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December 2023


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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

:axe:

I should have clarified, we will all be smelling the 2-stroke from chainsaws.  VT actually had a few areas that were able to offer some limited riding this weekend.  This looks bad all the way to the County though.  57° and rain in Presque Isle and Caribou.  I was in Quebec City this weekend and there was less snow there than in my yard.

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18 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I should have clarified, we will all be smelling the 2-stroke from chainsaws.  VT actually had a few areas that were able to offer some limited riding this weekend.  This looks bad all the way to the County though.  57° and rain in Presque Isle and Caribou.  I was in Quebec City this weekend and there was less snow there than in my yard.

Yup…everybody got wiped out.  That’s ok…it’ll fill back up and be better than it was this weekend, and be ready to go soon I feel.   

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes sir. There’s some cold air lurking now far on ensembles . We may be done with the screams .. for a spell anyway 

Yeah I think there’s a chance for that one but not a great one. But it’s been trending better the last couple of cycles so if that keeps up then maybe we have something to track for real by this weekend. 
 

Ensembles have been sharpening the ridge near Hudson Bay. 

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think there’s a chance for that one but not a great one. But it’s been trending better the last couple of cycles so if that keeps up then maybe we have something to track for real by this weekend. 
 

Ensembles have been sharpening the ridge near Hudson Bay. 

I actually for the first time since early November when we had our only snow (dusting) like the look going forward. That one to me looks like it has a shot . Not a ton of cold air.. but enough 

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22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think there’s a chance for that one but not a great one. But it’s been trending better the last couple of cycles so if that keeps up then maybe we have something to track for real by this weekend. 
 

Ensembles have been sharpening the ridge near Hudson Bay. 

might be able to pop some confluence out ahead of the S/W like the 18z GFS OP does. would make sense given that HP is favored downstream of a ridge like that

afterwards, the GEFS seems to have pretty much caved to the EPS in the longer range. -EPO, neutral NAO, temps are cold enough, and there's also split flow. nice pattern there

1117728961_image(3).thumb.png.1e9173a9720ffdc25490c71facca3f1e.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4304800.thumb.png.0fff5aad6f26cc95ae970f489453c41f.png

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Seems like we have been talking about this pattern change potential for weeks, We need to get it to happen.

Yeah but to be fair, when we were tracking it on the weeklies, it was mostly near or after Xmas…and it actually seems like that is going to verify now since we’re already seeing the seeds of the pattern creeping inside D10. There were a few brief times where it looked like we could get a big -NAO to offset some of the bad PAC but it was mostly transient…we did sneak in a semi-favorable look in the first week of December but wave-spacing hurt us in SNE and only the south shore of MA got that 1-3” event. 

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's moving up in time and the jet is going to retract. it seems legit

Good lets see if it holds and doesn't get pushed back after today's disaster, We're starting all over again with no frost, No ice and no snow for some of the areas that had it.

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26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah but to be fair, when we were tracking it on the weeklies, it was mostly near or after Xmas…and it actually seems like that is going to verify now since we’re already seeing the seeds of the pattern creeping inside D10. There were a few brief times where it looked like we could get a big -NAO to offset some of the bad PAC but it was mostly transient…we did sneak in a semi-favorable look in the first week of December but wave-spacing hurt us in SNE and only the south shore of MA got that 1-3” event. 

Well, but there was some talk about some better action further north sooner than Christmas

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