December 2023

[Damage In Tolland]

Ray’s weeklies delay winter now until after the New Year . Tossed 

[Akeem the African Dream]

 

[powderfreak]

Reggie is a big hit too at 18z.

3km NAM looks like it would be massive too, so much QPF riding up the front.

[wokeupthisam]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ray’s weeklies delay winter now until after the New Year . Tossed 

The weeklies, or the winter?  

[qg_omega]

No signs of any pattern change as we head into Jan

[CoastalWx]

18z gfs went flaccid 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

At least up here...

 

November is a greater snow producing month than April.

December is a greater snow producing month than March.

 

Kind of a big deal if you are striking and fouling through Jan 1. Just probability. You know, mathssss....

 

I think recent years have us biased into believing we can easily make up lost ground with one MECS+ storm. Those odds are not worth banking on. 

Here November and April are much the same, except for biggest storms.  December averages more than March but March has more big storms,
even though Dec's top 3 are above anything in March.

November                      April
Avg:  4.6"                       Avg: 4.8"

1. 13.0", 26-27/2014      1.  18.5", 4-5/2007
2.  9.7", 23/2011            2.  15.1", 1-2/2011
3.  7.1", 27-28/2018       3.  11.2", 12-13/2007
4.  7.0", 17-18/2002      4.    8.5", 9-10/2020
5.  6.0", 13/2018            5.   5.2", 15-17/2007 (with ~5" RA as well)

December                      March
Avg:  18.9"                      Avg:  16.9"

1.   24.0", 6-7/2003       1.   19.9", 7-9/2018
2.  22.0", 16-18/2022    2.  19.0", 30-31/2001
3.  21.0", 29-30/2016    3.  16.5", 13-14/2018
4.  15.5", 21-22/2008    4.  16.0", 22-23/2001
5.  13.2", 14-15/2003    5.  15.5", 14-15/2017
Next: 12.4" this week    Next:  14.5",14.0", 13.5", 13.3"
10 events 10"+               14 events 10"+ (in one less year)

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z gfs went flaccid 

Pushed east and weaker 

I had a sore tooth this am and and some DR in Nashua  waved a fish bone In front of it to cure it , reminded me of euro weeklies 

[Lava Rock]

Awful

This doesn't mean it's going to torch. Above avg could be 1F higher than usual right? If so, that's ok with me. If we're taking 10-20f above avg, then that won't be favorable

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Pushed east and weaker 

I had a sore tooth this am and and some DR in Nashua  waved a fish bone In front of it to cure it , reminded me of euro weeklies 

Just brings snows further SE on the sting 

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z gfs went flaccid 

Booo.  That makes sense in the larger trend though.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

This doesn't mean it's going to torch. Above avg could be 1F higher than usual right? If so, that's ok with me. If we're taking 10-20f above avg, then that won't be favorable

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

I usually see the darker the red lead to bigger anomalies  , but I mean this is still out there in time where it can change a good amount and be near normal or normal 

[Lava Rock]

I usually see the darker the red lead to bigger anomalies  , but I mean this is still out there in time where it can change a good amount and be near normal or normal 

Thanks. I wasn't sure how they interpret "above avg"

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[alex]

Our forecast for this storm has 2” of rain and 2” of snow. Seems equitable

[Sey-Mour Snow]

18z gfs much colder for the day 9 storm..  still rain for most but 1-2' of heavy wet snow for the deep interior.. wouldn't it be funny if we pull off a heavy wet snowstorm in the middle of our torch and unfavorable period.. 

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

18z gfs much colder for the day 9 storm..  still rain for most but 1-2' of heavy wet snow for the deep interior.. wouldn't it be funny if we pull off a heavy wet snowstorm in the middle of our torch and unfavorable period.. 

I'm starting a thread for that one ..

- most likely later this evening or tomorrow morning.  I've been discussing the burgeoning PNA signal since two days ago ...  We're emerging a system into a background numerical correlation.  Those 'usually' come down to details when that's the case.  Too early for such specifics, of course, but early heads for what (imho ) is maturing into a valid signal has been sufficiently met with success in the past and this is one of those -.

[NorEastermass128]

20 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

18z gfs much colder for the day 9 storm..  still rain for most but 1-2' of heavy wet snow for the deep interior.. wouldn't it be funny if we pull off a heavy wet snowstorm in the middle of our torch and unfavorable period.. 

We’re beyond due for a stroke of luck. 

[CT Rain]

57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z gfs went flaccid 

Yup. Meh. 

[Damage In Tolland]

49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm starting a thread for that one ..

- most likely later this evening or tomorrow morning.  I've been discussing the burgeoning PNA signal since two days ago ...  We're emerging a system into a background numerical correlation.  Those 'usually' come down to details when that's the case.  Too early for such specifics, of course, but early heads for what (imho ) is maturing into a valid signal has been sufficiently met with success in the past and this is one of those -.

For a rainer ? Recommendation is do not.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

For a rainer ? Recommendation is do not.

I think there’s room for that one to trend cold enough for snow. 18z GFs nearly pulled it off here…further interior got croaked that run. 

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think there’s room for that one to trend cold enough for snow. 18z GFs nearly pulled it off here…further interior got croaked that run. 

Dec 92’?

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dec 92’?

It would likely be that type of airmass if we got enough cold in place. But no way you’d expect a storm of that magnitude at this time range. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z NAM went east again....gets western SNE into accumulating snow.

@RUNNAWAYICEBERGdoing naked snow angels while me and Ray get rained on?

I’m not buying these snowy solutions but any snow is welcomed. But the clothes will continue to stay on until the elusive one finally comes. The 20”+ that has evaded me since 2011. Time is ticking…

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It would likely be that type of airmass if we got enough cold in place. But no way you’d expect a storm of that magnitude at this time range. 

Tippy does it seems?

[weatherwiz]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

18z gfs went flaccid 

AIT

[Go Kart Mozart]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z NAM went east again....gets western SNE into accumulating snow.

@RUNNAWAYICEBERGdoing naked snow angels while me and Ray get rained on?

For me?  That NAM solution is about as likely as a 400lb escaped Sterling CT sow flying out of my ass (ginny will know what that means).

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

For me?  That NAM solution is about as likely as a 400lb escaped Sterling CT sow flying out of my ass (ginny will know what that means).

Painful 

[kdxken]

Tower Hill botanical gardens. Looks like Christmas.

[brooklynwx99]

4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

No signs of any pattern change as we head into Jan

pattern changes up after Christmas, most likely

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

pattern changes up after Christmas, most likely

He’s trolling, but there are hints that it may not be very exciting of a change. Maybe just good enough for someone, NNE favored