December 2023

[codfishsnowman]

20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think there were two events that week.

There was a messy one right after...a 

 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I won’t lie though. Having December suck is painful. Maybe I’m getting old, but December is a miserable month when there is nothing to track. I don’t need a KU, but a couple of light events  are a lot better than this. Hopefully something happens after Christmas.

I kinda miss the occasional clippers, the increasing high clouds through dimming sunshine is winter's beauty at some of it's finest. The modest amount of powdery snow that follows makes it even better.

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, codfishsnowman said:

There was a messy one right after...a 

 

I kinda miss the occasional clippers, the increasing high clouds through dimming sunshine is winter's beauty at some of it's finest. The modest amount of powdery snow that follows makes it even better.

Better chance of seeing a T-Rex roaming around your back yard than having an "old school" clipper system.... 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re paying for that string of awesome Decembers…though honestly, Dec 2019 and 2020 were pretty damned snowy and active but they both got tainted by a nasty cutter or two…including a top 3 worst one in2020. 

I’ll say it till I’m blue in the face. Bad Decembers ruin winter. You just can’t have a great winter when you’re heading into January at 0.0. Even if it snowy for 4-6 weeks.. you know spring and Morch are right around the corner. No one will ever convince me otherwise  . There’s nothing worse than people saying it’s not supposed to snow in December. Yes it GD is supposed to 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re paying for that string of awesome Decembers…though honestly, Dec 2019 and 2020 were pretty damned snowy and active but they both got tainted by a nasty cutter or two…including a top 3 worst one in2020. 

Even an advisory or flip to snow after rain would feel like a win. After Christmas. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll say it till I’m blue in the face. Bad Decembers ruin winter. You just can’t have a great window when you’re heading into January at 0.0. Even if it snowy for 4-6 weeks.. you know spring and Morch are right around the corner. No one will ever convince me otherwise 

A nice snowy January would make you forget it.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A nice snowy January would make you forget it.

It would help yes. But still not going to erase a lost month 

[dryslot]

15 hours ago, FXWX said:

That's the one 

Skimmed thru it just briefly and there's a lot of detailed info on storms of yore in there.

[codfishsnowman]

5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Better chance of seeing a T-Rex roaming around your back yard than having an "old school" clipper system.... 

Maybe later this winter

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1736001741680705845?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll say it till I’m blue in the face. Bad Decembers ruin winter. You just can’t have a great winter when you’re heading into January at 0.0. Even if it snowy for 4-6 weeks.. you know spring and Morch are right around the corner. No one will ever convince me otherwise  . There’s nothing worse than people saying it’s not supposed to snow in December. Yes it GD is supposed to 

It typically snows in December.  I think even a little snow for most people would make them feel a. It better about it 

And nothing wrong with March snows.   Sure. December is probably better wit regards to spirit and retention.  But it all melts eventually 

[FXWX]

Just now, dryslot said:

Skimmed thru it just briefly and there's a lot of detailed info on storms of yore in there.

That's the best part...

[jbenedet]

30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

to be fair, NA snow cover was on the high side for a good portion of last winter, especially early, and it meant next to nothing

It’s an important initial condition. But it’s also one among many. That’s all.

It’s all a game of odds. This one piece is stacked against colder and snowier.

Hedge. Accordingly.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It typically snows in December.  I think even a little snow for most people would make them feel a. It better about it 

And nothing wrong with March snows.   Sure. December is probably better wit regards to spirit and retention.  But it all melts eventually 

E MA is on the board with that 2-4” OES deal . But SW of ORH has been goosed 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It would help yes. But still not going to erase a lost month 

I think maybe you are realizing your climo is more likely to disappoint you based on how much snow you want  to see or how many pack days you want maybe that you got used to over a several year period that was not a good representation of average . I could be wrong . I agree with the sentiment that “snowy “ December’s set the tone , doesn’t even have to snow much , some days of 2” of pack can do wonders . A shutout of pack and an inch or two in the month is a good kick to the balls if you live outside coastal areas and cape .

 

I would be curious if Will had any info regarding snow pack days for ORH in December and how often say no advisory events occurred ( not that they won’t in last few days of month )

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

It’s an important initial condition. But it’s also one among many. That’s all.

It’s all a game of odds. This one piece is stacked against colder and snowier.

Hedge. Accordingly.

i think it’s one of those constructive/destructive interference variables. low snow cover constructively interferes with warm weather and vice versa

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think maybe you are realizing your climo is more likely to disappoint you based on how much snow you want  to see or how many pack days you want maybe that you got used to over a several year period that was not a good representation of average . I could be wrong . I agree with the sentiment that “snowy “ December’s set the tone , doesn’t even have to snow much , some days of 2” of pack can do wonders . A shutout of pack and an inch or two in the month is a good kick to the balls if you live outside coastal areas and cape .

 

I would be curious if Will had any info regarding snow pack days for ORH in December and how often say no advisory events occurred ( not that they won’t in last few days of month )

I’m not saying it’s a very snowy month. I am saying though that it is supposed to snow in December 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1736001741680705845?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

JB lol

[dryslot]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I won’t lie though. Having December suck is painful. Maybe I’m getting old, but December is a miserable month when there is nothing to track. I don’t need a KU, but a couple of light events  are a lot better than this. Hopefully something happens after Christmas.

It is painful, Even just an avg one or just below are becoming less and less likely for snowfall.

[jbenedet]

42 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

C'mon man you are RAINING on their parade ...

Kind of an irony where the simplest forecast, again, would have been the best.

All the rest is BS.

We’re tracking somewhere between 2006-2007 and 2015-2016 snowfall wise in the CONUS. 

The former was a moderate El Niño, the latter a super El Niño. We’re tracking between those El Niño conditions today; strong El Niño. Shocker! Nope not at all if you can tune out all the noise.

Take those years, average the outcome, run it from this point. That’s your best guess for high end snow/cold outcome from here. Hedge in favor of less than that baseline with +1C surface temps vs 06/07; 15/16 average.

[qg_omega]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Kind of an irony where the simplest forecast, again, would have been the best.

All the rest is BS.

We’re tracking somewhere between 2006-2007 and 2015-2016 snowfall wise in the CONUS. 

The former was a moderate El Niño, the latter a super El Niño. We’re tracking between those El Niño conditions today; strong El Niño. Shocker! Nope not at all if you can tune out all the noise.

Take those years, average the outcome, run it from this point. That’s your best guess for high end snow/cold outcome from here. Hedge less than that baseline with +1C surface temps vs 06/07; 15/16 average.

Agreed.  But but El Niño is not coupled, it’s not strong, it’s not Super.  strong El Niño winters are terrible, end forecast

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m not saying it’s a very snowy month. I am saying though that it is supposed to snow in December 

But sometimes it doesn’t though…And that’s what you are missing here.  Yes, we’d all love some snow in December, but many times that doesn’t happen. This looks to be another year where that is the case.  I love ya…but sometimes your ideas are skewed my friend..and then you try to push those ideas as if they are fact and what to expect on to our climo, and that is usually not the case.

And if January is good…you’ll forget all about the bad December. And if February is good..it’s a done deal that winter in 23-24 was a good winter…and indeed not ruined like you say, because of a bad December.  See how we just showed you the light.. 

[DavisStraight]

It has been quite a while since we tracked a big storm for most of the area, we're way overdue. If we can get snow the first week in Jan and it stays and we can start building a pack, that would be sweet.

[H2Otown_WX]

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully something happens after Christmas.

It will...but not til Valentine's Day

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Kind of an irony where the simplest forecast, again, would have been the best.

All the rest is BS.

We’re tracking somewhere between 2006-2007 and 2015-2016 snowfall wise in the CONUS. 

The former was a moderate El Niño, the latter a super El Niño. We’re tracking between those El Niño conditions today; strong El Niño. Shocker! Nope not at all if you can tune out all the noise.

Take those years, average the outcome, run it from this point. That’s your best guess for high end snow/cold outcome from here. Hedge in favor of less than that baseline with +1C surface temps vs 06/07; 15/16 average.

I agree, the simplest forecast  would have been the way to go considering the likelihood of this being a high end moderate to strong El Nino. Some people downplayed the possibility of El Nino "train wrecking" the winter because it wasn't what they wanted to "hear"..

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But sometimes it doesn’t though…And that’s what you are missing here.  Yes, we’d all love some snow in December, but many times that doesn’t happen. This looks to be another year where that is the case.  I love ya…but sometimes your ideas are skewed my friend..and then you try to push those ideas as if they are fact and what to expect on to our climo, and that is usually not the case.

And if January is good…you’ll forget all about the bad December. And if February is good..it’s a done deal that winter in 23-24 was a good winter…and indeed not ruined like you say, because of a bad December.  See how we just showed you the light.. 

I don’t think there’s ever been a month  since living in Tolland where we have had 0.0. Moved here when got married in 2000. not over yet but it does not look promising . I’m sure Will wIll pull up some random year .. but you get the picture. 

[metagraphica]

51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I won’t lie though. Having December suck is painful. Maybe I’m getting old, but December is a miserable month when there is nothing to track. I don’t need a KU, but a couple of light events  are a lot better than this. Hopefully something happens after Christmas.

 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t think there’s ever been a month  since living in Tolland where we have had 0.0. Moved here when got married in 2000. not over yet but it does not look promising . I’m sure Will wIll pull up some random year .. but you get the picture. 

I understand your disappointment..we all do. But if that’s the case for Tolland..then you just got lucky. Cuz sometimes it just doesn’t snow in December in SNE. I’ve seen it many times. It sucks. But it’s true.  Hoping for a little something after/during the Xmas week for all he us. Hang tough…we’ll get through it. 

[kdxken]

40 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Skimmed thru it just briefly and there's a lot of detailed info on storms of yore in there.

That's all they got. Unless you like strong breezes and rain.

[jbenedet]

12 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

strong El Niño winters are terrible, end forecast

I can see that vis-a-vis 2015-2016. Super El Niños send the +p anomalies (nov/dec) into Southern Canada, and it’s still cold enough to snow—this in turn produces an early rock solid pack in our cold source regions. I believe that helped us out January-March 2016 as pattern shifted more favorable, but generally, not great.

Instead, this season, with Pacific being tame, Canada has been dry and most of the precip south….No pack build up. I’m definitely less optimistic for cold/snow than 2015-2016 from this point on.

[Damage In Tolland]

12 and 3K NAM both moved west again. Big winds on both