December 2023

[jbenedet]

This is why I'm going ratter for SNE. 

This op run WILL change but it illustrates how misleading the H5 longwave pattern can be (especially on those weeklies). Even with -NAO, no problem for pacific Jet stemming from tropical pacific to cook the northeast.

 

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This is why I'm going ratter for SNE. 

This op run WILL change but it illustrates how misleading the H5 longwave pattern can be (especially on those weeklies). Even with -NAO, no problem for pacific Jet stemming from tropical pacific to cook the northeast.

 

this timeframe has been cooked for a while now... it's more what happens around NYE and beyond as heights over AK rise and polar flow gets established

[H2Otown_WX]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

They are? Thought the ensembles looked nice. 

I mean, don't ensembles look nice past D10? I feel like we're in one of those classic "moving the goalposts" scenarios.

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I mean, don't ensembles look nice past D10? I feel like we're in one of those classic "moving the goalposts" scenarios.

Keep forecasting the wrong idea over and over and over again, until it's right.  Isn't that persistence forecasting? 

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I mean, don't ensembles look nice past D10? I feel like we're in one of those classic "moving the goalposts" scenarios.

I thought most of the good looks are still where they’ve been for quite some time…thus the goalposts have stayed pretty much where they’ve been for quite sometime now…no?  

[NittanyWx]

33 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This is why I'm going ratter for SNE. 

This op run WILL change but it illustrates how misleading the H5 longwave pattern can be (especially on those weeklies). Even with -NAO, no problem for pacific Jet stemming from tropical pacific to cook the northeast.

 

Ongoing source region issue, and will continue to be an issue in early Jan. 

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, Hazey said:

Most if not all capital cities in Canada will not have a white Christmas, including some traditionally cold areas like the prarries. My wife is from Winnipeg and is going home for Christmas. No snow otg and temps in the 40’s for Saturday. Green Christmas assured. Very unusual for them.

Yeah nothing on the ground here in Toronto too. Had an inch yesterday but that melted this afternoon and expected to be in the mid 40s on Christmas. 

[Typhoon Tip]

The pattern could change and still not snow -   ...folks will claim it's moving goal posts or can kicking out of frustration.  But that's not what's going on if things break, but don't break toward model drug doses every 6 hours. 

It seems the elephant in the room is just related to snow in the model art.   I've mused in the past, as have others ..., sometimes its apparent that folks could even care less about the storm in question, and more about the cinema in the guidance leading.  Modern era of model conveyance by means of graphics on tap has created a kind of virtual escape where rationalism is fleeting.  'Nother discussion for a different type of forum. 

The storm that's likely to occur between Dec 28 and NYE was signaled using other means some 2 weeks ago.  I know. I said so myself. It started that way as many do, since then showing up in the ens and various operational versions, as a result of ...   

... A PATTERN CHANGE.   That's why it is there. 

Once the paradigm shift is completed, does it sustain?  I don't know, but for winter enthusiasts, we want it to wax and wane. Each time it cycles thru pulsations, there's likely to be a system.

Deeper into January ... other's have their seasonal prediction methods and forecasts therefrom, indicating a better winter performance.  I think in a classical sense/method background, that's the way I would lean.  However, I'm not sure we can be as reliant on those 'institutional philosophies' as we used to.  They can fail in any generation; I suspect that's more likely to occur in recent decade and moving forward.      

 

[dendrite]

Meanwhile the euro is pretty snowy for Maine with the 12/28 system.

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Meanwhile the euro is pretty snowy for Maine with the 12/28 system.

Got colder but not enough for most of us. But it helps them out up there. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

22 years. Wonder what it looks like if you have a better sample size. No doubt it's warmer, but even our temperatures are measured in 30yr bins.

Yeah what would have that map looked like if you started in 1985 instead of 2000?…it would be dark blue shades for “top 10% in snow cover increase”….no doubt that long term you’ll see snow cover days decrease with warming temps, but that 22 years doesn’t tell you much anything. You get a few snowy winters like the 2007-2011 period and it changes the math very quickly. 

[Damage In Tolland]

This season reminds me of one in the early 2000’s. I don’t recall the year but the first inch of snowfall at BDL was not until like late January or even into Feb. I believe it was an El Niño year. 

[codfishsnowman]

I didn't think we would go down through December without any measurable snow but it looks like it's possible. Doesn't happen often but I remember winter 06-07 where we didn't get measurable til the end of January.

[codfishsnowman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This season reminds me of one in the early 2000’s. I don’t recall the year but the first inch of snowfall at BDL was not until like late January or even into Feb. I believe it was an El Niño year. 

06-07

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, wx2fish said:

The East and especially NE has furnaced over the past several years relative to the Plains/West in DJF. My guess is there is a regression to the background warming trend at some point. 

Yeah I’ve posted various maps that show this…CC doesn’t occur evenly on the spacial/temporal scale. Some areas accelerate and then stall (or even decrease a bit) before resuming warming. Plains are a great example with the rapid warming late 20th century and then a slight negative trend since the late 90s. I’m sure we’ll go through a period of slower or non-existent warming for a time..and it will likely be in conjunction with more warming in places like northern Rockies and western Canada. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said:

06-07

It may have been that winter. That would make sense. I remember thinking it wasn’t possible yet it happened. I’m starting to get those nasty thoughts creeping in . 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

51 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I thought most of the good looks are still where they’ve been for quite some time…thus the goalposts have stayed pretty much where they’ve been for quite sometime now…no?  

Even if we start improving storm tracks, we still have a source region issue, as has been pointed out by many Mets. So yeah, I’d favor way up and way in through the first week of Jan.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Even if we start improving storm tracks, we still have a source region issue, as has been pointed out by many Mets. So yeah, I’d favor way up and way in through the first week of Jan.

the source region drastically improves, though. instead of a Pacific onslaught, you're getting air out of AK / northern Canada and split flow underneath. it's a completely different pattern

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, HiDefinitionNucleicAcid said:

Thought this article might be relevant: 

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/snow-cover-decline-boston-study/3106352/

Quote:

"Boston and Connecticut have each lost upwards of 30 days of winter snow cover between 2000 and 2022, according to Salem State University professor Stephen Young, who tells NBC10 Boston, 'the winter of my childhood is long gone' "

If you're north & west of I-495 there are probably some good winters left for you. IMBY, we are solidly in the red area west of Boston, and that this area is leading globally for snow cover declines is extremely depressing, although probably not much of a surprise for those of us who have lived here all our lives. Unless this trend reverses, (or a VEI 7) I think what the professor said is true for the coastal plain

boston doesnt even keep track of snowcover anymore. And how can they lose 30-days when they only averaged 35-40 days (1"+) to begin with. I mean I dont live there, but sounds like a bunch of crap to me. 

Here is nyc avg days with 1" snowcover

NYC

1920s- 29 days

1930s- 21 days

1940s- 32 days

1950s- 15 days

1960s- 28 days

1970s- 25 days

1980s- 19 days

1990s- M

2000s- 20 days

2010s- 27 days

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

This is why I'm going ratter for SNE. 

This op run WILL change but it illustrates how misleading the H5 longwave pattern can be (especially on those weeklies). Even with -NAO, no problem for pacific Jet stemming from tropical pacific to cook the northeast.

 

All it takes is one major blizzard or snow storm. I think we can squeeze that out at least.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, met_fan said:

So the last twenty years would knock Boston down two or three points

I would assume

[Go Kart Mozart]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This season reminds me of one in the early 2000’s. I don’t recall the year but the first inch of snowfall at BDL was not until like late January or even into Feb. I believe it was an El Niño year. 

01-02.  I remember watching a football game at Ramapo HS in NJ, December, temp in the upper 70's, wearing a T-shirt.  Apropos of nothing, Greg Olsen played in that game.  I recall the rest of the winter blew chunks, but the next two were first rate.

[Snowcrazed71]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the source region drastically improves, though. instead of a Pacific onslaught, you're getting air out of AK / northern Canada and split flow underneath. it's a completely different pattern

I just don't know what to believe anymore. The other guy, jBenedict.. I'll call him the pope? He's pretty sure that the whole winter is a ratter?

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

01-02.  I remember watching a football game at Ramapo HS in NJ, December, temp in the upper 70's, wearing a T-shirt.  Apropos of nothing, Greg Olsen played in that game.  I recall the rest of the winter blew chunks, but the next two were first rate.

It also may have been that winter. It was before my time on the boards and that timeline seems better than 06-07. Either way this just has started to give me that feeling . Not quite there yet.. but it’s out of the realm. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I thought most of the good looks are still where they’ve been for quite some time…thus the goalposts have stayed pretty much where they’ve been for quite sometime now…no?  

I think for the most part ya… but as far as snowing in SNE along the CP I see hints in posts that the first week of January is meh still with temps but that is far enough out to be up in the air .. I dunno . The reality is ..Even close but no cigar is much better than now . I guess I’m saying first week of January may step down into an interior SNE  look instead of rains to maines . But I could be reading the tea leaves wrong 

[roardog]

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the source region drastically improves, though. instead of a Pacific onslaught, you're getting air out of AK / northern Canada and split flow underneath. it's a completely different pattern

Anyone who can’t see the difference in the pattern across North America on this map compared to what it is now is just trolling or blind. Even average temperatures in early January are cold over here and in New England.

[kdxken]

5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I just don't know what to believe anymore. The other guy, jBenedict.. I'll call him the pope? He's pretty sure that the whole winter is a ratter?

 

[NorEastermass128]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It also may have been that winter. It was before my time on the boards and that timeline seems better than 06-07. Either way this just has started to give me that feeling . Not quite there yet.. but it’s out of the realm. 

Jan 13, 2000 was the first measurable (or 1”) at BOS that winter I believe. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I just don't know what to believe anymore. The other guy, jBenedict.. I'll call him the pope? He's pretty sure that the whole winter is a ratter?

Nobody knows what the rest of the winter holds , keep it together weenie 

[DavisStraight]

31 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

06-07

If I remember correctly it was good til then end once it started.