December 2023

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Was he trying to get away from it? Looks like he drove into it.

Kev's cousin.

[leo2000]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The pattern right now is almost a carbon copy of Dec 1994 on the longwave look....I don't think we get out of it until late month.

I was just looking at the GEFS chart for the mjo shows it going to phase 8 just around Christmas it has sped it up. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The pattern right now is almost a carbon copy of Dec 1994 on the longwave look....I don't think we get out of it until late month.

Totally. Been thinking that for a few days now. 

[weatherwiz]

As the board has evolved and many of have been positing for 10-20+ years, lots of personal relationships have been developed and that certainly bleeds into posting style and habits. It's definitely great to have a mixture of fun and science but it seems like the fun/ribbing posts have started to outweigh great analysis/discussion the past several-plus years. Perhaps that is largely due to just not having much to discuss, but often times when great discussions start it ends up getting drowned out.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The pattern right now is almost a carbon copy of Dec 1994 on the longwave look....I don't think we get out of it until late month.

I think in my winter outlook I referenced one of my concerns was getting caught in a 1994-1995 type pattern. I thought/still think our saving grace is going to be from an Arctic which becomes more favorable...but we're probably going to need to see the PAC at least become somewhat favorable (at least to unload cold into Canada) or we really could be screwed. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

I was just looking at the GEFS chart for the mjo shows it going to phase 8 just around Christmas it has sped it up. 

Yeah, we cooled down late that month and into early January but then we had a monster MJO wave right back into phases 4/5/6 in Jan 1995 which reignited the torch until February that season.

I do think the prospects of a much better arctic region are there for this winter versus that one. So hopefully we can start cashing in on some chances pretty quickly once we go into MJO 8.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I think in my winter outlook I referenced one of my concerns was getting caught in a 1994-1995 type pattern. I thought/still think our saving grace is going to be from an Arctic which becomes more favorable...but we're probably going to need to see the PAC at least become somewhat favorable (at least to unload cold into Canada) or we really could be screwed. 

Yes, that was the underlying theme of my work. If we had a strong PV, then turn out the lights and and wait for spring training.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I understand that the polar domain may be less important than it was 50 years ago, but its still a factor.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, that was the underlying theme of my work. If we had a strong PV, then turn out the lights and and wait for spring training.

I think it was @brooklynwx99 who posted this yesterday (or maybe it was Tip) but the EQBO is really helping to keep the PV in check. I hate having to rely on SSW's but if we can somehow muster up a SSW (and on our side of the globe) that could be what helps drive things in a more favorable direction. 

If we have to wait for the MJO to progress into a more favorable phase...I'm going to start losing my confidence in a better January/February. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I think it was @brooklynwx99 who posted this yesterday (or maybe it was Tip) but the EQBO is really helping to keep the PV in check. I hate having to rely on SSW's but if we can somehow muster up a SSW (and on our side of the globe) that could be what helps drive things in a more favorable direction. 

If we have to wait for the MJO to progress into a more favorable phase...I'm going to start losing my confidence in a better January/February. 

This season will be an interesting test because in my mind, the polar domain was all that separated this season from a year like 1994 or 2006...if winter goes onto suck anyway, then yea....I would rethink some things. That said, I am not concerned at this point.....December should have been mild.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This season will be an interesting test because in my mind, the polar domain was all the separated this season from a year like 1994 or 2006...if winter goes onto suck anyway, then yea....I would rethink some things. That said, I am not concerned at this point.....December should have been mild.

Totally on the same page as you. 

There was more I wish I had the opportunity to dig into before attempting an outlook but just didn't have the time. If this winter does suck though there is definitely going to have to be some re-thinking.

I know you focus alot of your composites on ENSO event post 1950 and I've been going back to 1900 (obviously when looking at earlier years there has to be awareness about the validity and accuracy of some of the data) but just from what I've looked at with EL Nino events...there is a striking change in how EL Nino's have behaved over the past 30 years. There certainly are numerous reasons for this but too me it's pretty striking. I'm starting to work on La Nina's now so I'm curious if the same is true of La Nina. 

You made an incredible point though in your winter outlook when discussing SST's in the Pacific. The lack of a gradient within the equatorial PAC basin is pretty striking and that is going to have major impacts on pressure centers, etc.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Kev's cousin.

Funny but Ditty would prioritize his truck over a near death experience. 

[Lava Rock]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

GGEM rips the tempest right thru heart of SNE knocking down whole forests on its way NNE.

10" rain. okie dokie

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

10" rain. okie dokie

I wouldn’t discount it..Not this year/ winter. We just saw 3-6”

[Typhoon Tip]

33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The pattern right now is almost a carbon copy of Dec 1994 on the longwave look....I don't think we get out of it until late month.

I'm seeing something else going on here, though.  hmm

[Cold Miser]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

GGEM rips the tempest right thru heart of SNE knocking down whole forests on its way NNE.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

39 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m cool bro. I just despise trolls. I’m good..back to the weather. 

You’re like the Wolf of Bergentown from the animated Trolls movie. Hunting and devouring them at sight. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

11 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

10" rain. okie dokie

 At least it’s not on a weekend. 

[DavisStraight]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, we cooled down late that month and into early January but then we had a monster MJO wave right back into phases 4/5/6 in Jan 1995 which reignited the torch until February that season.

I do think the prospects of a much better arctic region are there for this winter versus that one. So hopefully we can start cashing in on some chances pretty quickly once we go into MJO 8.

I remember only one decent storm that year, I think I got a foot.

[SJonesWX]

40 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

As the board has evolved and many of have been positing for 10-20+ years, lots of personal relationships have been developed and that certainly bleeds into posting style and habits. It's definitely great to have a mixture of fun and science but it seems like the fun/ribbing posts have started to outweigh great analysis/discussion the past several-plus years. Perhaps that is largely due to just not having much to discuss, but often times when great discussions start it ends up getting drowned out.

I'm just kidding, this is a good point.

also, I have been impressed with your work here this year, it is easy to tell that not only do you have your own thoughts, you are not married to them and you continue to try to learn. good on you.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I remember only one decent storm that year, I think I got a foot.

Ya, that 94-95 winter wasn’t to good. It featured  one good one though, other than that it sucked. Hope it doesn’t turn out like that. It was sandwiched in between two historic ones though… 

[Go Kart Mozart]

What a remarkable 850 map.  A few days later the cold really pounds in, but the low leapfrogs up the coast too quickly.  Get rid of the leapfrog crap, and we might have something.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

What a remarkable 850 map.  A few days later the cold really pounds in, but the low leapfrogs up the coast too quickly.  Get rid of the leapfrog crap, and we might have something.

That’s for this Friday…I thought the system was for later than that? 

[Typhoon Tip]

heh, so far we've seen just about every plausible rendition of what that thing early next week will mean for the area without any one version repeating across successive model runs.

 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh, so far we've seen just about every plausible rendition of what that thing early next week will mean for the area without any one version repeating across successive model runs.

 

watch it just become a weak wave and rapidly weaken after doing what it does in Florida and we get nothing except thin wispy cirrus and winter's version of Bermuda blues. 

[tamarack]

41 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

10" rain. okie dokie

Farmington co-op had 10" come down on December 26-27/1969 (though it's a bit suspicious as no one else in the region had more than about 7").  Started with 15" SN then poured as temp rose to 50°.  Was also BTV's top snowfall until 2010 topped it.

Nice to see a sunny day, with modest temps.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

watch it just become a weak wave and rapidly weaken after doing what it does in Florida and we get nothing except thin wispy cirrus and winter's version of Bermuda blues. 

I’d actually be fine with that… let the SE get the rain. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

watch it just become a weak wave and rapidly weaken after doing what it does in Florida and we get nothing except thin wispy cirrus and winter's version of Bermuda blues. 

I wouldn't be surprised ...  I put it at 50/50:   minoring out vs majoring in

The problem is we have two 'unmanned firehoses' in the guidance.  The southern stream has very little continuity with details, while the N stream is occasionally dumping some phase in at irregular amounts across successive runs.

Between those two flopping hoses we are stuck in a realm of utter "misguidance"

[Brian5671]

19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s for this Friday…I thought the system was for later than that? 

I think he's highlighting the lack of ANY cold air anywhere right now

[moneypitmike]

Apparently we had snow in GC 7 years ago today.