December 2023

[brooklynwx99]

this is about as big of a positive change in the Pacific pattern as you can see, compared from a couple days ago. really want to see this idea gain some traction

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS a little interesting. 

Gettin’ a little tickle in the pickle?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gettin’ a little tickle in the pickle?

There’s definitely some backside tickling he’s getting from the gefs. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There’s definitely some backside tickling he’s getting from the gefs. 

Can you hear the giggles from here?

[WinterWolf]

Dec of 92 was like that here…tons of precipitation, with heavy heavy rain, that transitioned to frozen precip almost 18-24 gets after it started, and snowed the whole next day.  
 

Now Before anybody says I’m saying this is Dec of 92, I’m certainly not. Just comparing the amount of precip that looks to “possibly” be associated with this thing, and seeing some other possibilities that “could” be on the table,  that somewhat reminds me of that Dec 92 idea.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Can you hear the giggles from here?

A small pleasure at this stage of the season but one we sense you’ll happily take.

[ORH_wxman]

Most other guidance is pretty warm still for 12/18-19 but the period after that is starting to look more interesting even if that one doesn’t produce anything. Might have an opportunity in the 12/21-12/26 range. 

[Modfan2]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Dec of 92 was like that here…tons of precipitation, with heavy heavy rain, that transitioned to frozen precip almost 18-24 gets after it started, and snowed the whole next day.  
 

Now Before anybody says I’m saying this is Dec of 92, I’m certainly not. Just comparing the amount of precip that looks to “possibly” be associated with this thing, and seeing some other possibilities that “could” be on the table,  that somewhat reminds me of that Dec 92 idea.  

Remember it quite well, was delivering for Dominos to Nichols College on the Hill in Dudley, pounding snow at the school with 3-4” on the ground and just rain at lower elevation at the store

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most other guidance is pretty warm still for 12/18-19 but the period after that is starting to look more interesting even if that one doesn’t produce anything. Might have an opportunity in the 12/21-12/26 range. 

yeah the wave breaking that's showing up in the Pacific could be a game changer. want to see other ENS and suites bite on it, but the OP GFS has been very consistent on it over the last couple of days

it makes sense. the weak SPV leaves the pattern more prone to blocking

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Remember it quite well, was delivering for Dominos to Nichols College on the Hill in Dudley, pounding snow at the school with 3-4” on the ground and just rain at lower elevation at the store

I would have kept "ordering" more for the house on the hill lol

[DavisStraight]

7 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Remember it quite well, was delivering for Dominos to Nichols College on the Hill in Dudley, pounding snow at the school with 3-4” on the ground and just rain at lower elevation at the store

If you drove another 3-4 miles to the high spot in Charlton it would have been unreal, they got 36 inches of wind shipped snow, my sister couldn't get out her front door because the snow had drifted so high.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

If you drove another 3-4 miles to the high spot in Charlton it would have been unreal, they got 36 inches of wind shipped snow, my sister couldn't get out her front door because the snow had drifted so high.

Where was her craving for pizza when @Modfan2needed it lol

[met_fan]

I can't help it, I'm a social person and nothing like a good browse through a book store.

I am very much not a social person and there is still nothing better than browsing a good book store.

[Lava Rock]

33 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

2-3” of rain during the cold season is about avg these days . 

Very festive

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

I would say that big ice storms south of the Worcester and Mass Pike area are much more rare than even big wind events. North of the Pike its probably the opposite with December 2008 and several others happening there, but less wind than far SNE. November 1921 was for ice in SNE what November 1950 was for wind, ie benchmark, top end, multigenerational event. Maybe even more rare than getting a major hurricane.

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Dec of 92 was like that here…tons of precipitation, with heavy heavy rain, that transitioned to frozen precip almost 18-24 gets after it started, and snowed the whole next day.  
 

Now Before anybody says I’m saying this is Dec of 92, I’m certainly not. Just comparing the amount of precip that looks to “possibly” be associated with this thing, and seeing some other possibilities that “could” be on the table,  that somewhat reminds me of that Dec 92 idea.  

Ray shouldn't be bunning people; in principle you are right.

One thing about December events of any kind, they tend to be seasonal-latency charged with PWAT. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ray shouldn't be bunning people; in principle you are right.

One thing about December events of any kind, the tend to be seasonal-latency charged with PWAT. 

Lol…he bunned me?  Geez I even prefaced my post with the caveats that I’m not saying it’s Dec 92, just that what’s being shown on at least one of the models, is a little reminiscent with highly anomalous precip and all…
 

Tough crowd. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This SLP maxes out in N FL to S Georgia area then gradually weakens 

I was wondering if there was any chance this could end up becoming an occluded dud and we get nothing much outside of some showers or whatever. I think there there is too much northern stream interaction going on to prevent such a scenario. 

[MJOatleast7]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Really not sure what to think of it. I mean when you look at how 500mb evolves, the scenario is a plausible one, doesn't mean it's likely but at this stage you can't really discount anything. 

The PWAT anomalies are absolutely insane. 5+ SD across a large area

Some Hunga Tonga water in there too I feel

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I was wondering if there was any chance this could end up becoming an occluded dud and we get nothing much outside of some showers or whatever. I think there there is too much northern stream interaction going on to prevent such a scenario. 

Doesn’t have to be all that strong to deliver huge amounts of precip though…but like I said the other day…keep it south. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Doesn’t have to be all that strong to deliver huge amounts of precip though…but like I said the other day…keep it south. 

True but depends on evolution and processes involved. In the event occlusion were to occur and it happened within the Southeast...that probably would drastically negate widespread heavy rain potential because the degree of WAA (which seems to be a huge driver in the potential) would be significantly weakened as would the degree of large scale lift. 

We saw something similar occur not very long ago. Don't remember if it was later in the summer or earlier in the Fall. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Over all I like the trends since yesterday's 12z abomination ... well, make that the last 3 day's worth of abomination. 

Which may not be saying much... the needle really couldn't move any more deeply embedded in the cistern of shittiness so any movement at all was going to be an improvement?   sure - you can snark that back at me but I disagree.  This was more of a qualitative step in a better direction. 

 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

True but depends on evolution and processes involved. In the event occlusion were to occur and it happened within the Southeast...that probably would drastically negate widespread heavy rain potential because the degree of WAA (which seems to be a huge driver in the potential) would be significantly weakened as would the degree of large scale lift. 

We saw something similar occur not very long ago. Don't remember if it was later in the summer or earlier in the Fall. 

Oh I get ya Wiz about the occlusion…but if that northern stream is heavily involved as you mentioned, then she probably isn’t staying south.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I was wondering if there was any chance this could end up becoming an occluded dud and we get nothing much outside of some showers or whatever. I think there there is too much northern stream interaction going on to prevent such a scenario. 

If that indeed occurs and is a prelude to the seasonal tenure, we’ll have to punt Ray into March so he can focus on baseball while we clean up ravaged holiday decorations in and around his property and find temporary foster care for his kids. Disaster awaits.

[Typhoon Tip]

Hunga Tonga is passe

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If that indeed occurs and is a prelude to the seasonal tenure, we’ll have to punt Ray into March so he can focus on baseball while we clean up ravaged holiday decorations in and around his property and find temporary foster care for his kids. Disaster awaits.

Yea, that new dollhouse would be toast

[alex]

Some fun driving today 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That, that new dollhouse would be toast

I can picture you smashing the doll house and biting dolls heads off. Kid holding onto your ankles as you storm out the room “LBSW sweetie, you don’t understand but one day you will. One day.”

[Winter Wizard]

Euro looks like deja vu from this week but with an even stronger storm. Deluge to heavy wet snow is certainly a plausible idea for the interior depending how the low occludes. 

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I can picture you smashing the doll house and biting dolls heads off. Kid holding onto your ankles as you storm out the room “LBSW sweetie, you don’t understand but one day you will. One day.”