December 2023

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

12 and 3K NAM both moved west again. Big winds on both 

Meh maybe a gust to 40?

[ineedsnow]

Might be worth taking a trip to one of the beaches early Monday morning though

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Meh maybe a gust to 40?

You are going to be very surprised if that’s what you’re thinking there 

[Patrick-02540]

Does the wind look to be as bad as last year's 12/22-23 storm, western NE? 

[WxWatcher007]

Insane asylum. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That 6z gfs is heinous. 3 seperate Rainers and a fourth one winding up for Jan 1st. Will we ever catch a break?

It may be required, truth is what ultimately sets us all free.  Folks may need to admit the climate's changed, simply put. 

I like the Buddha core tenet. May be over simplifying ... certainly do not mean to offend if I am butchering, but from what I gather: All evil's fruits of the entire world including the realities we suffer, pain, sorrow and anguish, they only happen because they were grown from expectation. Reality is a torture chamber of hurt expectation.    

This observation, where we are observing mid latitudes with increasing cold air challenges, might not just be a nuance of the local decadal sample size.  50 years ago, mm less problem with the arithmetic of that thinking.  All available data of that era that created the most objective reality was a stabler climate - which leaves the causality of year to year idiosyncrasies open other variability within the system.  No problem. 

That is not the case any longer, because it CANNOT be the case any longer. All the available data about the present era that creates the best objective reality is that the climate is NOT stable. 

It's probably more for psycho-babble, but I sense two camps of CC acceptance have evolved. 

One is easy. It is flat out it's happening ...everyone is fucked. 

The other is a "softer acceptance." This latter group will say on one hand that the climate has(is) changed(ing), but on the other ... attempt to qualify it - which is ultimately a divisive tact ( bit of a strong word but it is designed to fracture confidence, nonetheless).  "It'll take decades before that happens", "not in our life times", "it's not causing storms to do this - it doesn't work that way", and on and so on.  This is called rationalization in psych. And the clever strategy about these arguments is that they cannot really be refuted within the time span of the given scenario.  Whatever the scenario was, it is long gone into history before x-y-z can be proven.  To label the obvious, they create a comfort space that succeeds in evading truer acceptance- preserving the expectation bias.  

[CoastalWx]

Lots of beer in here this morning. Maybe even some shrooms.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It may be required, truth is what ultimately sets us all free.  Folks may need to admit the climate's changed, simply put. 

I like the Buddha core tenet. May be over simplifying ... certainly do not mean to offend if I am butchering, but from what I gather: All evil's fruits of the entire world including the realities we suffer, pain, sorrow and anguish, they only happen because they were grown from expectation. Realty is a torture chamber of hurt expectation.    

This sort observation, where we are observing mid latitudes with increasing cold air challenges, might not just be a nuance of the local decadal sample size.  50 years ago, mm less problem with the arithmetic of that thinking.  All available data of that era that created the most objective reality was a stabler climate - which leaves the causality of year to year idiosyncrasies open other variability within the system.  No problem. 

That is not the case any longer, because it CANNOT be the case any longer. All the available data about the present era that creates the best objective reality is that the climate is NOT stable. 

It's probably more for psycho-babble, but I sense two camps of CC acceptance have evolved. 

One is easy. It is flat out it's happening ...everyone is fucked. 

The other is a "softer acceptance." This latter group will say on one hand that the climate has(is) changed(ing), but on the other ... attempt to qualify it - which is ultimately a divisive tact ( bit of a strong word but it is designed to fracture confidence, nonetheless).  "It'll take decades before that happens", "not in our life times", "it's not causing storms to do this - it doesn't work that way", and on and so on.  This is called rationalization in psych. And the clever strategy about these arguments is that they cannot really be refuted within the time span of the given scenario.  Whatever the scenario was, it is long gone into history before x-y-z can be proven.  To label the obvious, they create a comfort space that succeeds in evading truer acceptance- preserving the expectation bias.  

Will Greta give us lube at least 

She seems pleasant 

[Patrick-02540]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Will Greta give us lube at least 

Bite the pillow- she's going in dry.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Philosophy aside ...

I suspect that this weirdly fast hemisphere is related to CC having an impact on the base-line geostrophic mean velocities.  There have recently been papers published. They indirectly if not directly corroborate what we've ( well...certainly I - ) have been at least anecdotally observing about the pattern behaviors over the past 10 years.

I think in more practical terms, it is having an impact of "pattern dependency" in deterministic (forecasting) efforts. Particularly in the mid and extended ranges; ironically, where there should be less "expectation" for stability, ha.  But ... it's been worse than that.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

Bite the pillow- she's going in dry.  

Cute Irish They just left the forum 

[TalcottWx]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lots of beer in here this morning. Maybe even some shrooms.

Bob Weir and the Wolf Bros in Port Chester, tonight. 

[weatherwiz]

The NAM does have enough llvl instability to make the wind potential a bit intriguing. It's probably a very small window though and I'm not sure if the potential is something that's on a widespread level or very localized and tied into any embedded areas of convection - this is probably most likely. 

[rimetree]

Winter is happening just in other parts of the world, like Norway...

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/norge/northern-norway/nordkapp/honningsvag.html

We'll get our chances. Beautiful morning...51/36.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, greenmtnwx said:

Come on man, they have every right to be. Don’t sugarcoat it, this is bad. The holiday mountain season is ruined and we just threw a month of winter away. Call it like it is. 

I have actually done a pretty good job "calling it like it is" up to this point....this shitty start was expected. The emotional dribble is excessive. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have actually done a pretty good job "calling it like it is" up to this point....this shitty start was expected. The emotional dribble is excessive. 

If a lot of us are shut out into NY, I didn’t expect that. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have actually done a pretty good job "calling it like it is" up to this point....this shitty start was expected. The emotional dribble is excessive. 

Agreed, I don't think anyone was calling for an epic December. There was discussion that we could have a few periods of potential. I mean if people are equating a discussion to a forecast that's on them.

[CoastalWx]

Just realized 3 years ago was the e big Dendy storm.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

If a lot of us are shut out into NY, I didn’t expect that. 

No one did. Not one person here or elsewhere did . 

[Spanks45]

Rgem would be something of interest WOR, what's 6-10 inches of rain before Christmas like? Sheesh, glad that model is usually wrong....

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Agreed.  But but El Niño is not coupled, it’s not strong, it’s not Super.  strong El Niño winters are terrible, end forecast

There are several brutal el Nino months of December that were followed by good to great seasons. 

[jbenedet]

We 50’s AWT

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If a lot of us are shut out into NY, I didn’t expect that. 

Nobody did , I mean maybe in NYC so now it’s basically like perception management to a degree . I think Ray is basically saying ok so the good period starts a week or so later than I thought big deal . But even in a crap December ..there is snow of a few inches for Merrimack valley . I did see an inch way back in the storm ORH got a couple (whenever that was - I wasn’t home for it )

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If a lot of us are shut out into NY, I didn’t expect that. 

You expected a shitty month of December, thus a shut out was a viable outcome. We also aren't there yet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nobody did , I mean maybe in NYC so now it’s basically like perception management to a degree . I think Ray is basically saying ok so the good period starts a week or so later than I thought big deal . But even in a crap December ..there is snow of a few inches for Merrimack valley . I did see an inch way back in the storm ORH got a couple 

 

Right....I thought we'd see SOME snow in December and if we don't its unfortunate, but it's of little relevance moving forward.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

We 50’s AWT

Yea, beautiful day...Good call. Gonna rake

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nobody did , I mean maybe in NYC so now it’s basically like perception management to a degree . I think Ray is basically saying ok so the good period starts a week or so later than I thought big deal . But even in a crap December ..there is snow of a few inches for Merrimack valley . I did see an inch way back in the storm ORH got a couple 

 

Yeah I have faith in January. But this December has been brutal. I expected mild and not much snow. If we get something after Christmas I think many would be happy. I figured this month would have WSW criteria somewhere. But if we get porked region wide then that is something I did not anticipate.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Rgem would be something of interest WOR, what's 6-10 inches of rain before Christmas like? Sheesh, glad that model is usually wrong....

Hide the kids presents if that happens. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You expected a shitty month of December, thus a shut out was a viable outcome. We also aren't there yet.

Revisions being done at Clarke’s?

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right....I thought we'd see SOME snow in December and if we don't its unfortunate, but it's of little relevance moving forward.

Do you consider it a great or memorable winter if it only snows in Jan/ Feb.. and we lose December?