December 2023

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/11/2023 at 2:23 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

GFS says lets do this again next Monday. Whee. 

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I know.  ...

I think I've entered a state of hopelessness, where any reason to challenge that is auto trashed no matter how valid.

              u-guh-ly

 

[Typhoon Tip]

06z GFS centered on 12z DEC 19 - any gullible takers ?

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/11/2023 at 2:31 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

06z GFS centered on 12z DEC 19 - any gullible takers ?

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Off hour runs…are well, just OFF.  They suck. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/11/2023 at 2:19 PM, weatherwiz said:

Don't disagree with that, just saying that you can't just look at the one product (anomalies) and assume it's warm.

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Well fortunately every product out there tells me it's warm.   

[Typhoon Tip]

Oh, I see.  Mm, maybe. 

The 06z snuck in an intermediate stream phase attempt. It's causing the surface evolution of that system early next week to elongate.   The elongation is less likely - that type of morphology just seldom occurs.  What's more likely is that the leading Miller A impulse becomes less defined in future runs ...perhaps degenerating into an open WAA swath running ahead up the coast. Then said phase arrives and a more important event evolves.  

So... it's not implausible.  But like a form of Stockholm Syndrome, it becomes increasingly more difficult to see positive outcomes as having any possibility at all.

[WinterWolf]

Love how some are already canceling out to late January….  
 

Hey why not..14-15 did exactly that. And Xmas eve in 2014 was 72 degrees. So let’s do this.  

[CoastalWx]

There is a Flutie Hail Mary Pass possible in that 19-22 window or so.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/11/2023 at 2:07 PM, ariof said:

Gotta love the model consistency one week out. At 00Z on the 19th:

GFS operational has a 987 low basically over ACK, with little cold and a storm looking like today (SN only over Vermont)

Euro has two 1000 lows, one east of JAX, one south of MSY

Canadian has a 996 low west of TPA

Goofus is the outlier here, I guess?

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OT for general purposes:  There should not be as much of an expectation for model consistency for D6-8. 

That really begins around D4.5.   It may extend to 5.5 in well behaved very stable back ground pattern scaffolding ( to which ...this is not one of those time).  It may also shrink down to 3.5 days.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/11/2023 at 2:39 PM, CoastalWx said:

There is a Flutie Hail Mary Pass possible in that 19-22 window or so.

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   ...or like a 'drive by snowball'

[WinterWolf]

I guess my point Brian is that 14-15 was horrible until the last few days of January here in SNE…and Xmas eve that year was 72-73 degrees during the day.  Looked like a Rat was imminent for sure here that year…then it changed.  We already have folks cancelling to late January, so let’s try for another 14-15. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm contributing to some of the melancholy today ... but I also mean it for commiseration creativity and fun.   

[WxWatcher007]

  On 12/11/2023 at 2:22 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Sucks that we are once again punting to January and hoping for a turnaround 

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  On 12/11/2023 at 2:37 PM, WinterWolf said:

Love how some are already canceling out to late January….  
 

Hey why not..14-15 did exactly that. And Xmas eve in 2014 was 72 degrees. So let’s do this.  

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Never expected winter here to begin in earnest until after January 15th or so. Still don’t think December is a total loss but unlike last year I don’t think it’s worth canceling winter even if it is.

The red flag for me would be seeing an extended hostile pacific pattern on long range guidance at the start of the new year. 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/11/2023 at 3:06 PM, WinterWolf said:

I guess my point Brian is that 14-15 was horrible until the last few days of January here in SNE…and Xmas eve that year was 72-73 degrees during the day.  Looked like a Rat was imminent for sure here that year…then it changed.  We already have folks cancelling to late January, so let’s try for another 14-15. 

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No argument from me re your implicit argument of "uncertainty, so it could go either way'"

I think of this year as modeling curve-ball year - as in, the model's them selves offering curve balls/tickery.

I don't suspect we will have very many periods when the models are exceptionally well behaved - and by that mean I mean ... sniffing out a pattern early and demonstrating at least a modicum stability, such that modeling individual events within that construct have an actual chance of occurring. 

- it's been abysmal so far, and has been over the last several years.  Imho, it's related to fast flow saturation but that's another headache.

[weatherwiz]

If things don't work out this winter one thing I may be upset at myself about (although not too much because digging into seasonal forecasting is only something I really started getting back into late last Fall so there was a time constraint) is not digging deeper into is how Canada. 

While we have seen some favorable patterns over the past several years at times, one thing which has always seemed to be lacking is an abundance of cold in Canada. Can't say it's been absent, even thus far, because we have had some chilly periods but the timing of the cold air has not worked out. 

But we really need to:

1) Develop a pattern which will allow for and favor cold air building into Canada 

2) Evolve the pattern to favor the cold dumping into the Northeast 

Isn't this why the EPO is important or the WPO? Doesn't the WPO do the work of building the cold into Canada and then the EPO/PNA dump the cold into the mid-West, and then AO/NAO do the work for us? (In a nutshell) 

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 12/11/2023 at 2:22 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Sucks that we are once again punting to January and hoping for a turnaround 

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It does suck... Not gonna lie. We are all.o. Here for the same reason. We would love to see a classic, long lived, snow filled Winter. Unfortunately climo and just the changes in our worldwide weather decreases this chance. 

With that said, I see nothing wrong with being optimistic. The problem I have here is there are some that are truly pessimists and That's just how the cookie crumbles ( but if you notice, they're still posting. So if they really didn't care or really didn't want to see something change, they wouldn't post it all, even their negative posts ).

So, I'm always going to stay optimistic. As we all know, things cannon will change two weeks out from now. There's always been things that can sneak up on us and surprise us in a good way. Those are the things that can turn everyone's emotions around and having us all come together and excited about the possibilities of something major. Time will tell!

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/11/2023 at 3:14 PM, weatherwiz said:

If things don't work out this winter one thing I may be upset at myself about (although not too much because digging into seasonal forecasting is only something I really started getting back into late last Fall so there was a time constraint) is not digging deeper into is how Canada. 

While we have seen some favorable patterns over the past several years at times, one thing which has always seemed to be lacking is an abundance of cold in Canada. Can't say it's been absent, even thus far, because we have had some chilly periods but the timing of the cold air has not worked out. 

But we really need to:

1) Develop a pattern which will allow for and favor cold air building into Canada 

2) Evolve the pattern to favor the cold dumping into the Northeast 

Isn't this why the EPO is important or the WPO? Doesn't the WPO do the work of building the cold into Canada and then the EPO/PNA dump the cold into the mid-West, and then AO/NAO do the work for us? (In a nutshell) 

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Can't say I disagree with that bold sentiment/recollection ...

You may not recall, but I have opined at times over the last decade (really) that it seems more and more so, we disrupt cryo chances when we do not have a direct feed of cold while it is happening. 

It's seems (anecdotally) we can't be as reliant on those 'rotted polar air masses' but still on the slightly cooler side of marginal characteristic. That envelope of circumstances have been fleeting and getting rarer.  I noticed that in 2015, all those snowy events in that historic February where happening when it was tooth-ache cold.

What your expressing there might be related to the same observation?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 12/11/2023 at 2:28 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

"punting to Jan" isn't really a good term for it. coastal SNE and south don't really do much in December. punting to Feb, on the other hand? that's an issue. don't expect that as of now, though

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@The 4 Seasons was looking over some data and a rough look at it showed that no snow through January 1 is rare. Twice in the past 25 years at the CT shore.. Probably even more rare in the hills of southern CT and interior SNE in general . 

[Brian5671]

  On 12/11/2023 at 3:27 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

@The 4 Seasons was looking over some data and a rough look at it showed that no snow through January 1 is rare. Twice in the past 25 years at the CT shore.. Probably even more rare in the hills of southern CT and interior SNE in general . 

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At least locally years with no Dec snow tended to have well below normal snowfall outcomes for the rest of winter.  Sure there's 14-15 but that's the outlier....

[NorEastermass128]

  On 3/4/2023 at 5:57 PM, NorEastermass128 said:

0.5” new

15.5” on the season 

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Is there a 2023-2024 New England Snow thread yet?

0.5” new (from 12/6)

0.5” on the season

[Typhoon Tip]

'Whoa is us' humor aside -

I still see a narrow window where the telecon spread's in support of something.  The system early next week is that period of time. 

It's led by a subtle depression in the EPO projection. The problem is timing ( ironically, 'Wiz was just mentioning that ).  That cold plume that mooshes SE from N of the Great Lakes as the Miller A is leaving the area ( i.e., just too late) in fact has it's source-origin off the EPO load.  Not sure if we can speed that up.  Or, slow down the Miller A transit enough. 

But all that, and a PNA attempting to flip positive ( not massively so - ) do provide a setting, so at least having a system over the mid latitudes/eastern continent isn't a terrible fit.  I've already discussed this - it's really more about it all still being there, but this is detailing what needs to improve for any of that to have a chance (based upon my Monday morning QBing)

[weatherwiz]

  On 12/11/2023 at 3:25 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Can't say I disagree with that bold sentiment/recollection ...

You may not recall, but I have opined at times over the last decade (really) that it seems more and more so, we disrupt cryo chances when we do not have a direct feed of cold while it is happening. 

It's seems (anecdotally) we can't be as reliant on those 'rotted polar air masses' but still on the slightly cooler side of marginal characteristic. That envelope of circumstances have been fleeting and getting rarer.  I noticed that in 2015, all those snowy events in that historic February where happening when it was tooth-ache cold.

What your expressing there might be related to the same observation?

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Yes, I think the two can certainly be related. I do recall you making such mentions in the past. It seems to be becoming more true in the times of a warming climate as well. When we don't have the cold air readily available, we have to rely on so many factors to get things to work out. Majority of our colder air and periods (and this has been happening for a while) are occurring on the backside of systems and post storm. But once we lose the influence of the backside of systems, what happens...we're just flooded with milder air again. We first need to get some sustained and established cold source. We do that and the game becomes much easier.

[Allsnow]

  On 12/11/2023 at 3:32 PM, Brian5671 said:

At least locally years with no Dec snow tended to have well below normal snowfall outcomes for the rest of winter.  Sure there's 14-15 but that's the outlier....

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Hopes for a big season are never high if we punt December. 

[Brian5671]

  On 12/11/2023 at 3:37 PM, Allsnow said:

Hopes for a big season are never high if we punt December. 

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Yep 2017-18 and 2020-21 were our last decent years and both had December storms...

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/11/2023 at 3:37 PM, Allsnow said:

Hopes for a big season are never high if we punt December. 

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Can you imagine if was 70 F every day in winter except for precisely two days. On on Jan 15 and one on Feb 15, each having 40" of snow fall. 

...how do we manufacture our impressions ?   lol

[Allsnow]

  On 12/11/2023 at 3:43 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Can you imagine if was 70 F every day in winter except for precisely two days. On on Jan 15 and one on Feb 15, each having 40" of snow fall. 

...how do we manufacture our impressions ?   lol

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I would say 2016 is that you? 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

More snow in DC than eastern ma so far. Pain 

[Layman]

  On 12/11/2023 at 3:27 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

@The 4 Seasons was looking over some data and a rough look at it showed that no snow through January 1 is rare. Twice in the past 25 years at the CT shore.. Probably even more rare in the hills of southern CT and interior SNE in general . 

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That's interesting.  Is there an amount threshold to determine what's considered "snow" for this?  For that matter, is there a generally understood number in the industry that's recognized as a minimum amount of actual snow?  I'm not sure if you're comment above implies that to people more in the know than I am with these things.  I just know if it's spitting snow here and not coating grass, that's not appreciable snow. (No kidding! )

[J Paul Gordon]

  On 12/11/2023 at 2:31 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

06z GFS centered on 12z DEC 19 - any gullible takers ?

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Me. I'll take it. Smack in the middle of some of the best snow.

[weathafella]

  On 12/11/2023 at 4:08 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

More snow in DC than eastern ma so far. Pain 

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to date:

 

BOS:  0.2

BWI:   T

DCA:  T

 

BOS by a landslide....lol.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 12/11/2023 at 4:19 PM, Layman said:

That's interesting.  Is there an amount threshold to determine what's considered "snow" for this?  For that matter, is there a generally understood number in the industry that's recognized as a minimum amount of actual snow?  I'm not sure if you're comment above implies that to people more in the know than I am with these things.  I just know if it's spitting snow here and not coating grass, that's not appreciable snow. (No kidding! )

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I'd assume he looked at any accumulating snowfall .1" or greater.