weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 8:07 PM, Damage In Tolland said: This from the dude who gets so excitable over a thunderstorm in summer which never produce .. and staring at a bigtime wind event here and not a post or a tweet or anything Expand I get excited for thunder, lightning, shelf clouds, and towering cumulus. Anything else is a bonus 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 @Typhoon Tip 12/29/76 was an absolute whopper for the 128 belt down into N RI. It wasn't a super phased monster blizzard, but it produced a lot of 12-20" amounts in that corridor. That is the storm Ray loves because ORH was too far west and only got 4". 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 7:42 PM, CoastalWx said: EPS continues to look better. Post Christmas looking better for at least part of the region. Expand Starting to look a lot like Jan '87 over North America.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 8:39 PM, ORH_wxman said: Starting to look a lot like Jan '87 over North America.... Expand That's a good thing? I think I had that as a wild card analog and as an analog which would not be good to us. That winter didn't have any blocking IIRC correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 8:42 PM, weatherwiz said: That's a good thing? I think I had that as a wild card analog and as an analog which would not be good to us. That winter didn't have any blocking IIRC correctly Expand No, Jan 87 was good. Very active. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 6:05 PM, CoastalWx said: That was a pants tent storm. I think the call was 3-6". Got over a foot of fluff. Expand I had two inches in Bristol CT and I was thrilled. I remember watching the weather on TV all day. I think some parts of eastern CT had over 8 inches and then emass got lit up. Pretty sure that was a clipper redevelopment. Was super fluffy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 8:46 PM, ORH_wxman said: No, Jan 87 was good. Very active. Expand Gotcha…just looked at Jan 87 and I see what you mean. EPS there indeed looks a bit like it. Looks like Jan did have some decent blocking but I initially overlooked because it wasn’t reflected in the seasonal mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 8:36 PM, ORH_wxman said: @Typhoon Tip 12/29/76 was an absolute whopper for the 128 belt down into N RI. It wasn't a super phased monster blizzard, but it produced a lot of 12-20" amounts in that corridor. That is the storm Ray loves because ORH was too far west and only got 4". Expand What was the frequency in the 25-31 period. My question was more around "repeater" ... You know? Like there seems like there's a storm on the charts ever 3 years Feb 2-10 for example. Another one is Mar 9 -15 ... Dec 1-7 ... I'm sure there's been a storm on every date if we go back far enough. It's just for muse but it didn't seem it. I wasn't terribly cognizant of the world at in 1976 yet. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 6:07 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think there were two events that week. Expand There was a messy one right after...a few days later...parts of eastern CT had up to 8 inches before the scalping 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 8:19 PM, dryslot said: Just need to show a little more patience for snow going forward after this run of the mill Sou' easter comes thru here Monday Expand Not unusual, that the models that we were looking at two or three weeks ago were getting a little bit ahead of themselves, but had the right idea in the long run perhaps. But we’ll know soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 8:04 PM, dryslot said: My amazon order arrived......... Expand Such a great read! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Wildness As for wind gusts potential and power outage potential, it will come down to low level lapse rates and how well the boundary will mix. Given this system is rapidly intensifying, it will be accompanied by a strong pressure rise/fall couplet that will enhance the wind threat. Wind and rainfall/flood threats will ultimately hinge on the exact track of the low level circulation and accompanying low level jet, which currently ranges from eastern PA/NJ into the Lower Hudson River Valley, to eastward into the CT River Valley. Too early to pin down these details, but the potential is there for a high impact event. Over the weekend we will likely be able to add these details to the forecast. Greatest impacts from this upcoming storm will be felt here in SNE from Sunday night into Monday. Some headlines will likely be issued later tonight or Sat. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 May you be at the hypocenter and me on the farthermost outer edge of it. Of course, your neighbors (and your near and dear) may not feel as blessed as you with hurricane force gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 9:08 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Wildness As for wind gusts potential and power outage potential, it will come down to low level lapse rates and how well the boundary will mix. Given this system is rapidly intensifying, it will be accompanied by a strong pressure rise/fall couplet that will enhance the wind threat. Wind and rainfall/flood threats will ultimately hinge on the exact track of the low level circulation and accompanying low level jet, which currently ranges from eastern PA/NJ into the Lower Hudson River Valley, to eastward into the CT River Valley. Too early to pin down these details, but the potential is there for a high impact event. Over the weekend we will likely be able to add these details to the forecast. Greatest impacts from this upcoming storm will be felt here in SNE from Sunday night into Monday. Some headlines will likely be issued later tonight or Sat. Expand I'll enjoy the 5-10mph breeze here 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 8:04 PM, dryslot said: My amazon order arrived......... Expand I have all of his books. Great studies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 9:08 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Wildness As for wind gusts potential and power outage potential, it will come down to low level lapse rates and how well the boundary will mix. Given this system is rapidly intensifying, it will be accompanied by a strong pressure rise/fall couplet that will enhance the wind threat. Wind and rainfall/flood threats will ultimately hinge on the exact track of the low level circulation and accompanying low level jet, which currently ranges from eastern PA/NJ into the Lower Hudson River Valley, to eastward into the CT River Valley. Too early to pin down these details, but the potential is there for a high impact event. Over the weekend we will likely be able to add these details to the forecast. Greatest impacts from this upcoming storm will be felt here in SNE from Sunday night into Monday. Some headlines will likely be issued later tonight or Sat. Expand Euro is meh cept of course outer Cape. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 9:27 PM, Ginx snewx said: Euro is meh cept of course outer Cape. Expand Pretty much comes down to track. How far west will it go to bring in more instability. All the western leaning guidance is windier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 9:29 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Pretty much comes down to track. How far west will it go to bring in more instability. All the western leaning guidance is windier. Expand Yes of course. Messenger shifts and all. Unless this pulls an Isaias 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 9:08 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Wildness As for wind gusts potential and power outage potential, it will come down to low level lapse rates and how well the boundary will mix. Given this system is rapidly intensifying, it will be accompanied by a strong pressure rise/fall couplet that will enhance the wind threat. Wind and rainfall/flood threats will ultimately hinge on the exact track of the low level circulation and accompanying low level jet, which currently ranges from eastern PA/NJ into the Lower Hudson River Valley, to eastward into the CT River Valley. Too early to pin down these details, but the potential is there for a high impact event. Over the weekend we will likely be able to add these details to the forecast. Greatest impacts from this upcoming storm will be felt here in SNE from Sunday night into Monday. Some headlines will likely be issued later tonight or Sat. Expand They seem worried. Nws "Another pleasant day is in store for Saturday with above normal temperatures and a mix of clouds and sun! Conditions deteriorate late Sunday into Monday as an efficient rainmaker brings drenching precipitation and gusty winds to southern New England." 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 9:27 PM, Ginx snewx said: Euro is meh cept of course outer Cape. Expand Why use Euro? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 9:30 PM, Ginx snewx said: Yes of course. Messenger shifts and all. Unless this pulls an Isaias Expand Warm cores don’t like to shift East . Remember that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 8:19 PM, weatherwiz said: Brush fire in New Haven closing down a portion of 91. This wouldn't have happened if we had snow on the ground. Expand Or a foot of water... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Clown maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 This is a deal where just inland probably has best gusts. I’ll take over in SE MA away from water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 What’s intriguing to me is that around 15-18z as LLJ cranks, lapse rates steepen in lower levels. So although max LLJ lifts out, the low is so wrapped up that slight CAA mixes to and above 925 perhaps briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 I am working in Scituate, MA Monday AM. hope it's very very wild! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 9:47 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Warm cores don’t like to shift East . Remember that Expand Gfs just took a good jump east. Still west of euro though. Nam now furthest west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 9:50 PM, CoastalWx said: What’s intriguing to me is that around 15-18z as LLJ cranks, lapse rates steepen in lower levels. So although max LLJ lifts out, the low is so wrapped up that slight CAA mixes to and above 925 perhaps briefly. Expand Love to see Scoots like this. Love love love to see it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 10:00 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Gfs just took a good jump east. Still west of euro though. Nam now furthest west Expand Final track is probably right up the Henry Hudson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 10:00 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Gfs just took a good jump east. Still west of euro though. Nam now furthest west Expand 1-2” in our hood with gusts tickling 45mph if everything breaks right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now