December 2023

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Whites snow pack should be wiped , back to back disaster systems prior to Xmas break for NH mtns 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 12/15/2023 at 12:38 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Whites snow pack should be wiped 

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[Ginx snewx]

  On 12/15/2023 at 10:45 AM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah gfs and euro are rather impressive in the eastern half of SNE.

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Euro was meh, here at least,as usual Congrats Cape

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 12/15/2023 at 12:39 PM, Ginx snewx said:

 

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Tough to argue these days 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 12/15/2023 at 12:38 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Whites snow pack should be wiped , back to back disaster systems prior to Xmas break for NH mtns 

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Absolute disaster. No snow anywhere except NW Maine for Christmas. Sad 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

To the surprise of no one, that follow up wave also looks like dog shit on all guidance now.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 12/15/2023 at 12:41 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Absolute disaster. No snow anywhere except NW Maine for Christmas. Sad 

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I bet that follow up wave in the weakness left behind snows 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/15/2023 at 12:40 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Euro was meh, here at least,as usual Congrats Cape

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EPS far from  meh

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/15/2023 at 10:45 AM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah gfs and euro are rather impressive in the eastern half of SNE.

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I'm okay with this at this point.   Not that you asked, but my previous contention was if or when N/stream continued to get stronger, it would trade spaces - that ends up more dominant over the lead Miller A.  But that's gone the other way overnight. A consensus for less N/stream potency  ( I know that's exactly what everyone wanted!), and the contention goes away. 

-which I still suspect reality is some 10 or even 20% less with the Miller A, btw.  Similar to the last waste of time.  In fact, you can see some shallowing of the PP in the guidance as the mid range prepares its relay into the shorter terms. Wouldn't surprise me if it even degenerated into an open wave/miasma of WAA rains... sure heavy, but moving right along.

Next winter potential is Dec 28-31st from what I'm looking at.

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/15/2023 at 12:40 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Euro was meh, here at least,as usual Congrats Cape

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Euro was impressive at 925. Can’t get bufkit like you can for other models though. Gfs bufkit from IJD to SE Ma was eye opening. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 12/15/2023 at 1:02 PM, CoastalWx said:

Euro was impressive at 925. Can’t get bufkit like you can for other models though. Gfs bufkit from IJD to SE Ma was eye opening. 

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6Z EURO 

[Typhoon Tip]

As an after thought on that ... we seem to have moved into an era of model tech where this correcting less amplified is all but dependable.   How much so from situation to situation is perhaps where the majority of the variability really lies - not if it will.   I began to notice this about 5 years ago, around the time all the fab three went through significant version overhauls.

I don't know if that is by design, or if it is just an emergent property of the state of the art. No way to know as just a standard consumer.  The pragmatic angle on that is one of protecting civility by "maybe" describing the worst a given situation is capable of becoming. However, in some sense ... the 'cry wolf' phenomenon.  I suspect that D3.5 is a critical 'conservation of momentum' window - if the amplitude in question relays through that period and maintains its panache on D3 ... perhaps the top 10 .. 30% is more dependable. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 12/15/2023 at 12:49 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

EPS far from  meh

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Yea for the Cape . 50 ain't shit

[Ginx snewx]

  On 12/15/2023 at 1:06 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

As an after thought on that ... we seem to have moved into an era of model tech where this correcting less amplified is all but dependable.   How much such from situation to situation is perhaps where the majority of the variability really lies - not if it will.   I began to notice this about 5 years ago, around the time all the fab three went through significant version overhauls.

I don't know if that is by design, or if it is just an emergent property of the state of the art. No way to know as just a standard consumer.  The pragmatic angle on that is one of protecting civility by "maybe" describing the worst a given situation is capable of becoming. However, in some sense ... the 'cry wolf' phenomenon.  I suspect that D3.5 is a critical 'conservation of momentum' window - if the amplitude in question relays through that period and maintains its panache on D3 ... perhaps the top 10 .. 30% is more dependable. 

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Noticed this too, Jan 22 did maintain its intensity but that's the last modeled storm I can remember that stayed constant in beast mode.

[weathafella]

It’s all about duration.  50 mph gusts within 30 mph sustained are one thing.  50 mph sustained with occasional higher gusts can cause widespread power issues.   Personally, I’d prefer mundane winds but I don’t get to choose my weather.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/15/2023 at 1:02 PM, CoastalWx said:

Euro was impressive at 925. Can’t get bufkit like you can for other models though. Gfs bufkit from IJD to SE Ma was eye opening. 

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Yeah Euro playing catch up again to GFS . Big boy  coming in hot  

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/15/2023 at 1:27 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah Euro playing catch up again to GFS . Big boy  coming in hot  

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Take the under bud(except the coast/cape)…this will continue to be less impressive as we close in…just like last week. I’ll be the first to admit if I’m wrong. I have zero problem doing that.  But as Tip lamented, these systems the last few years always seem to get much less “eye opening”, shall we say,  as we close in.  

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/15/2023 at 1:30 PM, WinterWolf said:

Take the under bud(except the coast/cape)…this will continue to be less impressive as we close in…just like last week. I’ll be the first to admit if I’m wrong. I have zero problem doing that.  But as Tip lamented, these systems the last few years always seem to get much less “eye opening”, shall we say,  as we close in.  

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Once again.. it goes west you roar . Think big . I don’t think he was saying anything like that 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/15/2023 at 1:08 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Noticed this too, Jan 22 did maintain its intensity but that's the last modeled storm I can remember that stayed constant in beast mode.

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Yes...   Also, the short duration but very intense cold snap last February.   That was also a phenomenon that relayed into shorter terms and did not back down.  Interesting

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/15/2023 at 1:31 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Once again.. it goes west you roar . Think big . I don’t think he was saying anything like that 

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Oh ya I agree..if it goes west. But that’s a big if still.  What he meant was, that these, and most storms of late, are modeled up in the high end of things, and then little by little they come back down to more run of the mill type stuff..that’s what he meant. Unless you get inside of 2.5-3 days, and it’s still showing a beast..well then maybe we have something here.  Let’s see what 12z brings us today?  

[greenmtnwx]

Long range hideous still

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/15/2023 at 1:41 PM, greenmtnwx said:

Long range hideous still

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Not really…what are you looking at? 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 12/15/2023 at 1:45 PM, WinterWolf said:

Not really…what are you looking at? 

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I believe he's looking at the beer cans from last night?

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/15/2023 at 1:24 PM, weathafella said:

It’s all about duration.  50 mph gusts within 30 mph sustained are one thing.  50 mph sustained with occasional higher gusts can cause widespread power issues.   Personally, I’d prefer mundane winds but I don’t get to choose my weather.

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Can you imagine if you were like an X-Men, and your weird mutation super power was that you could be like this urban legend cousin of "Storm" - kind of like the fading seen in "Empire Strikes Back" when fearing the loss of the "Luke," Yoda says to "Obi Wan" 's ghost, "No ... there is another." Only where she created lightning and thunder, you are actually capable of conjuring whole synoptic constructs? 

ho man...  If anyone found out.  You'd be so heavily sought after in every dimension of society, from the sophisticated 'monitor state' capacity of the Pentagon, to the stalker hired by the mystery unknown agency, Kevin, no place would be safe on Earth. You'd have to be constantly on the move ... Something like "Jason Bourne," always 2-steps ahead or else they'd catch you.  Hook up to all these EEG leads trying to figure out how to extract your ability from your brain and recreate it in an AI weather doom's day weapon.   That's kind of a cool outre sci-fi idea actually.

Or if you were smart about it... you could just make weather predictions capable of moving the Markets.  Creating culture modalities...etc...  But you'd have to cleverly fail ( deliberately) once in a while. Because you cannot risk the expose' tipping the NSA as to your ability, or you'd become the above sort of target ...etc.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/15/2023 at 1:47 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Can you imagine if you were like an X-Men, and your weird mutation super power was that you could be like "Storm" 's cousin - where she created lightning and thunder, you are actually conjure whole synoptic constructs?  

ho man...  If anyone found out.  You be heavily sought after in every dimension of society, from the Pentagon to stalker Kevin, no place would be safe on Earth. You'd have to be constantly on the move ... Something like "Jason Bourne," always 2-steps ahead or else they'd catch you.  Hook up to all these EEG leads trying to figure out how to extract your ability from your brain and recreate it in an AI weather doom's day weapon.   That's kind of a cool outre sci-fi idea actually.

Or if you were smart about it... you could just make weather predictions capable of moving the Markets.  Creating culture modalities...etc...  But you've cleverly fail ( deliberately) once in a while. Because you cannot risk the expose' tipping the NSA as your ability, or you because the above sort of target...etc.  

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I smell a Sci-fi publication....

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 12/15/2023 at 1:27 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah Euro playing catch up again to GFS . Big boy  coming in hot  

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GFS is windier as well bc it has MSLP west of us

[powderfreak]

  On 12/15/2023 at 1:06 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

As an after thought on that ... we seem to have moved into an era of model tech where this correcting less amplified is all but dependable.   How much so from situation to situation is perhaps where the majority of the variability really lies - not if it will.   I began to notice this about 5 years ago, around the time all the fab three went through significant version overhauls.

I don't know if that is by design, or if it is just an emergent property of the state of the art. No way to know as just a standard consumer.  The pragmatic angle on that is one of protecting civility by "maybe" describing the worst a given situation is capable of becoming. However, in some sense ... the 'cry wolf' phenomenon.  I suspect that D3.5 is a critical 'conservation of momentum' window - if the amplitude in question relays through that period and maintains its panache on D3 ... perhaps the top 10 .. 30% is more dependable. 

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Agreed.  It seemed 15-20 years ago you’d get the ETA and MRF to be too tame and something bombs and hugs the coast or is a super deep low with stronger winds.

Now it is almost always the models are going too far in the strength side of the system.

Maybe it’s a quickening jet, or whatever but the vast majority tend to become less impactful as H+0 approaches.

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/15/2023 at 1:51 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GFS is windier as well bc it has MSLP west of us

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Yeah. It could still tickle east like the last one. 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/15/2023 at 1:54 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah. It could still tickle east like the last one. 

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If my evil plot to have it be weaker overall transpire, it may come east for that physical reason.  I mean a stronger/overly zealous system in the models would tend to end up more west.  just sayn'

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/15/2023 at 1:46 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I believe he's looking at the beer cans from last night?

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He must be…holy smokes.