December 2023

[Typhoon Tip]

This looks El Nino-esque too me.  Nice rollin' S/stream, loaded with wave mechanics, and a vestigial N/stream across E/SE Canada.  

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This looks El Nino-esque too me.  Nice rollin' S/stream, loaded with wave mechanics, and a vestigial N/stream across E/SE Canada.  

We are a full blown Nino look now.

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

We are a full blown Nino look now.

Blocky monsters in our future?

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, tamarack said:

It's been done, at least in a 1962 short story, "The Weather Man" by Theodore L. Thomas.   (I have the story in a book, "Time Probe: The Sciences in Science Fiction", assembled by Arthur C. Clarke.)   It describes technicians riding into the sun's atmosphere on "sessile boats" that are protected by "a thin film of gaseous carbon", with weather modification made by carefully aimed water drops.  A fun read.

I'm hoping that, like the last one did in the 48-hour run-up, the Monday storm will start edging east so that only BHB and point east will get the strong winds.  I'd also like, if it has to rain, that temps would stay in the 30s here, also like last Monday.

Well, John could do volume II..."The Unintelligible Edition"....

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This looks El Nino-esque too me.  Nice rollin' S/stream, loaded with wave mechanics, and a vestigial N/stream across E/SE Canada.  

582dm N of Miami

[weatherwiz]

The GFS has some severe weather for me on the 27th in Florida  

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Blocky monsters in our future?

Ptype TBD.

[CoastalWx]

GFS gets it done post Christmas especially interior.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS gets it done post Christmas especially interior.

AKA R/S line over W. Methuen.

[NorEastermass128]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS gets it done post Christmas especially interior.

Love it. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

582dm N of Miami

Not by much... but more crucial, the wind balanced g-wind velocities are 35 kts or <  

That latter aspect speaks to the 'compressibility' of the flow - which may be a sloppy way to describe whether the gradient speeds up as the S/W approaches, to a state that is too fast and shearing/absorption begins to rob from the total wave mechanics.  

It was always the combination of those two metrics:   582 and balanced geostrophic wind at or < 32 kts.  But we can play with that.   I mean, if the heights are 586 ( say ) but the gap between the isopleths is large and velocities are light, than as the S/W/intermediate wave space trough approaches the SE in general ... less in the way of absorption ensues.  Contrasting, if the heights are 576 but the wind is already up around 50 kts, than that's negative too.

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not by much... but more crucial, the wind balanced g-wind velocities are 35 kts or <  

That latter aspect speaks to the 'compressibility' of the flow - which may be a slopping way to describe whether the gradient speeds up as the S/W approaches, to a state that is too fast and shearing/absorption begins to rob from the total wave mechanics.  

It was always the combination of those two metrics:   582 and balanced geostrophic wind at or < 32 kts.  But we can play with that.   I mean, if the heights are 586 ( say ) and the gap between the isopleths is large and velocities are light, than as the S/W/intermediate wave space trough approaches the SE in general ... less in the way of absorption ensues.  Contrasting, if the heights are 576 but the wind is already up around 50 kts, than that's negative too.

end of the month looking more and more interesting with a potent SS shortwave sneaking under anticyclonic flow in central Canada

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

end of the month looking more and more interesting with a potent SS shortwave sneaking under anticyclonic flow in central Canada

I'm probably just a jaded lover of winter modeling affairs here but for some reason, just a 990 mb low as a result, underneath all that, is somehow more encouraging at this point ...

[George001]

My mid Dec update is that I am not excited about the pattern for the rest of the month for 2 reasons. One, the parade of storms entering the pacific northwest favors a storm track is NW of the region. The second reason is it is simply too warm. No matter how much blue there is at 500mb, the surface is still AN on the long range guidance. Last year’s abomination of a “winter” taught me that no matter how “good” the pattern looks at 500mb, if there isn’t any cold air it won’t lead to snow. It’s really that simple, the #1 ingredient for east coast blizzards is true arctic air. If we don’t have that, we are threading the needle or hoping for a very low probability outcome. It’s possible we sneak in a couple of inches with the follow up deal after the massive inland runner, but the pattern doesn’t really support anything more than a minor event there, and even that is going to be tough to get.

The whole relying on storms to create their own cold air thing just isn’t going to cut it, especially in December when the SSTs are extremely mild. That’s why I haven’t been posting much here this month, I’m not jumping on board until I see sustained (1+ week) -5 or lower anomalies on the models. By mid Jan, that reduces to -3 to -2. In late Jan- mid Feb, normal temps with north based atlantic blocking is good enough. If I see that on the models, I will become a lot more optimistic. For now though, it is a typical strong/super nino December pattern. 

Overall, I would say based on how things have gone the past few weeks and what the extended guidance shows, im expecting we get shut out for the rest of the month. Even the last week of Dec, the pattern does not look good. However, there are some interesting things happening in the stratosphere. That is the main reason I’m not sounding the alarms for a total rat. The forecasted weakening of the polar vortex looks to be for real. Based on previous polar vortex events, I’m expecting an unfavorable pattern for a couple weeks after the disruption. This would take us to mid January. I said that if we get to early Jan with nothing promising on the horizon it’s time to panic, and I stand by that since by then we will know more about how this polar vortex event will play out. Hopefully the polar vortex cooperates and doesn’t go to the other side of the globe. 
 

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

My mid Dec update is that I am not excited about the pattern for the rest of the month for 2 reasons. One, the parade of storms entering the pacific northwest favors a storm track is NW of the region. The second reason is it is simply too warm. No matter how much blue there is at 500mb, the surface is still AN on the long range guidance. Last year’s abomination of a “winter” taught me that no matter how “good” the pattern looks at 500mb, if there isn’t any cold air it won’t lead to snow. It’s really that simple, the #1 ingredient for east coast blizzards is true arctic air. If we don’t have that, we are threading the needle or hoping for a very low probability outcome. It’s possible we sneak in a couple of inches with the follow up deal after the massive inland runner, but the pattern doesn’t really support anything more than a minor event there, and even that is going to be tough to get.

The whole relying on storms to create their own cold air thing just isn’t going to cut it, especially in December when the SSTs are extremely mild. That’s why I haven’t been posting much here this month, I’m not jumping on board until I see sustained (1+ week) -5 or lower anomalies on the models. By mid Jan, that reduces to -3 to -2. In late Jan- mid Feb, normal temps with north based atlantic blocking is good enough. If I see that on the models, I will become a lot more optimistic. For now though, it is a typical strong/super nino December pattern. 

Overall, I would say based on how things have gone the past few weeks and what the extended guidance shows, im expecting we get shut out for the rest of the month. Even the last week of Dec, the pattern does not look good. However, there are some interesting things happening in the stratosphere. That is the main reason I’m not sounding the alarms for a total rat. The forecasted weakening of the polar vortex looks to be for real. Based on previous polar vortex events, I’m expecting an unfavorable pattern for a couple weeks after the disruption. This would take us to mid January. I said that if we get to early Jan with nothing promising on the horizon it’s time to panic, and I stand by that since by then we will know more about how this polar vortex event will play out. Hopefully the polar vortex cooperates and doesn’t go to the other side of the globe. 
 

 

 

This gtd’s a KU. Thanks.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This gtd’s a KU. Thanks.

He’s off in the completely opposite direction from before…a lil much, and certainly over compensating in a big way. 

[dryslot]

Get us back on the board with a HECS after christmas.

[Lava Rock]

Gorgeous out. 46F

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Get us back on the board with a HECS after christmas.

That’d be a nice way to get back into the game, after almost two years of shit…

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Pretty nice day today. Sun feels warm.  If we are not going to have snow on the ground I’ll take 50° in December.

[40/70 Benchmark]

40 minutes ago, George001 said:

My mid Dec update is that I am not excited about the pattern for the rest of the month for 2 reasons. One, the parade of storms entering the pacific northwest favors a storm track is NW of the region. The second reason is it is simply too warm. No matter how much blue there is at 500mb, the surface is still AN on the long range guidance. Last year’s abomination of a “winter” taught me that no matter how “good” the pattern looks at 500mb, if there isn’t any cold air it won’t lead to snow. It’s really that simple, the #1 ingredient for east coast blizzards is true arctic air. If we don’t have that, we are threading the needle or hoping for a very low probability outcome. It’s possible we sneak in a couple of inches with the follow up deal after the massive inland runner, but the pattern doesn’t really support anything more than a minor event there, and even that is going to be tough to get.

The whole relying on storms to create their own cold air thing just isn’t going to cut it, especially in December when the SSTs are extremely mild. That’s why I haven’t been posting much here this month, I’m not jumping on board until I see sustained (1+ week) -5 or lower anomalies on the models. By mid Jan, that reduces to -3 to -2. In late Jan- mid Feb, normal temps with north based atlantic blocking is good enough. If I see that on the models, I will become a lot more optimistic. For now though, it is a typical strong/super nino December pattern. 

Overall, I would say based on how things have gone the past few weeks and what the extended guidance shows, im expecting we get shut out for the rest of the month. Even the last week of Dec, the pattern does not look good. However, there are some interesting things happening in the stratosphere. That is the main reason I’m not sounding the alarms for a total rat. The forecasted weakening of the polar vortex looks to be for real. Based on previous polar vortex events, I’m expecting an unfavorable pattern for a couple weeks after the disruption. This would take us to mid January. I said that if we get to early Jan with nothing promising on the horizon it’s time to panic, and I stand by that since by then we will know more about how this polar vortex event will play out. Hopefully the polar vortex cooperates and doesn’t go to the other side of the globe. 
 

 

 

Not a totally unreasonable take and I wouldn't be shocked if we got shutout through December, but be careful with that last week of the month, as the ridging edging north combines with improving climo. You don't need Feb 2015 cold to snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

He’s off in the completely opposite direction from before…a lil much, and certainly over compensating in a big way. 

He's learning.....knows a shit load more than I did at his age....assuming early-mid 20s?

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He's learning.....knows a shit load more than I did at his age....assuming early-mid 20s?

I liked the old version - "Navgem George"

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He's learning.....knows a shit load more than I did at his age....assuming early-mid 20s?

Maybe…but seems a little too much in the opposite direction from last year..almost forced. But good for him. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I liked the old version - "Navgem George"

We have enough meh’s and debbies here. The old George is needed, more fun, but he struck out the past couple winters calling for 48-60” apocalyptic blizzards so he’s swung the polar opposite to compensate. Unfortunately winter sits on the other end of his seesaw. 

[jbenedet]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not a totally unreasonable take and I wouldn't be shocked if we got shutout through December, but be careful that last week of the month, as the ridging edging north combines with improving climo. You don't need Feb 2015 cold to snow.

We've had 8 years of AGW, though. 

I'm half-kidding on this topic.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We have enough meh’s and debbies here. The old George is needed, more fun, but he struck out the past couple winters calling for 48-60” apocalyptic blizzards so he’s swung the polar opposite to compensate. Unfortunately winter sits on the other end of his seesaw. 

I loathe the seesaw. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Maybe…but seems a little too much in the opposite direction from last year..almost forced. But good for him. 

Of course its an overcompensation, but you need insight in order to overcompensate so its progress.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

We've had 8 years of AGW, though. 

I'm half-kidding on this topic.

Right...not denying AGW, but I stand by the fact you don't need to rival Feb 1934 to snow. 2015 actually beat that month, despite 61 years of AGW.

[CoastalWx]

Southern Stream lift off after Christmas so I doubt it's Stein as some are worried about.