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December 2023


40/70 Benchmark
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  On 12/13/2023 at 1:24 AM, weatherwiz said:

Severe season begins May 1 but we don't cancel severe season on May 20th when we haven't had anything

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But it’s only December 12th..And it’s(winter) already been cancelled(we’ll at least to the end of January)…these folks didn’t even wait the extra 8 days lol. 

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  On 12/13/2023 at 12:41 AM, WJX231 said:

Must've been nice to be alive in that 1938-1960 period with like five major wind events in 20 years. 1938, 1950 Appalachian, Carol, Edna, and Donna. I think 1950 impresses me the most besides 1938 because how often does HFD get 70 sustained with gusts to 100 from a non-tropical entity? A repeat of 1950 would be really neat. Imagine  another 1950 only in January or February with 70 sustained winds and like -50 wind chills? Would be insane to witness firsthand.

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Yup. I’ll never ever understand the disdain for big wind events in here. There’s a core group that loves them , but there’s some who would rather have sun and boredom. I’d take a major wind event over snow 

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  On 12/13/2023 at 1:21 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

you’re getting towards something better at the end of the 18z GEFS. got a trough undercutting N Canada ridging… you can get a wave break in the ATL and send that ridging towards Greenland. that’s what happens on the OP

IMG_3675.thumb.png.b1cfd25596abcbefb822fbd4a219e1e8.pngIMG_3676.thumb.png.0ed4f69e237b4b6e135fbf6be45d718e.png

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Yes that would fit MJO phase 8 pattern. I wonder if the charts were wrong about the MJO stalling in phase 7 as the charts are now showing it moving into phase 8. 

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  On 12/13/2023 at 1:37 AM, leo2000 said:

Yes that would fit MJO phase 8 pattern. I wonder if the charts were wrong about the MJO stalling in phase 7 as the charts are now showing it moving into phase 8. 

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To be honest…all this longer range stuff has been abysmal of late.  I don’t think we can put any reasonable credit into them at the moment. Tough time for modeling. 

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  On 12/13/2023 at 1:36 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup. I’ll never ever understand the disdain for big wind events in here. There’s a core group that loves them , but there’s some who would rather have sun and boredom. I’d take a major wind event over snow 

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Probably they just don't want to deal with the damage, which I can understand, especially people who live around a lot of tall trees. But personally I will take crazy winds of that caliber over snow as well. Snow is fun too don't get me wrong but I think the roar and sheer power of wind is much more fascinating. I hope I get to see something like that in my lifetime. For me personally March 2, 2018 is the benchmark for long duration intense winds, although a microburst in July 2012 also gave very brief 80-90 mph gusts and blinding rain.

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  On 12/13/2023 at 1:44 AM, WJX231 said:

Probably they just don't want to deal with the damage, which I can understand, especially people who live around a lot of tall trees. But personally I will take crazy winds of that caliber over snow as well. Snow is fun too don't get me wrong but I think the roar and sheer power of wind is much more fascinating. I hope I get to see something like that in my lifetime. For me personally March 2, 2018 is the benchmark for long duration intense winds, although a microburst in July 2012 also gave very brief 80-90 mph gusts and blinding rain.

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:pimp:

EoFh4x9UYAE0cSB.jpg

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  On 12/13/2023 at 1:21 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

you’re getting towards something better at the end of the 18z GEFS. got a trough undercutting N Canada ridging… you can get a wave break in the ATL and send that ridging towards Greenland. that’s what happens on the OP

IMG_3675.thumb.png.b1cfd25596abcbefb822fbd4a219e1e8.pngIMG_3676.thumb.png.0ed4f69e237b4b6e135fbf6be45d718e.png

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Still garbage pacific air mass. Look at the source region. Think we need to wait until January. 

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  On 12/13/2023 at 2:08 AM, psv88 said:

Still garbage pacific air mass. Look at the source region. Think we need to wait until January. 

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nah, draw the OP out at least and you’d get a ridge bridge into AK going. wave breaks lead to weird stuff. not confident on anything like that and we probably do have to wait until Jan, but things can get interesting when you have the STJ undercutting like that

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  On 12/13/2023 at 1:03 AM, UnitedWx said:

The weather variety is awesome.  We're finally getting to visit Thailand next year.  Absolutely beautiful country, but it's always sort of hot, hot, rain and hot rain :lol: I don't know if I could live with that all the time 

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would drive me crazy.  I spent 4 years in Florida for college...yuck.

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  On 12/13/2023 at 1:42 AM, WinterWolf said:

To be honest…all this longer range stuff has been abysmal of late.  I don’t think we can put any reasonable credit into them at the moment. Tough time for modeling. 

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Got that right! Look at almost every run of the GFS op in the long range. Can't nail down anything 

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Yea it’s warm, but take up those progged surface temps with this look, Saturday and Sunday. Low 50’s make more sense across SNE away from the immediate shore.

…Heavy clouds and all, this is a furnace that’s going to take the climo corrections to the woodshed. 

Won’t see it in guidance, ever, either—we’ll just wake up to it.

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IMG_0413.png

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