December 2023

[mreaves]

37 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Well , there is a reason I travel for snow . Life is short and if I can’t I’d rather invest emotionally in something that will bring me more happiness than frustration . I mean I’d go back to Florida where girls prance around in bathing suits and are under 200 pounds otherwise .

I would like to see data on snow cover days for areas that were marginal winter weather wise and warmed over the last twenty years . Like maybe Philly , NYC , L.I and the immediate burbs as well as S coastal SNE .

Seems like there are more high-moderate to high events based on more juicier systems seemingly present which can help total snowfall numbers where there is a little more temp wiggle room but I would be curious if total snow cover days are decreasing simultaneously for the areas I mentioned . During slower winters I do ponder whether  at some point 20 -25 or so years from now if the basic New England CP SE of 500’ MHT to ORH just turns into what upper interior mid Atlantic to NYC and S coast has or maybe that isn’t the general case 

So, you're going to Nunavik?

[michsnowfreak]

You guys are talking about a White Christmas, I had just looked a bunch of historical odds on this. I have mentioned this before, but no idea why Boston doesnt do snow depth anymore since 2003. Stations in the box nws are literally the ONLY ones I can find anywhere (of places that get snow) that dont do snow depth. 

 

White Christmases in Detroit are pretty much 50/50 (officially 47%), and the last 20 years saw 10 white, 10 not...2022, 2020, 2017, 2016, 2012, 2010, 2008, 2005, 2004, 2003. Bostons historical probability shows 1 in 4 Christmases should be white, yet they have only probably had 2 in the past 20 years (based on what you guys said). It seems more flukey than anything that snowfall increased and white christmases disappeared during the 2000s/10s.

 

Midwest/Great Lakes
Marquette – 95% (1961-2022)
International Falls – 95% (1948-2022)
Sault Ste Marie – 94% (1931-2022)
Alpena – 79% (1916-2022)
Minneapolis – 72% (1899-2022)
Green Bay – 68% (1948-2022)
Grand Rapids – 64% (1903-2022)
Dubuque – 57% (1896-2022)
Flint –-- 56% (1921 – 2022)
Lansing – 55% (1863-2022)
Milwaukee – 50% (1893-2022)
Detroit – 47% (1900-2022) 
Toledo –- 46% (1893-2022)
Chicago – 45% (1901-2022)
Cleveland – 42% (1893-2022)
Fort Wayne – 40% (1909-2022)
Omaha – 37% (1948-2022)
Indianapolis – 28% (1896-2022)
Columbus – 27% (1948-2022)
Kansas City – 21% (1893-2022)
Louisville – 15% (1900-2022)

Northeast
Caribou – 93% (1940-2022)
Burlington – 74% (1896-2022)
Portland (ME) – 59% (1893-2022)
Buffalo – 58% (1893-2022)
Albany – 42% (1938-2022)
Pittsburgh – 31% (1948-2022)
Boston – 24% (1891-2003)
New York City – 14% (1912-2022)
Philadelphia – 13% (1893-2022)
Washington DC – 10% (1893-2022)

Mountain West
Salt Lake City – 52% (1948-2022)
Denver – 38% (1921-2022)
 

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The Weather Chanell this morning reported that if things remain the same in regards to snowcover that it will be a record.....consdering the record warmth that is likely to occur it is extremely likely that Christmas 2023 will  establish a new record.

something like only 15% of the country has snowcover right now-which is normal for mid-November

[PWMan]

2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

So, you're going to Nunavik?

Yesterday my oldest son accepted a broadcasting gig with a summer college baseball league (sort of like the Cape League) in Palmer, AK. My wife and I are looking into visiting during the summer, but last night I weenied out looking at their current conditions and forecast. Days and days of snow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The two worst investments I've made the past few years

1) A snow shovel - my girlfriend is from Florida and moved up here in like 2017. She had no idea there were shovels specific for snow and used a garden shovel. 

2) Mac Jones jersey 

Can I return both?

Keep the jersey and use it to wipe summeh swamp ass. Return the shovel. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Well , there is a reason I travel for snow . Life is short and if I can’t I’d rather invest emotionally in something that will bring me more happiness than frustration . I mean I’d go back to Florida where girls prance around in bathing suits and are under 200 pounds otherwise .

I would like to see data on snow cover days for areas that were marginal winter weather wise and warmed over the last twenty years . Like maybe Philly , NYC , L.I and the immediate burbs as well as S coastal SNE .

Seems like there are more high-moderate to high events based on more juicier systems seemingly present which can help total snowfall numbers where there is a little more temp wiggle room but I would be curious if total snow cover days are decreasing simultaneously for the areas I mentioned . During slower winters I do ponder whether  at some point 20 -25 or so years from now if the basic New England CP SE of 500’ MHT to ORH just turns into what upper interior mid Atlantic to NYC and S coast has or maybe that isn’t the general case 

They are....east coast has seen increased snowfall, but a decrease in snow cover days...larger storms, but less storms.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

2010

That tracks, we had a crusty few inches here.

[HiDefinitionNucleicAcid]

51 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Well , there is a reason I travel for snow . Life is short and if I can’t I’d rather invest emotionally in something that will bring me more happiness than frustration . I mean I’d go back to Florida where girls prance around in bathing suits and are under 200 pounds otherwise .

I would like to see data on snow cover days for areas that were marginal winter weather wise and warmed over the last twenty years . Like maybe Philly , NYC , L.I and the immediate burbs as well as S coastal SNE .

Seems like there are more high-moderate to high events based on more juicier systems seemingly present which can help total snowfall numbers where there is a little more temp wiggle room but I would be curious if total snow cover days are decreasing simultaneously for the areas I mentioned . During slower winters I do ponder whether  at some point 20 -25 or so years from now if the basic New England CP SE of 500’ MHT to ORH just turns into what upper interior mid Atlantic to NYC and S coast has or maybe that isn’t the general case 

Thought this article might be relevant: 

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/snow-cover-decline-boston-study/3106352/

Quote:

"Boston and Connecticut have each lost upwards of 30 days of winter snow cover between 2000 and 2022, according to Salem State University professor Stephen Young, who tells NBC10 Boston, 'the winter of my childhood is long gone' "

If you're north & west of I-495 there are probably some good winters left for you. IMBY, we are solidly in the red area west of Boston, and that this area is leading globally for snow cover declines is extremely depressing, although probably not much of a surprise for those of us who have lived here all our lives. Unless this trend reverses, (or a VEI 7) I think what the professor said is true for the coastal plain

[STILL N OF PIKE]

16 minutes ago, mreaves said:

So, you're going to Nunavik?

Lol NNE elevations should be good for a couple more decades . Probably more 4 footers coming 

[Brewbeer]

24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The two worst investments I've made the past few years

1) A snow shovel - my girlfriend is from Florida and moved up here in like 2017. She had no idea there were shovels specific for snow and used a garden shovel. 

2) Mac Jones jersey 

Can I return both?

re-gift them, no need for last minute holiday shopping

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

You guys are talking about a White Christmas, I had just looked a bunch of historical odds on this. I have mentioned this before, but no idea why Boston doesnt do snow depth anymore since 2003. Stations in the box nws are literally the ONLY ones I can find anywhere (of places that get snow) that dont do snow depth. 

 

White Christmases in Detroit are pretty much 50/50 (officially 47%), and the last 20 years saw 10 white, 10 not...2022, 2020, 2017, 2016, 2012, 2010, 2008, 2005, 2004, 2003. Bostons historical probability shows 1 in 4 Christmases should be white, yet they have only probably had 2 in the past 20 years (based on what you guys said). It seems more flukey than anything that snowfall increased and white christmases disappeared during the 2000s/10s.

 

Midwest/Great Lakes
Marquette – 95% (1961-2022)
International Falls – 95% (1948-2022)
Sault Ste Marie – 94% (1931-2022)
Alpena – 79% (1916-2022)
Minneapolis – 72% (1899-2022)
Green Bay – 68% (1948-2022)
Grand Rapids – 64% (1903-2022)
Dubuque – 57% (1896-2022)
Flint –-- 56% (1921 – 2022)
Lansing – 55% (1863-2022)
Milwaukee – 50% (1893-2022)
Detroit – 47% (1900-2022) 
Toledo –- 46% (1893-2022)
Chicago – 45% (1901-2022)
Cleveland – 42% (1893-2022)
Fort Wayne – 40% (1909-2022)
Omaha – 37% (1948-2022)
Indianapolis – 28% (1896-2022)
Columbus – 27% (1948-2022)
Kansas City – 21% (1893-2022)
Louisville – 15% (1900-2022)

Northeast
Caribou – 93% (1940-2022)
Burlington – 74% (1896-2022)
Portland (ME) – 59% (1893-2022)
Buffalo – 58% (1893-2022)
Albany – 42% (1938-2022)
Pittsburgh – 31% (1948-2022)
Boston – 24% (1891-2003)
New York City – 14% (1912-2022)
Philadelphia – 13% (1893-2022)
Washington DC – 10% (1893-2022)

Mountain West
Salt Lake City – 52% (1948-2022)
Denver – 38% (1921-2022)
 

Flukes is exactly what it is…

[CoastalWx]

22 years. Wonder what it looks like if you have a better sample size. No doubt it's warmer, but even our temperatures are measured in 30yr bins.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You wonder if at some point GW slows, too....perhaps some modifications being made in conjunction with natural variability. Just a thought before anyone jumps down my throat...I am not denying or disputing anything.

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

Some people on here act like we live in the Mid-Atlantic when it comes to snow. lol That ain't happening, at least not in our lifetimes. We will always have good and bad winters. Everything goes in cycles. In fact, the amount of snow for this area has been on the increase the last few decades so I don't know why everyone always freaks out each winter. lol I know we've had a shitty stretch lately but the 1980s were a lot worse. It WILL snow again people just relax. lol

[Hazey]

Most if not all capital cities in Canada will not have a white Christmas, including some traditionally cold areas like the prarries. My wife is from Winnipeg and is going home for Christmas. No snow otg and temps in the 40’s for Saturday. Green Christmas assured. Very unusual for them.

[michsnowfreak]

25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

something like only 15% of the country has snowcover right now-which is normal for mid-November

National snowcover is 15.4%. Last Christmas, 53.0% of the nation was covered in snow.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

27 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

You guys are talking about a White Christmas, I had just looked a bunch of historical odds on this. I have mentioned this before, but no idea why Boston doesnt do snow depth anymore since 2003. Stations in the box nws are literally the ONLY ones I can find anywhere (of places that get snow) that dont do snow depth. 

 

White Christmases in Detroit are pretty much 50/50 (officially 47%), and the last 20 years saw 10 white, 10 not...2022, 2020, 2017, 2016, 2012, 2010, 2008, 2005, 2004, 2003. Bostons historical probability shows 1 in 4 Christmases should be white, yet they have only probably had 2 in the past 20 years (based on what you guys said). It seems more flukey than anything that snowfall increased and white christmases disappeared during the 2000s/10s.

 

Midwest/Great Lakes
Marquette – 95% (1961-2022)
International Falls – 95% (1948-2022)
Sault Ste Marie – 94% (1931-2022)
Alpena – 79% (1916-2022)
Minneapolis – 72% (1899-2022)
Green Bay – 68% (1948-2022)
Grand Rapids – 64% (1903-2022)
Dubuque – 57% (1896-2022)
Flint –-- 56% (1921 – 2022)
Lansing – 55% (1863-2022)
Milwaukee – 50% (1893-2022)
Detroit – 47% (1900-2022) 
Toledo –- 46% (1893-2022)
Chicago – 45% (1901-2022)
Cleveland – 42% (1893-2022)
Fort Wayne – 40% (1909-2022)
Omaha – 37% (1948-2022)
Indianapolis – 28% (1896-2022)
Columbus – 27% (1948-2022)
Kansas City – 21% (1893-2022)
Louisville – 15% (1900-2022)

Northeast
Caribou – 93% (1940-2022)
Burlington – 74% (1896-2022)
Portland (ME) – 59% (1893-2022)
Buffalo – 58% (1893-2022)
Albany – 42% (1938-2022)
Pittsburgh – 31% (1948-2022)
Boston – 24% (1891-2003)
New York City – 14% (1912-2022)
Philadelphia – 13% (1893-2022)
Washington DC – 10% (1893-2022)

Mountain West
Salt Lake City – 52% (1948-2022)
Denver – 38% (1921-2022)
 

It’ll be interesting to see when we reach 30 years and can draw some real conclusions. It might be a fluke, but I suspect it’s at least in part to December becoming more hostile to winter weather. Not saying we’ll never see a white Christmas again, but the numbers definitely raise and eyebrow 

[wx2fish]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You wonder if at some point GW slows, too....perhaps some modifications being made in conjunction with natural variability. Just a thought before anyone jumps down my throat...I am not denying or disputing anything.

The East and especially NE has furnaced over the past several years relative to the Plains/West in DJF. My guess is there is a regression to the background warming trend at some point. 

[Supernovice]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

22 years. Wonder what it looks like if you have a better sample size. No doubt it's warmer, but even our temperatures are measured in 30yr bins.

To your point, usually when you see 'odd' data selections there's a reason.  I bet if you went to 30- you would include some of the mid 1990's winters and the deviation would look a whole lot less impressive. Let's see when we get to 2030- could be even worse who knows?

[michsnowfreak]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

22 years. Wonder what it looks like if you have a better sample size. No doubt it's warmer, but even our temperatures are measured in 30yr bins.

 

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You wonder if at some point GW slows, too....perhaps some modifications being made in conjunction with natural variability. Just a thought before anyone jumps down my throat...I am not denying or disputing anything.

 

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’ll be interesting to see when we reach 30 years and can draw some real conclusions. It might be a fluke, but I suspect it’s at least in part to December becoming more hostile to winter weather. Not saying we’ll never see a white Christmas again, but the numbers definitely raise and eyebrow 

White Christmases havent really been affected away from the east coast. And the east coast has seen its share of early season snowstorms over the past few decades. Seems flukey to me.

Since 2000...

New York City: 1 of 23 Christmases white

Providence: 2 of 23 Christmases white

Albany: 7 of 23 Christmases white

Pittsburgh: 7 of 23 Christmases white

Portland: 9 of 23 Christmases white

Chicago: 9 of 23 Christmases white

Cleveland: 10 of 23 Christmases white

Detroit: 12 of 23 Christmases white

Buffalo: 15 of 23 Christmases white

Minneapolis: 16 of 23 Christmases white

Burlington: 17 of 23 Christmases white

 

For Boston, from 1923-1944, only 1 Christmas was white. Though its happened several times, Boston has never had more than 2 White Christmases in a row.

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

35 minutes ago, HiDefinitionNucleicAcid said:

Thought this article might be relevant: 

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/snow-cover-decline-boston-study/3106352/

Quote:

"Boston and Connecticut have each lost upwards of 30 days of winter snow cover between 2000 and 2022, according to Salem State University professor Stephen Young, who tells NBC10 Boston, 'the winter of my childhood is long gone' "

If you're north & west of I-495 there are probably some good winters left for you. IMBY, we are solidly in the red area west of Boston, and that this area is leading globally for snow cover declines is extremely depressing, although probably not much of a surprise for those of us who have lived here all our lives. Unless this trend reverses, (or a VEI 7) I think what the professor said is true for the coastal plain

This is exactly what I have been getting at . Growing up we had so many periods of extended snowcover . And it also used to snow and include Decembers. We aren’t just dreaming this stuff up . That’s why I’m such a snowpack fan. We basically have about 60 days now that can can snow and produce extended winter .

[leo2000]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

It appears BOS stopped reporting snow depth after the 2003-2004 winter. So I have no idea what station they are using to determine anything past December 2003 for snow depth and white Xmas.

We obviously know 2009 had snow there but in more marginal years, I'm not sure what they are using. I don't even think 2010 was that marginal either.

The problem is it looks like a brief -EPO as the subseasonal models want to bring back a +EPO and negative PNA. 

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s Possible Greta hacked the data set and map

How dare she!

[met_fan]

You guys are talking about a White Christmas, I had just looked a bunch of historical odds on this. I have mentioned this before, but no idea why Boston doesnt do snow depth anymore since 2003. Stations in the box nws are literally the ONLY ones I can find anywhere (of places that get snow) that dont do snow depth. 
 
White Christmases in Detroit are pretty much 50/50 (officially 47%), and the last 20 years saw 10 white, 10 not...2022, 2020, 2017, 2016, 2012, 2010, 2008, 2005, 2004, 2003. Bostons historical probability shows 1 in 4 Christmases should be white, yet they have only probably had 2 in the past 20 years (based on what you guys said). It seems more flukey than anything that snowfall increased and white christmases disappeared during the 2000s/10s.
 
Midwest/Great Lakes
Marquette – 95% (1961-2022)
International Falls – 95% (1948-2022)
Sault Ste Marie – 94% (1931-2022)
Alpena – 79% (1916-2022)
Minneapolis – 72% (1899-2022)
Green Bay – 68% (1948-2022)
Grand Rapids – 64% (1903-2022)
Dubuque – 57% (1896-2022)
Flint –-- 56% (1921 – 2022)
Lansing – 55% (1863-2022)
Milwaukee – 50% (1893-2022)
Detroit – 47% (1900-2022) 
Toledo –- 46% (1893-2022)
Chicago – 45% (1901-2022)
Cleveland – 42% (1893-2022)
Fort Wayne – 40% (1909-2022)
Omaha – 37% (1948-2022)
Indianapolis – 28% (1896-2022)
Columbus – 27% (1948-2022)
Kansas City – 21% (1893-2022)
Louisville – 15% (1900-2022)
Northeast
Caribou – 93% (1940-2022)
Burlington – 74% (1896-2022)
Portland (ME) – 59% (1893-2022)
Buffalo – 58% (1893-2022)
Albany – 42% (1938-2022)
Pittsburgh – 31% (1948-2022)
Boston – 24% (1891-2003)
New York City – 14% (1912-2022)
Philadelphia – 13% (1893-2022)
Washington DC – 10% (1893-2022)
Mountain West
Salt Lake City – 52% (1948-2022)
Denver – 38% (1921-2022)
 

So the last twenty years would knock Boston down two or three points

[HiDefinitionNucleicAcid]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is exactly what I have been getting at . Growing up we had so many periods of extended snowcover . And it also used to snow and include Decembers. We aren’t just dreaming this stuff up . That’s why I’m such a snowpack fan. We basically have about 60 days now that can can snow and produce extended winter .

Agreed, from what I can remember of the early 90's, we lived much closer to the coast in Marshfield, and when I was about 4-5 yrs old, one winter I remember my mother building an igloo on our back porch for me that lasted months that winter, much longer than it ever would these days :/

[RDRY]

Euro is fun. Perfect evolution, perfect track, near-perfect climo. Result ... rain into Canada. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Ball shrinking New Year's Eve on euro.

[H2Otown_WX]

Well, things are still looking bleak with the Solstice upon us. Since DIT won't do the honors today:

 

 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Well, things are still looking bleak with the Solstice upon us. Since DIT won't do the honors today:

 

 

They are? Thought the ensembles looked nice. 

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

The two worst investments I've made the past few years

1) A snow shovel - my girlfriend is from Florida and moved up here in like 2017. She had no idea there were shovels specific for snow and used a garden shovel. 

2) Mac Jones jersey 

Can I return both?

Sell the jersey, keep the girlfriend