December 2023

[Snowcrazed71]

27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Shocking. It's warm, cold and repeat. Impossible to sustain any western ridging under this pattern. 

Pacific looks like crap yet again 

Lord... Relax. Models will flip flop and go through their normal ups and downs.

Plus..having Snow in December ( especially the 1st half of the month ) in SNE would be a gift, but not the norm. 

 

29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Ensembles offer snow chances early next week with low moving out south of SNE

[UnitedWx]

2 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Lord... Relax. Models will flip flop and go through their normal ups and downs.

Plus..having Snow in December ( especially the 1st half of the month ) in SNE would be a gift, but not the norm. 

 

 

Not the norm for sure. I really don't understand why so many seem to forget this. Youth??

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Snoozer AWT. Check back in 3 weeks for most in SNE

[Snowcrazed71]

17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Snoozer AWT. Check back in 3 weeks for most in SNE

Well... As I had just mentioned in my previous post... Climatology speaking, we are right where we should be for this time of the year. If you want to see more action, perhaps you should consider moving to northern Vermont, Maine, or New Hampshire with some good elevation. Then it wouldn't be such a Snoozer for you.

P.S. Where you live.... Totally normal to not see much action yet. I guess we should expect not to see you on here for 3 weeks. 

Enjoy your break! See you later

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Greg said:

I don't think the coastal devestation reached quite 78 magnitude with 3-4 consecutive high tides but it was close. but Boston reported a peak tide of 9.35 ft (2.85 m), which was 1.05 ft (0.32 m) less than the record set in 1978.

I agree....not quite 1978, but it was close.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, weathafella said:

The Pacific doesn't look good really until near mid December.   Oh we'll get some cold shots but timing is everything probably until around 12/15.   GEFS appear to have taken a step back tonight not surprisingly.   MJO progs have been less favorable until post 12/5-7 and by the time we get the atmospheric response we're nearing mid month.   Remember folks, this year is about one day later than the earliest possible Thanksgiving.   So it's quite early still and mid December is nearly 3 weeks away.

I was hesitant to buy into some of those really favorable early month looks and figured that it would back step, but the issue is that now the people like Snowski that latched onto it like a Pitbull are going to be relentless.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was hesitant to buy into some of those really favorable early month looks and figured that it would back step, but the issue is that now the people like Snowski that latched onto it like  a Pitbull are going to be relentless.

MJO caught got in 3-4-5 but it'll progress into more favorable phases over the next couple of weeks

[Damage In Tolland]

Keep an eye on early next week 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

MJO caught got in 3-4-5 but it'll progress into more favorable phases over the next couple of weeks

Yes, I know....not concerned at all. I would much rather this than a canonical el Nino look....as it means the forcing is still west. During a warm ENSO, you would rather be trying to move the forcing east than west....much more achievable correction vector. Its like when folks are comforted by the GFS being offshore, rather than inland in a synoptic sense. But 'alas, its going to trigger some cold ENSO PTSD from the snow spazoids.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was hesitant to buy into some of those really favorable early month looks and figured that it would back step, but the issue is that now the people like Snowski that latched onto it like a Pitbull are going to be relentless.

Early Dec never looked great....esp south of us....there were some runs that looked decent for New England though because of the stout NAO block, but IMHO the best chances are NNE prior to about Dec 6-7ish.

Biggest change on the ensembles is the EPS has the MJO going decently into phase 4 now whereas most other guidance is bringing it back into the COD prior to that....so the EPS doesn't look that good for Dec 5-11ish like it did previously while the GEFS/GEPS still look pretty favorable. I don't know if the EPS is correct since it's kind of an outlier....we'll see what it does today.

 

The good news is that beyond that hasn't really changed much....it looks like we still loop back toward phase 8 just after mid-month so hopefully we get a nice run into the holidays and beyond.

[Damage In Tolland]

The Dec NYC thread is a wreck . Weenies jumping ship fast 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The Dec NYC thread is a wreck . Weenies jumping ship fast 

you're telling me

[40/70 Benchmark]

I am

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Early Dec never looked great....esp south of us....there were some runs that looked decent for New England though because of the stout NAO block, but IMHO the best chances are NNE prior to about Dec 6-7ish.

Biggest change on the ensembles is the EPS has the MJO going decently into phase 4 now whereas most other guidance is bringing it back into the COD prior to that....so the EPS doesn't look that good for Dec 5-11ish like it did previously while the GEFS/GEPS still look pretty favorable. I don't know if the EPS is correct since it's kind of an outlier....we'll see what it does today.

 

The good news is that beyond that hasn't really changed much....it looks like we still loop back toward phase 8 just after mid-month so hopefully we get a nice run into the holidays and beyond.

I would advise everyone to set expectations for around Christmas and beyond....while past mid month may be fair game, the greater likelihood is a bit later than that IMHO...best not to set up for disappointment. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am

I would advise everyone to set expectations for around Christmas and beyond....while past mid month may be fair game, the greater likelihood is a bit later than that IMHO...best not to set up for disappointment. 

That would be more toward climo anyway in El Nino....December is often a lost month, but I do like that we're seemingly in the game this month for some threats even if it's not Dec 1995.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The Dec NYC thread is a wreck . Weenies jumping ship fast 

Its several years of cool ENSO PTSD....having the MJO in the maritime continent is triggering, especially in light of having those huge NAO blocks last season not bare any fruit for the coastal plane.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You have to remove the emotion and view each season in a vacuum....you can't look at it through last season's lens or this is what you get.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That would be more toward climo anyway in El Nino....December is often a lost month, but I do like that we're seemingly in the game this month for some threats even if it's not Dec 1995.

My thoughts on the month was always serviceable and backloaded.....and you take that an bolt in a strong el Nino. The hand wringing in November is beyond me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I am going to keep abreast with the tropics more than I have in previous seasons, as that is why I missed the mild mid winter stretch last season......I don't see any deviation from the forecast as of yet....el Nino maybe peaking on the high end of my 1.7 to 1.9 range, but that is NBD.

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its several years of cool ENSO PTSD....having the MJO in the maritime continent is triggering, especially in light of having those huge NAO blocks last season not bare any fruit for the coastal plane.

That relentless Pacific jet is a killer. Every time we see western ridging try to set up it gets knocked down immediately. 

It's hard to get excited when that keeps happening but there's always a chance we can time things right occasionally. 

I do think they'll be more opportunities than last winter but talk about a low bar 

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The Dec NYC thread is a wreck . Weenies jumping ship fast 

Not jumping ship, but we are starting to see some of the same issues that have plagued us the past few winters. 
 

More concerning IMO is the cold air/TPV going to the other side of the globe which kills our cold air source. Will take a while to cool Canada again 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That relentless Pacific jet is a killer. Every time we see western ridging try to set up it gets knocked down immediately. 

It's hard to get excited when that keeps happening but there's always a chance we can time things right occasionally. 

I do think they'll be more opportunities than last winter but talk about a low bar 

I am confident that this season will provide enough high latitude blocking for that not to be a major issue for the majority of the season. Perhaps I will be wrong, but the passage of the MJO through the maritime continent in early December is not a sign of that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its several years of cool ENSO PTSD....having the MJO in the maritime continent is triggering, especially in light of having those huge NAO blocks last season not bare any fruit for the coastal plane.

 

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You have to remove the emotion and view each season in a vacuum....you can't look at it through last season's lens or this is what you get.

 

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Not jumping ship, but we are starting to see some of the same issues that have plagued us the past few winters. 
 

More concerning IMO is the cold air/TPV going to the other side of the globe which kills our cold air source. Will take a while to cool Canada again 

 

You have a point about the PV, but no one expected this season to be frigid...all the more reason to be leery of the early threats until climo catches up.

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That relentless Pacific jet is a killer. Every time we see western ridging try to set up it gets knocked down immediately. 

It's hard to get excited when that keeps happening but there's always a chance we can time things right occasionally. 

I do think they'll be more opportunities than last winter but talk about a low bar 

@bluewave has been killing the medium range the past few years. 

[CoastalWx]

I mentioned the PV last week so nothing new there. This is the look I expected before some of the guidance got weenie-ish for a few days. Hit the snooze button for 2-3 weeks I think. Maybe somehow we get a well timed event. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think this timing is perfect TBH.....the only season that I can recall to have early December snow not rot is 1995....every other large early December snowfall was skunked and nearly gone by the holidays. I am talking e MA coastal plane...obviously this is probably different in the ORH hills.

[CoastalWx]

It’s also not the same pattern as we had last year. There’s only briefly a negative PNA. Just kind of a crappy Pacific.

[Typhoon Tip]

Per my own observation, there are homages to favorability, both in observed recency, and in the pattern created by guidance, going on thru mid December  - perhaps the 2-3" last week and this deal late last eve up N hearken to being 'favored' as such. 

There are also discrete telecon modulations that blah blah might be related.

The problem ( the way I see it) is the fast nature that is physically present. It's excessive progressivity becomes a destructive interference. It's tending to "hide" potential because wave spacing is being stretched so far that new albeit transient inflections in the flow materialize due to Coriolis forcing.  Speed is competing with an El Nino.. It's sort of a split hemisphere with any correlative nature to ENSO being sheared off around 40 N.  I would even consider the lack of emerging STJ is really because of that virtual boundary is sort of 'trigger stop'

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mentioned the PV last week so nothing new there. This is the look I expected before some of the guidance got weenie-ish for a few days. Hit the snooze button for 2-3 weeks I think. Maybe somehow we get a well timed event. 

As many of us have been saying, hopefully by around Christmas time there will be some chances, but that is also not guaranteed. I know people are on edge because of last winter, but I’m surprised some seasoned posters fell for the fairy tale early and mid December models had for a few runs. Folks should know better.

[Typhoon Tip]

There is a 'signal' (more apt a period of interest..) I've been watching for Dec 4-6th.