December 2023

[ORH_wxman]

GEM looks interesting. Like some of the EPS members on the trailing ULL. 
 

GFS is ridiculous in that it does that retrograde job and produces a bunch of snow/sleet/ice over the region in a long duration event next weekend. Selling that clown look. 

[Hazey]

What a dreadful look for Christmas on GFS. Raging rain storm with a raw warmish NE wind. Good god. Lets hope it's junk but with our luck, that will be the solution.

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Backs the SLP west over a CAD, That would be quite icy.

Two years ago, just before my dad passed, we had some snow and ice on Christmas Eve and Christmas. It was beautiful and comforting. Hope we get something to fit in this year too, but even if we don’t, signs look good heading into the new year.
 

[Chrisrotary12]

This frame would be a lot more interesting if there was the miller A freight train exiting due north. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEM looks interesting. Like some of the EPS members on the trailing ULL. 
 

GFS is ridiculous in that it does that retrograde job and produces a bunch of snow/sleet/ice over the region in a long duration event next weekend. Selling that clown look. 

That low pressure tracks north of the Virgin Islands and curves up to New England just like a tropical cyclone. Been there a few runs now with that track. 

[SouthCoastMA]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

WTF is the GFS doing lol. What a blocky run.

Reverse grinch

[Hoth]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It really can’t be a Grinch with no snow pack to melt 

Facts.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Facts.

So a 60° rainer on Christmas Eve is just another rainer to you if there’s no snow to melt? 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Reverse grinch

King of all Grinch storms with that track.  

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEM looks interesting. Like some of the EPS members on the trailing ULL. 
 

GFS is ridiculous in that it does that retrograde job and produces a bunch of snow/sleet/ice over the region in a long duration event next weekend. Selling that clown look. 

I was joking about that earlier, 'does sleet count as a white xmas'   ha

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

So a 60° rainer on Christmas Eve is just another rainer to you if there’s no snow to melt? 

I dunno man.. whether it’s 60 and rain or 34 and rain .. if there’s no snow to melt ..to me it’s just another in a long list of Rainers 

[Typhoon Tip]

As Will hinted ... GGEM with borderline warning snow for the eastern ORH highlands

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, Supernovice said:

My timeline is blowing up w/ mets saying the latest forecast for El Nino, is that it has peaked or is peaking, and will subside as move through the rest of winter.  What are the practical implications- climatologically speaking?

EL Nino's typically peak in the late Fall/early winter then begin to weak (exception being super strong events which tend to maintain there strength through winter). 

But this should not really have an impact on anyone's thoughts for how the rest of winter will proceed. 

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

King of all Grinch storms with that track.  

Yeah I spoke too soon  

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie is interesting too but it has the ULL a little bit west of optimal so the snow is mostly in far western SNE into SE NY. 
 

But at this range, we’re mostly just interested in the trend of a trailing ULL being strong enough to spark cyclogensis to our south…we’ve seen it on the GEM and Ukie….GFS is not biting but I have a feeling the Euro might considering the EPS look at 06z. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is interesting too but it has the ULL a little bit west of optimal so the snow is mostly in far western SNE into SE NY. 
 

But at this range, we’re mostly just interested in the trend of a trailing ULL being strong enough to spark cyclogensis to our south…we’ve seen it on the GEM and Ukie….GFS is not biting but I have a feeling the Euro might considering the EPS look at 06z. 

I would have started a thread for all this a week ago but ... hard to see the doing so without inciting a lot of backlash if the primary ptype is rain, and otherwise ... failing wind headlines.  

Fact of that matter is, this interval/signaled active scenario was evidenced even prior to the operational runs in some cases.  Most of this is abysmal handling of the complex interaction in whether the N/stream gets involved, tune and forcing.   These hangover ULL snow chances are all happening because this thing is actually failing to phase. Any N/stream at all is a relatively new guest to the party, but these models plumb it down in and then the S/stream bottle rockets out of it and leaves the N/stream to cut-off.  It's really it's own event.

Also, there's cold air in the hemisphere - the N/stream and timing confluences .... where the f is southern Canada, though.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I would have started a thread for all this a week ago but ... hard to see the doing so without inciting a lot of backlash if the primary ptype is rain, and otherwise ... failing wind headlines.  

Fact of that matter is, this interval/signaled active scenario was evidenced even prior to the operational runs in some cases.  

Also, there's cold air in the hemisphere - the N/stream and timing confluences .... where the f is southern Canada

How about those H5 heights near 570 there. Can we get 80s?  

[Ginx snewx]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

Cheap midnight highs, but that was a -10°F afternoon here not including wind chill. One of the most brutal afternoons. 

Windchill was minus 30s 40s all Christmas Night I will never forget the walk back from the club to the car at 11pm. 

[Ginx snewx]

It's gonna be white Grasshoppers.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Windchill was minus 30s 40s all Christmas Night I will never forget the walk back from the club to the car at 11pm. 

Blue Oyster?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

It's gonna be white Grasshoppers.

Cocaine?

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/12/mild-december-continues-with-changes.html

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Cocaine?

[Snowcrazed71]

I'm thinking the best thing to do is just let December go. Stop thinking that we're going to get that white Christmas snow covered ground for the holiday. If it happens then great. For me. The end goal is that we really do change to a winter pattern as we head to January and then I can last for a few months. I guarantee you that if it does happen that way that all of this will be forgotten. Too many people put too much stock into December being a snowy month and it's just not climatologically that way ( at least not southern Eastern New England on South ). 

[ROOSTA]

A good sign with these systems modelled to "PHASE" going forward it possibly has a bomb or two in Jan.-Mar.  
'93' without a cold airmass.
This present event still has a way to go to resolve. Where it forms, track and timing will be critical to what happens around my environs.
Intrigue is back. Feels good to be tracking.   

[Heisy]

Ukie is interesting too but it has the ULL a little bit west of optimal so the snow is mostly in far western SNE into SE NY. 
 
But at this range, we’re mostly just interested in the trend of a trailing ULL being strong enough to spark cyclogensis to our south…we’ve seen it on the GEM and Ukie….GFS is not biting but I have a feeling the Euro might considering the EPS look at 06z. 

Will, any events off the top of your head with a similar trailer wave that blew up? Pretty odd setup to me with such a strong lead storm


.

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Will, any events off the top of your head with a similar trailer wave that blew up? Pretty odd setup to me with such a strong lead storm


.

This probably won’t even end up anything like what we’re seeing currently….lots to resolve yet…and modeling of late has been pretty volatile.   Who knows what this morphs into by mid next week? 

[Layman]

14 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm thinking the best thing to do is just let December go. Stop thinking that we're going to get that white Christmas snow covered ground for the holiday. If it happens then great. For me. The end goal is that we really do change to a winter pattern as we head to January and then I can last for a few months. I guarantee you that if it does happen that way that all of this will be forgotten. Too many people put too much stock into December being a snowy month and it's just not climatologically that way ( at least not southern Eastern New England on South ). 

 

23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It's gonna be white Grasshoppers.

 

[Torch Tiger]

19 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm thinking the best thing to do is just let December go. Stop thinking that we're going to get that white Christmas snow covered ground for the holiday. If it happens then great. For me. The end goal is that we really do change to a winter pattern as we head to January and then I can last for a few months. I guarantee you that if it does happen that way that all of this will be forgotten. Too many people put too much stock into December being a snowy month and it's just not climatologically that way ( at least not southern Eastern New England on South ). 

no one thinks Dec. Is a climo snowy month, it's just all the mets went wild in Novie because of some faux cold/ snowy weeklies, and it obviously crashed and burned

[CoastalWx]

I think most said closer to the 20th or after even late Novie. I did think we'd have some chances (even of light) before Christmas, but that didn't happen really. Unless we hope some crazy think happens next week.