yoda Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 4:39 PM, weathafella said: to date: BOS: 0.2 BWI: T DCA: T BOS by a landslide....lol. Expand DCA - 0.1" 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 3:32 PM, Brian5671 said: At least locally years with no Dec snow tended to have well below normal snowfall outcomes for the rest of winter. Sure there's 14-15 but that's the outlier.... Expand True, but so is last years Rat. Touché’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 CMC finally catching onto the storm for the 18/19th strong southern branch rain storm that hooks into cape cod .. However, if that northern stream were to catch up and phase man what a bomb that would be. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 4:45 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: CMC finally catching onto the storm for the 18/19th strong southern branch rain storm that hooks into cape cod .. However, if that northern stream were to catch up and phase man what a bomb that would be. Expand Unfortunately ... it's become a mise en science in here where it is almost impossible to push an idea like that and have people even read it at this point. hahaha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Another near miss epicocity on the the 23rd/24th in the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 4:54 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Unfortunately ... it's become a mise en science in here where it is almost impossible to push an idea like that and have people even read it at this point. hahaha Expand Hopefully this doesn't deter you folks from offering up analysis based on what you're seeing in each model gyration. There are plenty of people in here (maybe?) who appreciate the professional perspectives, regardless of the weather outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 3:37 PM, Allsnow said: Hopes for a big season are never high if we punt December. Expand I would never say that, at least speaking of SNE. Some of the best winters in this area didn't get started until early January. However I don't expect this to be a big snow year here either, just hopefully close to average 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 4:55 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Another near miss epicocity on the the 23rd/24th in the GFS Expand Haha that has been showing up a lot in that period. Something to possibly watch depending of course if the Canadian and Euro also has something brewing as well in that time period. The problem of course very little cold to work with unless it generates it's own cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masonwoods Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 3:37 PM, Allsnow said: Hopes for a big season are never high if we punt December. Expand The avg high temp for Metuchen NJ on Dec 1st is 50 and the avg high temp on Dec 31 is 42. When you refer to "we" do you really have an expectation for snow in Dec with that temp profile? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 5:12 PM, leo2000 said: Haha that has been showing up a lot in that period. Something to possibly watch depending of course if the Canadian and Euro also has something brewing as well in that time period. The problem of course very little cold to work with unless it generates it's own cold. Expand There’s decent cold to work with around that time on the GFS. It’s the 12/19 threat that has a putrid airmass. I’d keep an open mind for that 12/21-24 period. It’s not a cold pattern for the CONUS at all but there’s some regional cold that could make it down into the northeast/lakes if that block N of AK rolls over into the PNA ridge…it temporarily forces a much more meridional pattern. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 4:45 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: CMC finally catching onto the storm for the 18/19th strong southern branch rain storm that hooks into cape cod .. However, if that northern stream were to catch up and phase man what a bomb that would be. Expand Otherwise…rains to the Labrador Sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 5:17 PM, ORH_wxman said: There’s decent cold to work with around that time on the GFS. It’s the 12/19 threat that has a putrid airmass. I’d keep an open mind for that 12/21-24 period. It’s not a cold pattern for the CONUS at all but there’s some regional cold that could make it down into the northeast/lakes if that block N of AK rolls over into the PNA ridge…it temporarily forces a much more meridional pattern. Expand That period does look tempting. Even a weak NS clipper diving down would do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 5:17 PM, ORH_wxman said: There’s decent cold to work with around that time on the GFS. It’s the 12/19 threat that has a putrid airmass. I’d keep an open mind for that 12/21-24 period. It’s not a cold pattern for the CONUS at all but there’s some regional cold that could make it down into the northeast/lakes if that block N of AK rolls over into the PNA ridge…it temporarily forces a much more meridional pattern. Expand The 12z GEFs came in interesting. It's hard to tell, though. It may be manifesting both the 18th/19th ... and the 21st, as the same system - in other words, below is an artifact of the mean between the two. Either way, that's a new 1028 mb polar high N of Maine with a fairly impressive signal/spread lurking S. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amc Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 2:23 PM, Chrisrotary12 said: GFS says lets do this again next Monday. Whee. Expand maybe with the wind this time? Snow would be good too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 5:15 PM, masonwoods said: The avg high temp for Metuchen NJ on Dec 1st is 50 and the avg high temp on Dec 31 is 42. When you refer to "we" do you really have an expectation for snow in Dec with that temp profile? Expand And there in lies my whole problem with these guys that come in here, and then lump SNE in with their region, and then also troll the SNE folks when we talk about a system, or a period of time that may be of interest to “our” region. It takes valuable input away, and replaced it with BS trolling nonsense, that upsets and irritates the subforum. No problem if you want to come in here, but don’t detract from the conversation with constant trolling and nonstop negativity. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Here we go 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 5:15 PM, masonwoods said: The avg high temp for Metuchen NJ on Dec 1st is 50 and the avg high temp on Dec 31 is 42. When you refer to "we" do you really have an expectation for snow in Dec with that temp profile? Expand Great post. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 https://tenor.com/bfSut.gif I was hoping to not need this before February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 12:28 PM, MJO812 said: No reason to post hour 384 on any model. I think the models should just go out to 240. Expand What are you talking about? I posted the 15 day ensemble mean to counter your statement: "Long range on the gfs and Euro looks horrendous. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 DAW: 45/45 ”behind the cold front” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/8/2023 at 12:32 PM, SouthCoastMA said: I don't hate the GEFS look around the 12/20-12/22 timeframe Expand The GEFS had this period (give or take a day) as something to watch off and on since 12/8. So, we watch with expectations in check. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 4:19 PM, Layman said: That's interesting. Is there an amount threshold to determine what's considered "snow" for this? For that matter, is there a generally understood number in the industry that's recognized as a minimum amount of actual snow? I'm not sure if you're comment above implies that to people more in the know than I am with these things. I just know if it's spitting snow here and not coating grass, that's not appreciable snow. (No kidding! ) Expand I don't count it unless I have a solid coating, not some snow that accumulates in a couple of places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 6:04 PM, jbenedet said: DAW: 45/45 ”behind the cold front” Expand The ASOS looks screwed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 6:18 PM, dendrite said: The POPE is screwed up Expand Tell us something we don’t already know. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 1 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Euro is much closer now with the 18/19 storm. Just need that northern stream to phase in. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 6:46 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Euro is much closer now with the 18/19 storm. Just need that northern stream to phase in. Expand Nice dong of a low there offshore. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 6:47 PM, CoastalWx said: Nice dong of a low there offshore. Expand I’d rather a dong, than a nipple… 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 6:46 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Euro is much closer now with the 18/19 storm. Just need that northern stream to phase in. Expand Nice spot to be 150+ hrs out....at least there is something out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Antecedent airmass is junk so it would also have to cold advect too as it intenisifies. Not a lot of wiggle room. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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