December 2023

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Almost looks like the 12/5-6/81 storm that backed it from the east. 

That is the one that gave me like 20" and ORH 5" hahaha

[Typhoon Tip]

It's 'a little' less common to cut a low from a starting point around Atlanta GA, but in this era of repeating negative results I guess.  

The EPS 00z 500 mb depicts the N/stream crashing the party over Chicago.  That's new.  Some of the guidance had been fiddling with more phasing  - this particular run didn't fiddle around!  That'll do it.   

Anyway, whether that happens or not really doesn't change a rainy windy time for everyone - just a matter of where the low goes.  

There may be some 'pinch' low lingering hope later in the week but that should/could be considered a different event if something does like the 06z GFS.

[Damage In Tolland]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we’ll have to watch the ULL…nothing last night was great verbatim but it was very close on a few different solutions. Might be able to sneak a few inches if it broke right…low probability but plausible. 

It’s all we’ve got . Might as well watch 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's 'a little' less common to cut a low from a starting point around Atlanta GA, but in this era of repeating negative results I guess.  

The EPS 00z 500 mb depicts the N/stream bullying over Chicago.  That's new.  Some of the guidance had been fiddling with more phasing  - this particular run didn't fiddle around!  That'll do it.   

This, along with occlusion, is one of the reasons I hate Miller A systems....sure, Miller B can hug/cut or occlude...but there is more time for unfavorable developments when they cover that much more ground. Nothing like having all of those nascent mechanics explode into existence right underneath Long Island...much more margin for error.

I get that having the N stream phase in too aggressively is the issue here, but just saying....less time to do that if it had developed later.

[Typhoon Tip]

Does rattling sleet for an hour count as a white Xmas

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Pretty much a disaster storm for VT on euro , cutter then follow up is so negatively tilted Stowe rains while Catskills snow verbatim. 

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is the one that gave me like 20" and ORH 5" hahaha

No that was the 12/29/76 storm....the 1981 storm was decent in ORH...I think they had close to a foot. But it was definitely better in the 128 belt where some 18+ amounts happened.

[CoastalWx]

Kevin hoping for a reach around. Not the first time I’ve heard this. 

[WinterWolf]

25 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Yup, Christmas 80 didn’t get above freezing if I recall. 

Above zero is more like it…probably like 4-5 degrees with big wind. Brutal.

[Lava Rock]

51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

10 day fantasies aside.. still some guidance offering some backside snows after the cutter to Quebec City . ULL lingers behind some energy . That’s our most realistic hope for anything prior to Xmas. 

close the shades. looks terrible

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Above zero is more like it…probably like 4-5 degrees with big wind. Brutal.

Cheap midnight highs, but that was a -10°F afternoon here not including wind chill. One of the most brutal afternoons. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Cheap midnight highs, but that was a -10°F afternoon here not including wind chill. One of the most brutal afternoons. 

I’d take a 55 degree torch over that crap 

[dendrite]

18 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

close the shades. looks terrible

Bridging the gap to the May 1st thread

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kevin hoping for a reach around. Not the first time I’ve heard this. 

It’s an ULL moving out south of us . Surprises coming 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’d take a 55 degree torch over that crap 

CON was 18° at midnight but the afternoon high was -8° at nearly 20kt sustained. Yeah, no thanks. 
 

KCON 251900Z 31018KT 20SM CLR M22/M33 A3015 RMK SLP220 T12211332

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Does rattling sleet for an hour count as a white Xmas

These days, in my books, it does. 

[kdxken]

29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Cheap midnight highs, but that was a -10°F afternoon here not including wind chill. One of the most brutal afternoons. 

Definitely in the top five of coldest that I remember.  Decided I would be the first one on the lift at Burke mountain. I seriously considered jumping off after about 200 ft. Rode the lift back down.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s an ULL moving out south of us . Surprises coming 

Here is a surprise

[dryslot]

Oh there will be some surprises all right.

[CoastalWx]

EPS trying for a surprise at day 6. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS trying for a surprise at day 6. 

Been a lot of "trying" the past several years between the weather and Sox' front office.

[CoastalWx]

I heard some interesting responses as to why the pattern did not move forward as anticipated 2 weeks or so ago. Over the last two months each of the MJO passages were followed by a big downwelling couplet. This latest one has not featured that and in fact combined with a standing wave at the dateline. So there might have been enhanced mass transport north...IE fueling the PAC jet. We finally are seeing a Nino response.

 

I think once that subsides it will help force more of an Aleutian low. Indeed you can see that on guidance. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Been a lot of "trying" the past several years between the weather and Sox' front office.

I have more faith in a low backing in vs the RedSox FO.

[dryslot]

We have a better chance of getting annafront snow and a Norlun then the Sox in FA getting anything done.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We have a better chance of getting annafront snow and a Norlun then the Sox in FA getting anything done.

We need Skeletor to sell the team.

[40/70 Benchmark]

"By the Power of Greyskull, I hereby command you to SELL!!!"

[mreaves]

42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here is a surprise

Considering who you quoted, that's not really a surprise at all.

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This, along with occlusion, is one of the reasons I hate Miller A systems....sure, Miller B can hug/cut or occlude...but there is more time for unfavorable developments when they cover that much more ground. Nothing like having all of those nascent mechanics explode into existence right underneath Long Island...much more margin for error.

I get that having the N stream phase in too aggressively is the issue here, but just saying....less time to do that if it had developed later.

Funny, but Miller Bs are a problem down here.  The new surface low bombs at the baroclinic boundary that is the coast and forms the first big def band over NJ into the HV.  That band decays while a triple point forms, the new low takes over further east, and a new band forms for you guys.  Our best storms seem to be lucky As that that track just inside the BM.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

13 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Funny, but Miller Bs are a problem down here.  The new surface low bombs at the baroclinic boundary that is the coast and forms the first big def band over NJ into the HV.  That band decays while a triple point forms, the new low takes over further east, and a new band forms for you guys.  Our best storms seem to be lucky As that that track just inside the BM.

Feb 2013?

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Bridging the gap to the May 1st thread

It's always an exciting time when firing up the May 1st thread. Sometimes it even helps get winter going. But pretty crazy, in a few weeks we'll only be 4 months away