Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nice dong of a low there offshore. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 That’s a cutter on the 18/19th. Maybe a “where no one lives special” @Damage In Tolland will surely warn of impending doom whatever it is. The following day, branches down and puddles galore. Oh the horror. Happy tracking stick season. 5 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Really close to getting the shaft 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Antecedent airmass is junk so it would also have to cold advect too as it intenisifies. Not a lot of wiggle room. Thread the needle Christmas Miracle. It’s all we got. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Still hoping for some severe wx in Florida when I go between the 23-30. Preferably between the 24-29 b/c I fly in the 23rd and fly back the 29th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Definitely some signs of improvement at the end of the ensembles. Probably post new years it’s wintry. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: Definitely some signs of improvement at the end of the ensembles. Probably post new years it’s wintry. Yeah split flow, but enough PNA rise to help on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nice dong of a low there offshore. 19 minutes ago, dendrite said: Really close to getting the shaft After all these years I finally get a descriptive understanding /meaning of ‘shooting blanks’. Thank you ECMWF. Stay well everyone, as always. ….. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Antecedent airmass is junk so it would also have to cold advect too as it intenisifies. Not a lot of wiggle room. Yeah, that airmass is putrid here, but it might be just enough if all the stars align. The ultimate Hail Mary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 18 minutes ago, weathafella said: Definitely some signs of improvement at the end of the ensembles. Probably post new years it’s wintry. Let’s hope this is wrong https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1734275231361954045?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Rather see the 18/19th system OTS then tracking over BUF quite honestly. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let’s hope this is wrong https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1734275231361954045?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg wow, just wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Love that 12z gfs/ggem look! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: wow, just wow. It may be correct as far as legit cold because even if the pattern flipped to a December 89 setup on 12/26 it would probably take Canada 10-15 days to cool off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let’s hope this is wrong https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1734275231361954045?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Let's hope it's too slow with timing....but that is one hell of a result! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 41 minutes ago, weathafella said: Definitely some signs of improvement at the end of the ensembles. Probably post new years it’s wintry. the Pacific jet retracts pretty handily by the end of the run. this would allow for more of a typical Aleutian LP and heights in AK would recover 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On this date, 31 years ago ... I witnessed an usual occurrence from my dormitory attending college at UML. It was during the 1992 Nor'easter, a top 3 all time personal storm experience favorite. Ironically .. while skulking around Youtube over lunch today, I happened across this random video from (apparently) State College, PA. At first I thought how much that reminds me of ...'wait!' That was today! - felt as though I was meant to remember. It's just a snow squall ...but the speed in which the heavy snow column took over the scenery is remarkably similar to what I observed that faithful night of the 11th. Only, the interface I witnessed was not a transition from clear air to snow... it was wind driven heavy sheets of cold rain, demarcated by a single massive flash of lightning and the report, just prior to the flash over from silvery night right to dimly orbed street lamps through whirling snow. I watched as the sky transformed, transfixed, as I wasn't entirely certain what it was in fact I was seeing. I'd seen squalls do this... not during Nor'easters. The next dawn we awoke to 17" 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It may be correct as far as legit cold because even if the pattern flipped to a December 89 setup on 12/26 it would probably take Canada 10-15 days to cool off Yeah, that's probably correct. NA as a whole is blowtorched on most guidance through week two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let’s hope this is wrong https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1734275231361954045?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Sell at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Sell at this range It's like the models, having unwittingly been engineered with climate tendencies prior to the 'hockey stick' era of global warming, are constantly 'realizing' the predicament and making adjustments- gives the allusion to kicking the winter can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's like the models, having unwittingly engineered with climate tendencies prior to the 'hockey stick' era of global warming, are constantly 'realizing' the predicament and making adjustments- gives the allusion to kicking the winter can this would help. potent signal for significant weakening, if not an actual SSW in early Jan. the -QBO is putting in work 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this would help. potent signal for significant weakening, if not an actual SSW in early Jan. the -QBO is putting in work Perhaps ... Kind of hard to separate the two from this range, though. Considering that SSW's are correlated more so with -QBOs anyway - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Perhaps ... Kind of hard to separate the two from this range, though. Considering that SSW's are correlated more so with -QBOs anyway - i just consider warming to be a SSW when 10mb mean zonal winds become easterly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Maybe the "No changes" crew was right after all? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i just consider warming to be a SSW when 10mb mean zonal winds become easterly Warm intrusions happen frequently. Semantics but "sudden" stratospheric warming could apply to any of those. The difference is in whether or not they are of sufficient mass and even more so, whether they are down welling. When a warm region comes into detection, there's a fairly large consortium of social media personalities and Mets alike that don't make it abundantly clear they know the difference, because they immediately rush out the alarms. ...not sure why I'm telling you this... just ranting I guess. Anyway, here's the difference between the two. Top are static warm intrusions. Bottom is a pig down weller. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Maybe the "No changes" crew was right after all? They're not citing reasons why in a lot of cases - at least when I read those posts and or tweets etc... It seems they are really just hand waving and giving into persistence. It has it's value ... until it doesn't. But it hides not really having any special insight that transcends anyone else that dares venture outside the safety of both persistence, but who isn't just being a neg-head. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Maybe the "No changes" crew was right after all? Watching those blues show up from North of Alaska the whole way down through California in the long range is definitely bringing back rough memories from last year around this time.... I sort of miss watching Weather world on PBS, hoping to see their snow icon in their "long range" forecasts. It has been so long I can barely remember what it looked like. There was no Euro weeklies/monthly forecasts, just possibilities/chances back then. No punting full months in advance..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Look at the GFS for Alaska, Valdez is buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Look at the GFS for Alaska, Valdez is buried. I think they average 341 inches/year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let’s hope this is wrong https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1734275231361954045?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg I will buy that. We will be lucky to salvage Late January at this rate. God save the ski resorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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