December 2023

[MJO812]

Surprise

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Funny, but Miller Bs are a problem down here.  The new surface low bombs at the baroclinic boundary that is the coast and forms the first big def band over NJ into the HV.  That band decays while a triple point forms, the new low takes over further east, and a new band forms for you guys.  Our best storms seem to be lucky As that that track just inside the BM.

I don’t like Bs for us WOR folks. Ideally a hybrid but I’ll roll with a A and take a chance at LBSW instead of a B that LBEMA. 

[NorEastermass128]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We need Skeletor to sell the team.

He walked past me with his entourage to his seats last year. Man, did he look brittle. A gust of wind could have sent him flying into right field. 

[H2Otown_WX]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t like Bs for us WOR folks. Ideally a hybrid but I’ll roll with a A and take a chance at LBSW instead of a B that LBEMA. 

A lot of our best storms are Miller Bs. Miller A usually is LBSW.

2/5/01, 12/9/05 (though that was better East of us), 1/12/11, and I think maybe 1/26/11, and of course 2/9/13 (Nemo) were all Miller Bs.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

A lot of our best storms are Miller Bs. Miller A usually is LBSW.

2/5/01, 12/9/05 (though that was better East of us), 1/12/11, and I think maybe 1/26/11, and of course 2/9/13 (Nemo) were all Miller Bs.

Ya we’ve gotten porked recently but our bread and butter is still B. 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

No that was the 12/29/76 storm....the 1981 storm was decent in ORH...I think they had close to a foot. But it was definitely better in the 128 belt where some 18+ amounts happened.

That 12/29-30/76 storm dumped 12" at our Fort Kent home, atop the ~2' from 26-27.  We drove home thru the night from NNJ, hitting snowy roads in Mass and falling snow shortly after crossing the Piscataqua.  Reaching BGR in S+ about 4 AM, we stopped at HoJo's for a big coffee and headed north.  That coffee went right thru me and blessedly, the outhouse at the Medway rest stop had TP.  With the temp in the low teens, using powder snow would not have been fun.  
Got to FK about 9 AM, and our blue Beetle was merely a white lump.  Less than 5 minutes after parking the pickup, the NW backsides were blasting at 40-50 and visibility dropped to 50 feet in the gusts - could not see Pelletier Florist across the street.  Very fortunate that those winds didn't come while we were between PQI and CAR.
 

CON was 18° at midnight but the afternoon high was -8° at nearly 20kt sustained. Yeah, no thanks. 
KCON 251900Z 31018KT 20SM CLR M22/M33 A3015 RMK SLP220 T12211332

Had 9° at my 9 PM obs time and -23 the next morning with winds gusting 40+.  Afternoon max was -16 and the 3" from the evening before was blowing a blizzard.  !st CT Lake, with its 7 AM obs time, reported -24/-32 for 12/26.  Outside of MWN, it's tied with Jan 15, 2004 on Mansfield for the lowest max I've seen in New England.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1735299387180327187?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Spanks45]

12z Icon snows in DC, rains to Maine on the second wave... Bright side, can the Icon that far out, actually be correct?

[Go Kart Mozart]

51 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Feb 2013?

Yes, that's the exception, but I am hard pressed to think of another B that didn't give more to my west and east.  Not to say that As can't screw us too, but I think that is more of a stochastic thing, while the B screwage has a physical explanation (at least in  my mind).

[Go Kart Mozart]

56 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t like Bs for us WOR folks. Ideally a hybrid but I’ll roll with a A and take a chance at LBSW instead of a B that LBEMA. 

Yes, hybrids are a good thing.  And I think you just won the acronym usage award for 2023!

[Supernovice]

My timeline is blowing up w/ mets saying the latest forecast for El Nino, is that it has peaked or is peaking, and will subside as move through the rest of winter.  What are the practical implications- climatologically speaking?

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

12z Icon snows in DC, rains to Maine on the second wave... Bright side, can the Icon that far out, actually be correct?

Ray will say he's happy because he had it in his outlook, and then take his daughter's dollhouse and do a Chun-Li kick to it like Street Fighter 2.

[DJln491]

12z GFS looks quite a bit east compared to previous few runs.   

edit: ended up in the same spot though eventually.  

[NorEastermass128]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1735299387180327187?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

That looks right. AEMATT porked. 

[brooklynwx99]

there has been a pretty well defined trend to sharpen the trailing NS vort. could make things interesting if it crosses the tipping point and cuts off

[dendrite]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1735299387180327187?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

 

[dryslot]

Just pour some battery acid into your eyes,

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
930 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033-NHZ001>015-151430-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-
Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York-
Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-
Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-
Interior Cumberland Highlands-Northern Coos-Southern Coos-
Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-
Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-Cheshire-Eastern Hillsborough-
Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham-
Western And Central Hillsborough-
930 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,
southwest Maine, west central Maine, western Maine, New Hampshire,
central New Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New
Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heavy, soaking rainfall is expected Sunday night into Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

[brooklynwx99]

that NS vort is becoming more and more interesting

[ineedsnow]

CMC  

[CoastalWx]

What a disaster run.

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that NS vort is becoming more and more interesting

It get a little something going after the initial cutter departs. It’s intriguing to see a window open on the globals. 

[Hazey]

It's just amazing how consistently hostile things get either just before or on Christmas. Year after year no matter the pattern. Blows my mind.

[CoastalWx]

WTF is the GFS doing lol. What a blocky run.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Hazey said:

It's just amazing how consistently hostile things get either just before or on Christmas. Year after year no matter the pattern. Blows my mind.

Compared to other years though it looks increasingly likely that we don’t see a grinch storm. That’s a win to me. 

I define a grinch storm as being much closer to Christmas than Monday’s storm. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Compared to other years though it looks increasingly likely that we don’t see a grinch storm. That’s a win to me. 

I define a grinch storm as being much closer to Christmas than Monday’s storm. 

It really can’t be a Grinch with no snow pack to melt 

[dryslot]

Backs the SLP west over a CAD, That would be quite icy.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It really can’t be a Grinch with no snow pack to melt 

Any warm rainer around Christmas is a grinch to me. 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

WTF is the GFS doing lol. What a blocky run.

Beer. Maybe even some moonshine.

[dryslot]

Don't need snow on the ground for a rainstorm on Christmas, Still a grinch storm.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Beer. Maybe even some moonshine.

Gallons of eggnog.