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December 2023


40/70 Benchmark
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  On 12/9/2023 at 10:50 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

This is going to be wild . With no vegetation to soak up water.. gonna be some problems in places that flood, water in basements .. etc . CT River will go well above banks 

1nN4ZtI.jpg

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Would’ve been nice to get some high wind with that like eastern Maine. Uproot all of the trees. 

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  On 12/9/2023 at 10:50 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

This is going to be wild . With no vegetation to soak up water.. gonna be some problems in places that flood, water in basements .. etc . CT River will go well above banks 

1nN4ZtI.jpg

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The CT River watershed laughs at 2”-3” rain storms.  Flooding issues will be minimal in the CTRV.  

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  On 12/10/2023 at 12:38 AM, jbenedet said:

Nah. It’s a background feature due to recurring split flow out west; even when it’s subtle it’s important but easy to overlook.
 

 

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Well, moderately strong Maritime forcing also favors +NAO. Watch the +NAO go bye-bye in a few weeks.

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  On 12/10/2023 at 12:49 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, moderately strong Maritime forcing also favors +NAO. Watch the +NAO go bye-bye in a few weeks.

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Who is this JBenedet ( is he the one people call the pope? ). Anyway, should we take what he is saying with a grain of Salt or not? Not sure how to take him?

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  On 12/10/2023 at 2:58 AM, NorEastermass128 said:

Can’t wait to get to Tuesday so this rain/windstorm is behind us. Period after 12/20 still holding any promise?

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This.

I have zero interest in this....but all we will hear about until Monday night. I get it, its weather, blah, blah.....but nothing compelling about it IMBY.

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  On 12/10/2023 at 12:17 PM, CoastalWx said:

Nice little event 6 years ago yesterday when it used to snow in December.

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Had about 6-7” in that one. That basically started continuous snow cover here that winter until the mid-January thaw and cutter.
 

Our best shot is prob 12/20-25 if we can get some of those more meridional solutions…guidance has been pretty wishy-washy on whether we torch or actually stay on the chillier side during that period. 

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  On 12/10/2023 at 12:49 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Had about 6-7” in that one. That basically started continuous snow cover here that winter until the mid-January thaw and cutter.
 

Our best shot is prob 12/20-25 if we can get some of those more meridional solutions…guidance has been pretty wishy-washy on whether we torch or actually stay on the chillier side during that period. 

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I hope. If nothing else, Ray will put on a good show for us. 

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  On 12/10/2023 at 1:54 PM, qg_omega said:

image.thumb.png.a964cdd866a5e500639602ac807d97ea.png

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Unfortunately ( well ... not for you :) but for the winter enthusiasts), the numerical teleconnection spread shuts down cold loading into North America, ~ after the 20th.  This is also in conflict with the erstwhile consensus for wintry turn at the end of the month, interestingly. 

I've been keeping track ...about 3 or 4 days ago, the WPO projection flipped sign. As of last night, all the way up to +2SD.  And then out around the 20th or so, the EPO goes positive mode.  There is a lag correlation between the two, where preferentially ... the EPO will eventually modulate in favor of the WPO's sign - given time.  So the EPO rising isn't a surprise considering -  

What all this means is, that giant Chinook generator pattern is not a terrible fit for the strengthening +WPO/+EPO.  

None of this hugely confident.  Even relative to climo/modeling climo that is so. We've been observing wholesale hemispheric modulations that are unusual - considering the mass of the whole thing?  Definitely either an artifact of modeling (somehow) or something weird is happening...  where pattern identity become mere simulacrums that disperse like farts in the wind, and we're looking at something else entirely about ever 3 days.  So I'm not completely sold that the above Pacific scaffolding is going to become history.  

 

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