Hang on to this 

[kdxken]

17 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

The past month or so of sensible wx seems to have reconnected where last winter left us.. the overall vibe is just normal cold, at worst, many relatively "mild" days and nights, too.  canada is furnaced for weeks.  All hope will ride with hoping for a sloppy few inches, but even NNE (without el) will probably have issues in some systems.

Sucks there's no real torch though. I mean if it's not going to snow it might as well be warm.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hang on to this 

I’m sure he has a tight grip on it.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

How do people know what the “results” are going to be on January 5th? Or December 30th? 

I’ve been saying this for days.  We don’t, and even if the pattern isn’t great it can still snow in New England.  We’ve thread the needle many times before. 

[bristolri_wx]

If you think things are bad now - just think, December 21 is right around the corner, days will be getting longer, and Winter will begin to fade.

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I’ve been saying this for days.  We don’t, and even if the pattern isn’t great it can still snow in New England.  We’ve thread the needle many times before. 

I mean, I get the frustration of last winter, but we’re actually in a totally different pattern even if December sucks so far. 
 

People should also have realistic expectations. Decembers are typically pretty tough in El Niño unless you get big blocking. I think it’s fair to get discouraged if we are entering January and it doesn’t look good. 
 

But that said, you are correct that we don’t need a Kocin cookbook pattern to get snow events. That later month look where it gets a little blocky around Hudson Bay and adjacent Canada can work provided we get some western ridging with it to give us a few northern stream impulses. 

[UnitedWx]

57 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Welcome out of the closet!  Zeus will send along a welcome basket.

I happen to agree with his sentiment... so there! 

[Torch Tiger]

16 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Sucks there's no real torch though. I mean if it's not going to snow it might as well be warm.

better than a wind-driven -5.  Let's take 40's-50's into Tanuary plus preserve the very green, lush lawns

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I think they average 341 inches/year.

I remember a real bad year here they were setting records, that's why I look up there sometimes. Was it 2012 we were in the 70s in March?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, cut said:

What dorm? Fox? If so what floor?

Fox.  7th

[Snowcrazed71]

 Although there's many of you that post  here and have a realistic but optimistic view,  and also have a constructive not destructive conversation with others on here of what's going to happen with the weather, there are select three or four that come on here and like to dig the knife in deeper and deeper.

Now I get that there's frustration with the way things have gone so far ( and I'm talking southern New England on South as I think most of northern New England has been doing fairly well for this time. But at the same token, it's December 11th. Yes, as of the last few days, the long range models have shifted back to a not so good look. But they can easily shift back as they will probably do.

[wokeupthisam]

55 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I’ve been saying this for days.  We don’t, and even if the pattern isn’t great it can still snow in New England.  We’ve thread the needle many times before. 

Exactly right, as is the obverse side of that coin:  Even if the pattern IS great, it can still not snow in New England.  When the mets explain 10-14 day model outputs, or weeklies, or seasonal indices etc – and say they ‘look good’ or not, they’re commenting on what the guidance is showing, point in time.  As in, what the results should look like if that guidance verifies, sometimes offering their take on the likelihood of it verifying.  But it’s just based on guidance that change over time more often than not.  When it does, we get their take on the change.  Silly to ‘cancel’ this or ‘lock’ that in LR, but irrational conclusions rule despite us all knowing that.  

I’ll be the first to admit my bias is to lean against epic outcomes no matter what the LR shows, which I attribute to a long life of New England weather watching and knowing how often Lucy tricks me into running at that football again.  Still haven't achieved immunity, last year I fell for it again, got sucked in to hoping for a ‘generational’ winter event with all that anomalous blocking etc.  Surely (I thought) there was no way a Grinch storm would time perturbations to ride through a massive block, and so when the LR on Dec 15-16 showed an historic bomb coastal around the 24^th I was all-in.  The fun lasted a day or two of brightly-colored apocalyptic model outputs and ruminations, until the inevitable (and dreaded) change – I think iirc the Euro shifted that low something like 500 mi in one run, then the other runs took all hopes and… rectum.  Result: a Grinch for the ages last year...

Yet there I was, and here I am, checking into the forum to see what the LR *might* have in store “next time”…  and doing my best to remember it’s just point-in-time guidance and commentary, and more likely to change than not.  

Maybe a surprise pops in time for Christmas, maybe things change for the snowier after Christmas, maybe it all looks bleak through mid-January but nothing is a 'lock' - and we keep checking in to see how stuff is tracking and hearing some solid met insights into what's showing up.  Doris Day was right:  “Que sera, sera”!

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean, I get the frustration of last winter, but we’re actually in a totally different pattern even if December sucks so far. 
 

People should also have realistic expectations. Decembers are typically pretty tough in El Niño unless you get big blocking. I think it’s fair to get discouraged if we are entering January and it doesn’t look good. 
 

But that said, you are correct that we don’t need a Kocin cookbook pattern to get snow events. That later month look where it gets a little blocky around Hudson Bay and adjacent Canada can work provided we get some western ridging with it to give us a few northern stream impulses. 

Folks forget or choose not to remember the El Nino discussions during the early fall that strongly suggested December would likely run the risk of a being an above normal month with thread the needle events for any shot at meaningful snow threats.  In a lot of ways this December is playing out pretty much according to classic past El Nino years... 

The same long-range outlooks the pointed out the risk of a warmer than normal December, also pointed toward the pattern improving once into or just beyond the Xmas holiday week.  I am in that camp even if the shift to a more favorable setup waits until early January.   This December pattern is nothing like last December and the global pattern is very different.  I do not expect the pattern to flip into an unusually cold regime once into early January and I don't think one is needed to see significant Northeast snows.   As we all know, pattern transitions are commonly a bit later the originally thought so no one should be surprised if the more favorable pattern waits a week or more later than originally projected.

I don't think anyone is talking about a Jan 2015 type of flip, but I expect the large-scale NA pattern will grow more favorable for significant storm action moving into January, even if the regional temperature pattern is close to normal or a bit above normal.  The pattern laid out by 40/70 is a very realistic path forward and one that fits where I think the long-range modeling seems likely to go:  In short, more western ridging, an active Pacific jet under-cutting Western ridging and enough high latitude blocking to allow seasonably cold air masses to visit on a regular basis...

[Damage In Tolland]

 I want to wash my hands my face, my hair in Snow …

 

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 I want to wash my hands my face, my hair in Snow …

 

Just was reading  kids Christmas book. All talking about snow. Triggering.

[dendrite]

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I was heartbroken over that scene when I was a kid.  

[kdxken]

30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 I want to wash my hands my face, my hair in Snow …

 

Lucky still north of the pike isn't around. I can only imagine how he would twist that post.