dryslot Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 1:12 AM, FXWX said: I've seen in book stores; Barnes & Nobles? Expand People even still shop Brick & Mortar? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 1:00 AM, ORH_wxman said: What? There’s been no preference on the MJO this cold season Expand don’t even bother lmao it’s disingenuous 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 you’re getting towards something better at the end of the 18z GEFS. got a trough undercutting N Canada ridging… you can get a wave break in the ATL and send that ridging towards Greenland. that’s what happens on the OP 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Severe season begins May 1 but we don't cancel severe season on May 20th when we haven't had anything 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/12/2023 at 10:53 PM, Layman said: My Amazon order for this book got cancelled. No reason given. Not sure what this means for winter... Expand Mine shipped yesterday, I have a tracking number, Maybe the last one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 1:24 AM, weatherwiz said: Severe season begins May 1 but we don't cancel severe season on May 20th when we haven't had anything Expand But it’s only December 12th..And it’s(winter) already been cancelled(we’ll at least to the end of January)…these folks didn’t even wait the extra 8 days lol. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 1:02 AM, qg_omega said: Stalled in 7 Expand Look where it's going 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 1:31 AM, WinterWolf said: But it’s only December 12th..And it’s(winter) already been cancelled(we’ll at least to the end of January)…these folks didn’t even wait the extra 8 days lol. Expand Nothing for you next month bud 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 1:34 AM, qg_omega said: Nothing for you next month bud Expand 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 12:41 AM, WJX231 said: Must've been nice to be alive in that 1938-1960 period with like five major wind events in 20 years. 1938, 1950 Appalachian, Carol, Edna, and Donna. I think 1950 impresses me the most besides 1938 because how often does HFD get 70 sustained with gusts to 100 from a non-tropical entity? A repeat of 1950 would be really neat. Imagine another 1950 only in January or February with 70 sustained winds and like -50 wind chills? Would be insane to witness firsthand. Expand Yup. I’ll never ever understand the disdain for big wind events in here. There’s a core group that loves them , but there’s some who would rather have sun and boredom. I’d take a major wind event over snow 1 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 1:21 AM, brooklynwx99 said: you’re getting towards something better at the end of the 18z GEFS. got a trough undercutting N Canada ridging… you can get a wave break in the ATL and send that ridging towards Greenland. that’s what happens on the OP Expand Yes that would fit MJO phase 8 pattern. I wonder if the charts were wrong about the MJO stalling in phase 7 as the charts are now showing it moving into phase 8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 1:37 AM, leo2000 said: Yes that would fit MJO phase 8 pattern. I wonder if the charts were wrong about the MJO stalling in phase 7 as the charts are now showing it moving into phase 8. Expand To be honest…all this longer range stuff has been abysmal of late. I don’t think we can put any reasonable credit into them at the moment. Tough time for modeling. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 1:36 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Yup. I’ll never ever understand the disdain for big wind events in here. There’s a core group that loves them , but there’s some who would rather have sun and boredom. I’d take a major wind event over snow Expand Probably they just don't want to deal with the damage, which I can understand, especially people who live around a lot of tall trees. But personally I will take crazy winds of that caliber over snow as well. Snow is fun too don't get me wrong but I think the roar and sheer power of wind is much more fascinating. I hope I get to see something like that in my lifetime. For me personally March 2, 2018 is the benchmark for long duration intense winds, although a microburst in July 2012 also gave very brief 80-90 mph gusts and blinding rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 1:44 AM, WJX231 said: Probably they just don't want to deal with the damage, which I can understand, especially people who live around a lot of tall trees. But personally I will take crazy winds of that caliber over snow as well. Snow is fun too don't get me wrong but I think the roar and sheer power of wind is much more fascinating. I hope I get to see something like that in my lifetime. For me personally March 2, 2018 is the benchmark for long duration intense winds, although a microburst in July 2012 also gave very brief 80-90 mph gusts and blinding rain. Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 1:42 AM, WinterWolf said: To be honest…all this longer range stuff has been abysmal of late. I don’t think we can put any reasonable credit into them at the moment. Tough time for modeling. Expand The weeklies looked great until they didn't, December in a Mod Nino has always been a crap shoot. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 81 mph TAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 1:55 AM, dryslot said: The weeklies looked great until they didn't, December in a Mod Nino has always been a crap shoot. Expand Yes sir. And December here in SNE is a crapshoot in any Enso phase. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 1:54 AM, Torch Tiger said: Expand I remember that one well! I was very young. Winds weren't the big story with that in my area at least. February 8-9, 2013 was by far the most intense winds I've ever seen in a blizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 1:21 AM, brooklynwx99 said: you’re getting towards something better at the end of the 18z GEFS. got a trough undercutting N Canada ridging… you can get a wave break in the ATL and send that ridging towards Greenland. that’s what happens on the OP Expand Still garbage pacific air mass. Look at the source region. Think we need to wait until January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 2:08 AM, psv88 said: Still garbage pacific air mass. Look at the source region. Think we need to wait until January. Expand at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2023 Author Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 2:12 AM, Torch Tiger said: at least Expand More margin for error at least in terms of climo by January. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 2:14 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: More margin for error at least in terms of climo by January. Expand we'll see what happens. I'd not be very excited for awhile...let's just hope it's stormy by January/February and not January is typical a month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 2:08 AM, psv88 said: Still garbage pacific air mass. Look at the source region. Think we need to wait until January. Expand nah, draw the OP out at least and you’d get a ridge bridge into AK going. wave breaks lead to weird stuff. not confident on anything like that and we probably do have to wait until Jan, but things can get interesting when you have the STJ undercutting like that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 1:15 AM, dryslot said: People even still shop Brick & Mortar? Expand I can't help it, I'm a social person and nothing like a good browse through a book store. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2023 Author Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 2:48 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: I can't help it, I'm a naughty boy and nothing like a good browse through a neighbor's window Expand Hungry, hungry Hippy 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 1:03 AM, UnitedWx said: The weather variety is awesome. We're finally getting to visit Thailand next year. Absolutely beautiful country, but it's always sort of hot, hot, rain and hot rain I don't know if I could live with that all the time Expand would drive me crazy. I spent 4 years in Florida for college...yuck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 1:03 AM, dryslot said: I rode a buddy of mines 2020 last year and didn't want to get off it Expand so much could be done with this... 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/13/2023 at 1:42 AM, WinterWolf said: To be honest…all this longer range stuff has been abysmal of late. I don’t think we can put any reasonable credit into them at the moment. Tough time for modeling. Expand Got that right! Look at almost every run of the GFS op in the long range. Can't nail down anything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Yea it’s warm, but take up those progged surface temps with this look, Saturday and Sunday. Low 50’s make more sense across SNE away from the immediate shore. …Heavy clouds and all, this is a furnace that’s going to take the climo corrections to the woodshed. Won’t see it in guidance, ever, either—we’ll just wake up to it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 It truly doesn’t get more ugly than the 00z gfs. Flooding rains for most of New England followed by days and days of drizzle and light rain leading up to Christmas. shut em down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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