December 2023

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

If we’re basically shut out by 1/10 and we’re entering a more hostile look by then, my money will be on a rat. I’m not there yet, but getting close. 

Define rat....this isn't going the way of last year.....if anywhere in the lower terrain of Mass gets less snow than last year, then I'll shave "NorEastermass128" into my balls and post to social media.

[LibertyBell]

On 11/21/2023 at 4:26 PM, weatherwiz said:

Agreed, I'm still feeling 1957-1958 vibes. The signals we're starting to see for December are quite encouraging. what I would really hate to see are signals of a strengthening and dominating PV, which nothing has really suggested. Obviously we'll see some seasonal strengthening, but if the PV fails to become established moving into or through first half of December...I expect blocking begins to set in and we're off to the races as we get a much more favorable VP over the CONUS. 

Did 1957-58 have a very mild December too? I know February and March were absolutely amazing.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, Layman said:

 

Imagine what the Venusian ski industry was like before the collapse.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/12/venus-was-like-earth-until-climate-change-uninhabitable/ 

VENUS WAS ONCE EARTH-LIKE, BUT THEN THE MJO WENT INTO PHASE 5

[Eskimo Joe]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like there are two inflection points for this winter.....the first one represented by whether or not we could pull a good event or two in December to really be able to pull a rabbit from the hat and get an epic season.....that was possible, but looks to be going by the wayside.

The second more important inflection point is to get a good event or two in early January before things go sideways for again while the tropospheric energy fluxes into the stratosphere. I think this will be necessary for an above average snowfall season across much of SNE because getting above climo will be a tall task if we wait until the SSW begins to pay dividends late month and into February.

This is mainly for SNE, as NNE as already done okay and the mid Atlantic only needs one major event to do well.

 

Uh, no. We're going to need several events down here. We've almost can kicked 30% of winter down here with nothing to show for it and there's already talk of hostile periods during peak climo. We need a miracle below 40N.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Did 1957-58 have a very mild December too? I know February and March were absolutely amazing.

 

I know 14-15 had 73 degrees on Xmas eve…so there’s that. 

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Did 1957-58 have a very mild December too? I know February and March were absolutely amazing.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Uh, no. We're going to need several events down here. We've almost can kicked 30% of winter down here with nothing to show for it and there's already talk of hostile periods during peak climo. We need a miracle below 40N.

Dude, you average 20"....you may get that in 10 hours between about Jan 25 and March 1.

[Snowcrazed71]

21 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

If we’re basically shut out by 1/10 and we’re entering a more hostile look by then, my money will be on a rat. I’m not there yet, but getting close. 

Who came up with Rat or Ratter anyway? 

Do we have a name if it turns out to be amazing... Like .. Goldilocks? 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude, you average 20"....you may get that in 10 hours between about Jan 25 and March 1.

circa January 2016 lol

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Who came up with Rat or Ratter anyway? 

Do we have a name if it turns out to be amazing... Like .. Goldilocks? 

The people who hate Brad Marchand 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Who came up with Rat or Ratter anyway? 

Do we have a name if it turns out to be amazing... Like .. Goldilocks? 

Jerry, I think.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

circa January 2016 lol

Precisely....and February 1983.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Precisely....and February 1983.

Probably the best storm in that kind of a strong el nino since there was over a foot of snow all the up to your latitude, I think?

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Probably the best storm in that kind of a strong el nino since there was over a foot of snow all the up to your latitude, I think?

 

Yea, its was a slightly toned down version of 1/7/1996 in that raked right up the coast....I got like 16" to the NW of Boston.

[kdxken]

44 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh, so now we’re not out of this hostile period yet, and we’re already talking about another hostile period, before we even get to a decent period?   Lmao…wow were in trouble.  It’s getting tougher to keep up with all the talk of hostile periods. 

We tried to tell you. You just wouldn't listen...

[kdxken]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Precisely....and February 1983.

Now we're talking about 1983. Curious when was the last time anyone heard this phrase, "got to get that off the driveway or It will freeze solid and be there all winter"

[Typhoon Tip]

May I just point out some 'snow logic' here? 

Assuming folks equate snow with winter:  If one's regional climate receives 90% of their annual snow after January 1, how can December = 30% can kicking?  - especially when ( I don't think ) there was much of a forecast from any source that actually needed to be delayed during these last 3 weeks.  Maybe I'm mistaken but it seems the consensus was pretty robust on that. 

It may be semantics to say 30% in that context, .. .because it sounds more dramatic and the point is really just an emotional one in the first place. I get it.   But ... that can be ameliorated by one's expectations being built for the right reason, and/or not forgetting the right rationale in general along the way. 

Two aspects:  

1, December climo is iffy for snow even as far N as Central NE.  Have to get elevation assist/latitude = NNE. That's definitely going to be true as certain changes continue to creep in a subtly force changes that no one is prepared/willing to admit are already happening  ( - yes, that back-handedness is intended lol). 

2, altho I'm not certain El Nino has been exceptionally well coupled and forcing all this patternization of the hemisphere since mid Novie or whenever, but given how Dec has gone, the evidence is sort of damning. The multi ENSO - linear correlations tend toward milder/rainier Decembers.  

I think   (1+2 + d(n-climate) )/3 = low expectations and if anything ... a remarkably good fit for what has transpired.  Even if #2 is really more of a RONI thing than El Nino, ...meh.. luck favors those that put in the work (usually).  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, kdxken said:

Now we're talking about 1983. Curious when was the last time anyone heard this phrase, "got to get that off the driveway or It will freeze solid and be there all winter"

Now more like "got to get that off the driveway or it will met before I can make weenie snowbank piles"

[40/70 Benchmark]

The forcing from el Nino is so far west that it actually bolstered the warm December idea.

[DavisStraight]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

May I just point out a some 'snow logic' here? 

Assuming folks equate snow with winter:  If one's regional climate receives 90% of their annual snow after January 1, how can December = 30% can kicking?  - especially when ( I don't think ) there was much of a forecast from any source that actually needed to be delayed during these last 3 weeks.  Maybe I'm mistaken but it seems the consensus was pretty robust on that. 

It may be semantics to say 30% in that context, .. .because it sounds more dramatic and the point is really just an emotional one in the first place. I get it.   But ... that can be ameliorated by one's expectations being built for the right reason, and/or not forgetting the right rationale in general along the way. 

Two aspects:  

1, December climo is iffy for snow even as far N as Central NE.  Half to get elevation assist/latitude = NNE. That's definitely going to be true as certain changes continue to creep in a subtly force changes that no one is prepared/willing to admit are already happening  ( - yes, that back-handedness is intended lol). 

2, altho I'm not certain El Nino has been exceptionally well coupled and forcing all this patternization of the hemisphere since mid Novie or whenever, but given how Dec has gone, the evidence is sort of damning. The multi ENSO - linear correlations tend toward milder/rainier Decembers.  

I think   (1+2)/3 = low expectations and if anything ... a remarkably good fit for what has transpired.  Even if #2 is really more of a RONI thing than El Nino, ...meh.. luck favors those that put in the work (usually).  

I think they're going by months with Dec, Jan and Feb being snow months, nothing in Dec is 1/3 of the snow months gone.

[FXWX]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

May I just point out a some 'snow logic' here? 

Assuming folks equate snow with winter:  If one's regional climate receives 90% of their annual snow after January 1, how can December = 30% can kicking?  - especially when ( I don't think ) there was much of a forecast from any source that actually needed to be delayed during these last 3 weeks.  Maybe I'm mistaken but it seems the consensus was pretty robust on that. 

It may be semantics to say 30% in that context, .. .because it sounds more dramatic and the point is really just an emotional one in the first place. I get it.   But ... that can be ameliorated by one's expectations being built for the right reason, and/or not forgetting the right rationale in general along the way. 

Two aspects:  

1, December climo is iffy for snow even as far N as Central NE.  Have to get elevation assist/latitude = NNE. That's definitely going to be true as certain changes continue to creep in a subtly force changes that no one is prepared/willing to admit are already happening  ( - yes, that back-handedness is intended lol). 

2, altho I'm not certain El Nino has been exceptionally well coupled and forcing all this patternization of the hemisphere since mid Novie or whenever, but given how Dec has gone, the evidence is sort of damning. The multi ENSO - linear correlations tend toward milder/rainier Decembers.  

I think   (1+2)/3 = low expectations and if anything ... a remarkably good fit for what has transpired.  Even if #2 is really more of a RONI thing than El Nino, ...meh.. luck favors those that put in the work (usually). 

 

[jbenedet]

Pattern is improving but from such a terrible point.

I'm comfortable going ratter for SNE before first day of winter. Some observations on why:

1) Generally: Northern stream is traversing our region when big storms are not nearby. Said differently, snow potential is highest for small disturbances, rain potential is highest for strong disturbances. N to slightly BN happening mostly with dry conditions. AN conditions happening mostly with wet conditions.

2) Generally: The Pacific jet is producing our big storms; and even with -NAO in place, and blocking, sig El Nino conditions are sufficient to overwhelm confluence and the BL with p-type/accumulation issues. Blocking won't flee it will, "strangely" erode.

3) Snow-cover near all time lows by Jan 1; this includes our key cold source regions in Southern Canada. 

[FXWX]

Great post Tip... But you have to stop using logic and solid meteorological reason, it spoils the negative theme of this thread.  Lol...

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The forcing from el Nino is so far west that it actually bolstered the warm December idea.

probably ..sure.  But I to be blunt, I haven't seen an actual pattern in the models or verification that is hugely clad warm ENSO - it's almost like we're achieving the climate expectation through a smokescreen of distractions or something.  Rumor has it China/Eurasia has been cold recently but I haven't validated. 

Which is why I wonder/leave the discussion open to some RONIness ( I'm having pizza dunnite. mmm)   lol

[jbenedet]

the interior SE and mid atlantic have better chances of hooking up with big snows in January; than SNE,  I think. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Wasn’t there a decent December snower the day after last years GTG for CT folk , like a little powder puff event 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Pattern is improving but from such a terrible point.

I'm comfortable going ratter for SNE before first day of winter. Some observations on why:

1) Generally: Northern stream is traversing our region when big storms are not nearby. Said differently, snow potential is highest for small disturbances, rain potential is highest for strong disturbances. N to slightly BN happening mostly with dry conditions. AN conditions happening mostly with wet conditions.

2) Generally: The Pacific jet is producing our big storms; and even with -NAO in place, and blocking, sig El Nino conditions are sufficient to overwhelm confluence and the BL with p-type/accumulation issues. Blocking won't flee it will, "strangely" erode.

3) Snow-cover near all time lows by Jan 1; this includes our key cold source regions in Southern Canada. 

Interesting take...this is probably why some of the -PDO years sucked in this area. We'll just have to hope that changes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

probably ..sure.  But I to be blunt, I haven't seen an actual pattern in the models or verification that is hugely clad warm ENSO - it's almost like we achieving the climate expectation through a smokescreen of distractions or something.  Rumor has it China/Eurasia has been cold recently but I haven't validated. 

Which is why I wonder/leave the discussion open to some RONIness ( I'm having pizza dunnite. mmm)   lol

Yup....like @bluewaveputs it..."competing forces". But I will say the STJ is pretty iron clad el Nino.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I think they're going by months with Dec, Jan and Feb being snow months, nothing in Dec is 1/3 of the snow months gone.

yeah  yup, that's most likely 'how' that thinking is going - but it's flawed   yadda yadda yadda

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

the interior SE and mid atlantic have better chances of hooking up with big snows in January; than SNE,  I think. 

What kinda sucks about this too is that a) not our cold source regions b) this snow melts within day or two of falling, even in Jan. It doesn't reinforce cold. Transient.