December 2023

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Merry Christmas to all.

 

[CoastalWx]

55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The crap pattern will change....maybe Xmas will be 50 degrees and maybe it will take longer than many of us had thought...maybe it won't. But keep in mind that periods of flux will often feature marked volatility in the extended range on guidance, so try to take a step back and wait. Look how everyone was spiking footballs for a time about December prospects when we were transitioning from the cold November regime to this. Even @raindancewxisn't calling for a blow torch of a winter, as his NE snow defecit is more tied to a flukey seasonal precip hole based on -PDO analogs, which is far more precarious and correctable than a 1997-1998 redux.

Just enjoy the holidays, play in puddles and go with the flow.

December with nothing to track is up there with the worst months of the year. Just dark and miserable. Nothing like forsythia blooming with Christmas lights.

[CoastalWx]

GEFS still look the best near Christmas and after. That’s workable especially inland. 

[leo2000]

I am going to need a big bottle of Jack Daniel's to get through another December like this. Seems like a gruesome ugly cycle to have this same old ugly pacific pattern everytime right before the holidays. We have been going through this for 5 years now. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

I am going to need a big bottle of Jack Daniel's to get through another December like this. Seems like a gruesome ugly cycle to have this same old ugly pacific pattern everytime right before the holidays. We have been going through this for 5 years now. 

Different look, but yeah similar results.

[Snowcrazed71]

31 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Merry Christmas to all.

 

Yeah.. may or may not happen. Still looking forward to the holidays with ot without Snow. Life is good! ( plus.. I had a nice heaping spoonful of winter up in Quebec city this past week ). It will Snow at some point. You keep posting your Rainstorms and enjoy them while they last. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

I am going to need a big bottle of Jack Daniel's to get through another December like this. Seems like a gruesome ugly cycle to have this same old ugly pacific pattern everytime right before the holidays. We have been going through this for 5 years now. 

Only one?

[SnoSki14]

Euro says break out the shades and shorts 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

"those forecast" in deference to the above are a mean of all the ensemble members.  They literally take the average of all the ensemble members.

Each member has slightly differing physical equations, but they are not 'guess work'?   I'm not sure precisely what you mean by "empirically derived equations" but ... the physical equations built into each do not produce impossible solutions. They wouldn't be of much use if that were the case. 

Each focuses in a specific aspect of atmospheric physics. There's probably documentation on each member's "genetics" ( if you will). Ho man - can you imagine the Asperger spectrum required to read that?   Like Member 6 uses some experimental convective sequencing - now ... go and match all those days whence ever those were valid, and if those valid days match the circumstance at hand... weeee. 

Popsicle headache. 

Meanwhile member 7 ... some other variant, and on and so on. This stuff actually matters, because the thing about cloud creation (efficiency/proficiency:  That releases latent heat during the pseudo adiabatic machinery of the storm, which if done by X physics may or may not be more correct than if done so by way X', or Y or whatever. 

The operational version's just employ what's worked the best in the past, through objective comparison with reality through experimentation. 

I may be butchering some of this but in principle that's the gist. 

Having said all that, the individual ensemble physical implementations don't change ( unless a wholesale new version is rolled out). They're just process out into the future based on whatever is given them. Which is the initialization provided by sounding/satellite

I know the general nature of ensemble modeling, petroleum reservoir engineering involves mass balances and radial diffusivity and multiple phase fluid flow in heterogeneous and anisotropic materials.  Seismic modeling gives general depths and shapes of underground reservoirs, the rest is data gathered from individual oil wells, and even as just an undergrad, models  in the 80s ran what was called 'Monte Carlo' variation of data, because engineers have so little data they actually know, they must run the models with varying inputs, assign probabilities to changes from the best guess, and finding a mean and range of likely outcomes.  The solution of the radial diffusivity equation is so complex simplifying assumptions are made and transforms are used.  I still loathe my 'systems of linear differential equations' class at UT.  I remember being tormented trying to convert things in LaPlace space back.  Back in the day, oil companies had the most expensive super-computers.

 

What I meant by empirical, a French sewage engineer named D'Arcy did experiments and came up with an equation for fluid flow as a function of differential pressure, size, length of porous media and viscosity of the fluid from that data.  Darcy's Law, the key to aquifer and petroleum engineering, was not based purely on physics.  I assume in weather many things are based purely on physics, I wondered if somethings were best fit data derived from experiments and observation.  I think the below answers that (empirical formulas are used), or changes in the base state, warmer oceans seems like the most significant, will affect model performance.

Quote

The operational version's just employ what's worked the best in the past, through objective comparison with reality through experimentation. 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS still look the best near Christmas and after. That’s workable especially inland. 

The pattern is definitely going to change, but it still doesn’t look very good for SNE overall.

We are probably looking well into January here if and when a favorable pattern materializes for SNE, because it certainly isn’t happening before the new year on the majority of guidance 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The pattern is definitely going to change, but it still doesn’t look very good for SNE overall.

We are probably looking well into January here if and when a favorable pattern materializes for SNE, because it certainly isn’t happening before the new year on the majority of guidance 

I think it does change before that especially inland. Might take a little longer for you and I. 

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The pattern is definitely going to change, but it still doesn’t look very good for SNE overall.

We are probably looking well into January here if and when a favorable pattern materializes for SNE, because it certainly isn’t happening before the new year on the majority of guidance 

Have to remember too…ya don’t need a fabulous pattern to get some good storms/snow during good climo Brett.  I think alot of us/folks sometimes forget his. 

[Lava Rock]

Euro says break out the shades and shorts 

That's what it said for Tday

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[kdxken]

2 hours ago, cut said:

That looks like Laurel View in Hamden - hidden gem

Connecticut National.  39 on the front and 23 on the back with three holes to go. And  the heavens let loose. Would have been my best round of the year by far. Effing rain...

 

[NorEastermass128]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think it does change before that especially inland. Might take a little longer for you and I. 

My favorite wintertime phrase. 

[forkyfork]

just give up on ever hoping for a white christmas again if you don't live in the NNE mountains 

[MJO812]

Onto January 

 

[cut]

57 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Connecticut National.  39 on the front and 23 on the back with three holes to go. And  the heavens let loose. Would have been my best round of the year by far. Effing rain...

 

Dang - that is a nice score card. I'll have to check out that course. If you are ever down near New Haven check out The Vue (formerly Laurel View - which got obliterated by a tornado 4 or 5 years ago). I'm in Trumbull and we have a beauty in Nashua Knolls as well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I think it does change before that especially inland. Might take a little longer for you and I. 

Agree.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree.

There’s a risk we lose the rest of December if that vortex near Bering doesn’t retrograde…some of the guidance just sinks it a bit south but it’s not really good enough. 
 

But OTOH, why should we believe that when this stuff has been changing so quickly. Could look completely different in a day or two. 
 

I think part of the recent solutions is I noticed most models stall the MJO in phase 7 for like 7-10 days. It rips through phase 5/6 by 12/14 and then it just….stops. Previous runs moved it into phase 8 by 12/19-12/20. If that part isn’t totally accurate, then we’re going to get more changes. 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 hours ago, leo2000 said:

I am going to need a big bottle of Jack Daniel's to get through another December like this. Seems like a gruesome ugly cycle to have this same old ugly pacific pattern everytime right before the holidays. We have been going through this for 5 years now. 

Leo has the best avatar (sub-avatar?) on the forum.

[Go Kart Mozart]

44 minutes ago, cut said:

Nashua Knolls

A quick edit, cut!

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s a risk we lose the rest of December if that vortex near Bering doesn’t retrograde…some of the guidance just sinks it a bit south but it’s not really good enough. 
 

But OTOH, why should we believe that when this stuff has been changing so quickly. Could look completely different in a day or two. 
 

I think part of the recent solutions is I noticed most models stall the MJO in phase 7 for like 7-10 days. It rips through phase 5/6 by 12/14 and then it just….stops. Previous runs moved it into phase 8 by 12/19-12/20. If that part isn’t totally accurate, then we’re going to get more changes. 

 

December could be a wash.....that is possible. I will admit it to getting sucked in a bit for the holiday period, but would I be suprised or would it cause me to reconsider anything if it takes until after NY?

Nope.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

My favorite wintertime phrase. 

I mean, even 2003 started that way....its not a big deal.....1987, too.

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December could be a wash.....that is possible. I will admit it to getting sucked in a bit for the holiday period, but would I be suprised or would it cause me to reconsider anything if it takes until after NY?

Nope.

What was your December outlook?

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 11/20/2023 at 8:21 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like some cold to start before a flip to mild for a couple of weeks, followed by a colder and stormier look towards the holidays. This excerpt is from last week's write up, but nothing has really changed.

 

Intensifying PV for the duration of November and into December before beginning to weaken in the general vicinity of the holidays through the new year.

 

This overall progression is generally consistent with the Eastern Mass Weather forecast H5 composite for the month of December.

 

December Forecast H5 Composite:

1951-2010:

 

 

 

 

 

1991-2020: 

What is very apparent is the consistency with the early season canonical El Niño appeal, which is not at all uncommon, but makes a White Christmas along the Atlantic coastal plane from Massachusetts points south fairly dubious. However, analog data implies that there is a window for a significant winter storm between Christmas and the New Year. The interior should be the focus, but that does not necessarily preclude the coastal plane from experiencing an early season snowfall.

 

 

And this reality is conveyed quite vividly by the December forecast temperature composite.

December 2023 Forecast Temps:

1951-2010:

 

The month should finish 1-3 degrees F above average across the Mid Atlantic and New England.

1991-2020:

 

While the month should finish mild in the mean, it will be fairly active and should not be completely void of winter weather for the NE coastal plane, as there should be transient spasmodic PNA flexes. In fact, snowfall may very well be above average for the month across the deep interior and northern New England, where ski resorts should benefit from a blend of coastal storms and southwest flow events.

 

December 2023 Forecast Precip Anomalies:

 

1951-2010:

 

 

 

 

 

1991-2020:

 

 

 

There will be undoubtedly a great deal of unrest from the contingent of self-proclaimed weather experts on social media who remain traumatized from what seems like a mult-decadal run of cool ENSO events. And while some of that residual lea Nina like atmospheric momentum will undoubtedly remain, rest assured that the wheels of change will be in motion by the new year. El Niño will continue its westward progression at the surface towards being better colocated with the central Pacific forcing as the polar stratosphere concurrently begins to warm. 

 

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

What was your December outlook?

 

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December could be a wash.....that is possible. I will admit it to getting sucked in a bit for the holiday period, but would I be suprised or would it cause me to reconsider anything if it takes until after NY?

Nope.

Yeah I’d mostly agree since even the turd spinning in the bowl in phase 7 for over a weak is going to eventually move down into phase 8/1 even if it’s weak by the time it gets there…but that’s still good. I don’t think we want a strong MJO wave anyway. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I’d mostly agree since even the turd spinning in the bowl in phase 7 for over a weak is going to eventually move down into phase 8/1 even if it’s weak by the time it gets there…but that’s still good. I don’t think we want a strong MJO wave anyway. 

Nope. Don't need the MJO, aside from maybe helping to trigger the initial change...I am content to handing the reigns over to the basin wide el Nino for later in Januart through February. 

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1733962292184699226?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Lava Rock]

0 51"

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