December 2023

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, Massplow said:

What’s it looking like as far as black ice potential tonight in the Boston south area. I know most people arnt interested but trying to figure out as far as salting goes. Thank you!

I don’t see it as an issue right now.

[Typhoon Tip]

It better snow when it can or else -

...actually, I suspect the warm bias in the east and especially the NE has in part to do with the fact that like the polar regions ( relatively speaking ...) we have more room to rise than the west coast.  

Doesn't explain the Dakotas very well but that's why I say 'in part'  ... Think of it as 'trough cold' is less.   Florida and south TX warming is interesting too -

[ineedsnow]

Just went through a pretty good snow/sleet shower coming from worcester to leominster 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Just went through a pretty good snow/sleet shower coming from worcester to leominster 

2 hands on the wheel while posting combined with slippery road conditions.

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

2 hands on the wheel while posting combined with slippery road conditions.

Lol at the mall now

[Typhoon Tip]

If we could just get rid of this piece of shit we might actually have a chance at a rain --> snow  NJ model deepener out of next week. 

[wxeyeNH]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If we could just get rid of this piece of shit we might actually have a chance at a rain --> snow  NJ model deepener out of next week. 

 Pretty amazing for Dec 28th.  Perfect track and the piece of shit makes  it rain all the way up to the St. Lawrence and beyond.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

20 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

 Pretty amazing for Dec 28th.  Perfect track and the piece of shit makes  it rain all the way up to the St. Lawrence and beyond.

A week ago , When i saw 7 straight days near International falls , Minnesota modeled 850 temps At or Above 0c 850 lol I said umm ya ok this is a special kind of Turd pattern there .

I thought maybe confluence could help NNE elevations but that was even a longer shot as everyone alluded to

[Lava Rock]

 Pretty amazing for Dec 28th.  Perfect track and the piece of shit makes  it rain all the way up to the St. Lawrence and beyond.

It's gon rain. Embrace it

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

It's gon rain. Embrace it

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

There is most certainly a pattern change to colder coming , but it doesn’t look particular conductive to warning events before that look appears to wane mid month . That is generally what I take from a “ensemble” blend of many forecasters . I would probably set my sights on a couple advisory events hopefully first half of January but that is just a literal guess , maybe others think that part is more unpredictable and something bigger may pop 

[Damage In Tolland]

We had a step back today in the good look going forward . Nothing terrible but things started trending back the other way

[Sey-Mour Snow]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We had a step back today in the good look going forward . Nothing terrible but things started trending back the other way

Just bc nobody posted about it doesn’t mean it’s a step back, geps is cold as hell and gefs improved some and has a great -nao, eps remained steady

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It better snow when it can or else -

...actually, I suspect the warm bias in the east and especially the NE has in part to do with the fact that like the polar regions ( relatively speaking ...) we have more room to rise than the west coast.  

Doesn't explain the Dakotas very well but that's why I say 'in part'  ... Think of it as 'trough cold' is less.   Florida and south TX warming is interesting too -

There it is . I literally chuckle every time I see a map that says "since 1970". Just a coincidence, I know, the old 53-year normals, right? There's absolutely nothing like starting a dataset with a regression line during the absolute coldest winters of record. Now do winter warming the last 100 years.
I see Detroit is in the +5 shading. 

Let's fact check.
Warming since 1873: +2.0
Warming last 100 years: +1.2
Warming since 1970: +4.9

The brutal winters of the 1970s are the best friend of anybody who wants to make climate change (a real issue certainly) look warmer than it is.

 

If we're gonna insist on posting how much winter's warmed since 1970 instead of using a longer period of time, they need to add a chart of how much winters cooled from 1920-1970.

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just bc nobody posted about it doesn’t mean it’s a step back, geps is cold as hell and gefs improved some and has a great -nao, eps remained steady

Let em go

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

29 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

There is most certainly a pattern change to colder coming , but it doesn’t look particular conductive to warning events before that look appears to wane mid month . That is generally what I take from a “ensemble” blend of many forecasters . I would probably set my sights on a couple advisory events hopefully first half of January but that is just a literal guess , maybe others think that part is more unpredictable and something bigger may pop 

Popes cold and dry, warm and wet. Has some merit as modeled 

[MJO812]

Gefs looks really good. Maybe suppression if the TPV is too far south but we can worry about that later.

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Just went through a pretty good snow/sleet shower coming from worcester to leominster 

Line of snow showers moving through the area

[Damage In Tolland]

37 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just bc nobody posted about it doesn’t mean it’s a step back, geps is cold as hell and gefs improved some and has a great -nao, eps remained steady

Apparently you didn’t look at this then .

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Apparently you didn’t look at this then .

 

The weeklies are do or die now? Cheer up buttercup it shows a Building -NAO for mid and late January with a transient -PNA week 3 which has been the thought for quite some time for many, then pretty weeniesh Weeks 4-5 with -epo and -nao 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Apparently you didn’t look at this then .

 

When did you become Fear in Tolland?

Scared over the euro weaklies

[Damage In Tolland]

Ok. Snow n cold 4eva 

[powderfreak]

30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs looks really good. Maybe suppression if the TPV is too far south but we can worry about that later.

Have seen it on a couple runs but this place will be real lively if a couple suppressed mid-Atlantic sliders roll through.

[WinterWolf]

49 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

There is most certainly a pattern change to colder coming , but it doesn’t look particular conductive to warning events before that look appears to wane mid month . That is generally what I take from a “ensemble” blend of many forecasters . I would probably set my sights on a couple advisory events hopefully first half of January but that is just a literal guess , maybe others think that part is more unpredictable and something bigger may pop 

Details can never be determined at this lead time…anything can pop, or not. 

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The weeklies are do or die now? Cheer up buttercup it shows a Building -NAO for mid and late January with a transient -PNA week 3 which has been the thought for quite some time for many, then pretty weeniesh Weeks 4-5 with -epo and -nao 

That’s not even a bad pattern. It’s quite reminiscent of the first half of Feb ‘83. 
 

 

[qg_omega]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s not even a bad pattern. It’s quite reminiscent of the first half of Feb ‘83. 
 

 

Blocking further south now, not the same.  Further south blocking has become a winter staple

[tavwtby]

5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Just landed at PBI. 78F!!! Don’t be jelly anyone 

I'll be there in a couple weeks for a month long test, enjoy.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

31 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Blocking further south now, not the same.  Further south blocking has become a winter staple

The blocking is literally in the same exact spot as that weeklies map 

[WxWatcher007]

I didn’t realize this was a thing.

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Have seen it on a couple runs but this place will be real lively if a couple suppressed mid-Atlantic sliders roll through.

It’s been showing up on multiple sets of guidance for several days now. My advice is people prepare accordingly 

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I didn’t realize this was a thing.

 

Yeah fuck her. This whole “we’re NNE and we can take whatever comes at us and fix what breaks” is bullshit. It was communicated well. MEMA needs to take a look in the mirror.