December 2023

[DavisStraight]

7 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

it was here ...so bad that numerous landscapers have gotten out of the snowplowing business...neighbors are having a difficult time hiring someone to do plowing this winter..

Same around here, people complaining they can't find someone to plow, so far, they haven't needed anyone.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

That’s actually pretty impressive verification from 300+ hours. Nailed the N PAC decently and the western ridge. Missed on the Atlantic side though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/12/quiet-mild-christmas-will-transition-to.html

[HoarfrostHubb]

8 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Same around here, people complaining they can't find someone to plow, so far, they haven't needed anyone.

I will admit that if I hadn't gotten clobbered in that March storm, it would have been a BN season here

[HoarfrostHubb]

19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You got very lucky..the rest of us had the rat of our lives. 

Yup.  ineedsnow and I were doing cartwheels while most others were sucking on tailpipes while Sarah Mclaughlin was playing.  We wound up having a good season but bad timing

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I mean it’s not that rare for SNE to see many rainers consecutively in second half of december , but it takes a more exceptional turd to give ski resorts and Snowmobile areas 3 rainers in a row during that period .
 

Really doesn’t say anything much to me about the rest of winter just that skiing will likely suck for a while 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I mean it’s not that rare for SNE to see many rainers consecutively in second half of december , but it takes a more exceptional turd to give ski resorts and Snowmobile areas 3 rainers in a row during that period .
 

Really doesn’t say anything much to me about the rest of winter just that skiing will likely suck for a while 

December sledding is always iffy, even in northern Maine.  Some years it’s ago in late December, some years it isn’t.  Been that way for the last 30 yrs I’ve been going there.   Oh well, we wait a little longer. 

[Hazey]

Seems like we have way more chances for screamers than snowers. Hope that turns around....and fast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I will admit that if I hadn't gotten clobbered in that March storm, it would have been a BN season here

I will admit that if I hadn't gotten clobbered with that extra chromosome, it would have been an inny not an outty here

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Seems like we have way more chances for screamers than snowers. Hope that turns around....and fast.

I scream , you scream,  we all scream for soueastcream. 

[brooklynwx99]

7 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Can you post the good ensembles?  OP remains extremely consistent 

quote where i said that setup for late month looked favorable for snow. that setup has been warm for a while now

[brooklynwx99]

i don’t think people realize that when you LR forecast, you are going to be wrong more than you’re right. just the way it is 

a lot of the people that troll don’t even really make any calls, either. they just bump troll

regardless the change to a better pattern is still moving up in time. don’t really see any changes there

[brooklynwx99]

lmao getting weenied for nothing. absolute man children

[weatherwiz]

This has to be an extremely encouraging sign. You can see the MJO has fizzled out within the crappy phases but the support for not only the MJO signal to re-emerge, but become pretty strong in phase 1 is very good. Obviously there is skepticism with how models handle MJO wave progression, however, you can see that we've been very slowly crawling towards more favorable times. The demise of the MJO and slower eastward progression is probably why we've been seeing the models "push back" the pattern. 

Actually, if you look at some of the ensembles posted here the past few days, they have striking similarities for what we'd expect in MJO phase 1. I wouldn't worry too much about what OP runs are showing in the extended range. With an MJO of this magnitude there is going to be a ton of interference and feedback on the guidance and I think you can see this well on today's GFS run with some wild H5 evolutions. 

[qg_omega]

23 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

luckily I think the "winning again" looks like it'll occur around the end of the month. ENS are keying in on a nice pattern as the jet retracts

Here just yesterday and many many more as we go back in time

[brooklynwx99]

pattern still looks good towards the end of the month. don’t really see any cause for angst from any of this

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i don’t think people realize that when you LR forecast, you are going to be wrong more than you’re right. just the way it is 

a lot of the people that troll don’t even really make any calls, either. they just bump troll

regardless the change to a better pattern is still moving up in time. don’t really see any changes there

they barely have skill to forecast temperatures the following day 

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

pattern still looks good towards the end of the month. don’t really see any cause for angst from any of this

Toward the end of the month is mid January?  Nothing looks good for the next three weeks

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Here just yesterday and many many more as we go back in time

yeah… like around the 30-31st and into the new year. that is the end of the month. like the last couple days

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Toward the end of the month is mid January?  Nothing looks good for the next three weeks

that’s bullshit

[brooklynwx99]

how the fuck is January 1-4 mid-month? what is going on in here. do we need to redefine dates?

@qg_omegaone of those is literally for Dec 28-Jan 2. explain to me how that isn’t around the end of December

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This has to be an extremely encouraging sign. You can see the MJO has fizzled out within the crappy phases but the support for not only the MJO signal to re-emerge, but become pretty strong in phase 1 is very good. Obviously there is skepticism with how models handle MJO wave progression, however, you can see that we've been very slowly crawling towards more favorable times. The demise of the MJO and slower eastward progression is probably why we've been seeing the models "push back" the pattern. 

Actually, if you look at some of the ensembles posted here the past few days, they have striking similarities for what we'd expect in MJO phase 1. I wouldn't worry too much about what OP runs are showing in the extended range. With an MJO of this magnitude there is going to be a ton of interference and feedback on the guidance and I think you can see this well on today's GFS run with some wild H5 evolutions. 

meant to say what you would expect to see during the transition from phase 1 to 2 and that is exactly what is shown with the GFS/CMC look @brooklynwx99 just posted.

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

how the fuck is January 1-4 mid-month? what is going on in here. do we need to redefine dates?

@qg_omegaone of those is literally for Dec 28-Jan 2. explain to me how that isn’t around the end of December

That’s the point, ensembles have showed the better pattern 10 to 15 days away and are wrong.  Canada is a blow torch and I don’t see any changes until Canada cools down significantly.  The conus warmth this month and into YEAR END is historic.  We aren’t just going to “flip” colder without massive changes.  I see nothing for the next three weeks, maybe I’ll be wrong, lets hope.  The reasons I outlined two weeks ago have not changed.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah… like around the 30-31st and into the new year. that is the end of the month. like the last couple days

It's likely a subjective popsicle headache session buuuut... it depends on what one means by "looks good"

If "good" requires an actual consensus depiction of a stem wound bomb under a multi contoured hornet stinger mid level anomaly, with 850 mb temperatures of -7 and all that. No- 

If good means "workable"  ?  yes. 

It was not workable.  As a change, we are heading into a period of workable.  To me that's good because it's inherently better than dog shit.

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

That’s the point, ensembles have showed the better pattern 10 to 15 days away and are wrong.  Canada is a blow torch and I don’t see any changes until Canada cools down significantly.  The conus warmth this month and into YEAR END is historic.  We aren’t just going to “flip” colder without massive changes.  I see nothing for the next three weeks, maybe I’ll be wrong, lets hope.  The reasons I outlined two weeks ago have not changed.

idk man, does this not look like a massive change? the pattern is fundamentally different in the Pacific. you go from an AK trough regime into a AK ridge regime

[brooklynwx99]

also, a warm Canada doesn't mean that it can't be cold here. it's a silly argument. +10 up there can be -5 down here... the GEFS shows that well. this is often the case in El Nino winters. Feb 2010 is actually a glaring example. Canada was absolutely blowtorched and BWI got 50" that month

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's likely a subjective popsicle headache session buuuut... it depends on what one means by "looks good"

If "good" requires an actual consensus depiction of a stem wound bomb under a multi contoured hornet stinger mid level anomaly, with 850 mb temperatures of -7 and all that. No- 

If good means "workable"  ?  yes. 

It was not workable.  As a change, we are heading into a period of workable.  To me that's good because it's inherently better than dog shit.

yeah, I mean workable with some actual potential, not anything crazy

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I scream , you scream,  we all scream for mancream. 

Eh......dunno about "all"....

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, a warm Canada doesn't mean that it can't be cold here. it's a silly argument. +10 up there can be -5 down here... the GEFS shows that well. this is often the case in El Nino winters. Feb 2010 is actually a glaring example. Canada was absolutely blowtorched and BWI got 50" that month

Yea, we have been through this every day....it means it won't be zero degrees near the coast anytime soon, but you don't need arctic air to snow above the 38th parallel in January.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It would be one thing if we had this pattern in mid March, but January shouldn't be an issue....I would favor the interior and elevations, sure....