CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Love the all rain coastal track on the GFS. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Love the all rain coastal track on the GFS. LOL. Pain. Been a lot of those types of systems in recent years. Just no cold air to be found anywhere in NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Pain. Been a lot of those types of systems in recent years. Just no cold air to be found anywhere in NE It's a rare look though. We had one in 1994. All rain to Stowe in that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 56 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Thread time for the only game in town Agree. Someone start it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Pain. Been a lot of those types of systems in recent years. Just no cold air to be found anywhere in NE No worries. It’ll make its own cold air. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Pain. Been a lot of those types of systems in recent years. Just no cold air to be found anywhere in NE Careful, the wolf lurks… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 It's marginal though... 1 In my experience over the many years of modeling, marginality in runs routinely favors the warm side beyond D5 in guidance... We're out there around D11/12 with that thing so...it's probably all moot for now. In the old days ...through the 1990s early 2000s, most 'blue bombs' actually spent time as cold/CCB head rains when in the outer/ext range. 2 In recent years ... I've noticed a subtle difference in actual marginal scenarios - those that are inside of D4 or in modeling, so presumed reasonably accurate. Marginal actually has begun to favor warmth - I call that the 'flip direction' When we have been right on the fence in guidance that has a pallet of p-typs through an isothermal sounding at 0 C ... we've lost our latitude magic. Yes, it's a subtlety I believe may be connected with CC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's a rare look though. We had one in 1994. All rain to Stowe in that one. This forum will detonate if there’s an all-rain coastal storm within a week of Xmas . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This forum will detonate if there’s an all-rain coastal storm within a week of Xmas . Last year was king for that, cold/dry warm/wet dominated....The whole second half of that GFS run reminded me of a late March/April pattern. Who knows, I just assume at this point if something is marginal, money is on rain, even in the core of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 I would definitely watch that 18th -21st period of time. I don't suspect that's merely an artifact of noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This forum will detonate if there’s an all-rain coastal storm within a week of Xmas . At least you guys are making the best of it at your locale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Careful, the wolf lurks… Nothing against Brett personally, it’s just that he’s been overachieving there for a decade…yet he thinks he’s been in a snow hole for a decade. The guy is misled. Like with that post…he says there’s been a lot of those looks of late, and Scott comes in and corrects him and says…no, it’s pretty rare. Lol. Ya got Forky posting 384 hr ensemble maps, and pimping the warmth..??? I mean does it get any more obvious that these folks are just jabbing and trolling for real…. Sad. We can’t trust 6-7 day ensembles, but we’re gonna throw out 16 day ones, and troll folks. pathetic. Let em go…who cares what these trolls think from Jersey and NYC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: At least you guys are making the best of it at your locale. At 4,000 feet in far NW mountains it’s not hard to snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: At 4,000 feet in far NW mountains it’s not hard to snow Somewhere in there is a lesson to be learned 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: At least you guys are making the best of it at your locale. No complaints at all up this way. It’s only December 8 and we’ve had several fun events from a weather/snow perspective. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: Somewhere in there is a lesson to be learned I also was not assuming 4K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 You can basically summarize like this… if the much anticipated and widely forecast in many circles pattern change to more favorable with snow chances and sufficient cold beginning Xmas week and for Jan and Feb is delayed or pushed back or doesn’t happen or whatever , this place is going to lose it. That includes snowless SNE all the way up to NNE where much of area outside the Mtns sees the giant snow eraser Sunday night. There are a ton of posters( myself included) that are hoping and counting on it . Folks are already posting on eggshells. It had better happen or all hell will break loose. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You can basically summarize like this… if the much anticipated and widely forecast in many circles pattern change to more favorable with snow chances and sufficient cold beginning Xmas week and for Jan and Feb is delayed or pushed back or doesn’t happen or whatever , this place is going to lose it. That includes snowless SNE all the way up to NNE where much of area outside the Mtns sees the giant snow eraser Sunday night. There are a ton of posters( myself included) that are hoping and counting on it . Folks are already posting on eggshells. It had better happen or all hell will break loose. yeah, same thing happened in January 2015. idk if anything of note happened that winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Looking a lot like 2015 to date. Especially given the likely outcome of the big warmup starting today and then inland runner this weekend. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You can basically summarize like this… if the much anticipated and widely forecast in many circles pattern change to more favorable with snow chances and sufficient cold beginning Xmas week and for Jan and Feb is delayed or pushed back or doesn’t happen or whatever , this place is going to lose it. That includes snowless SNE all the way up to NNE where much of area outside the Mtns sees the giant snow eraser Sunday night. There are a ton of posters( myself included) that are hoping and counting on it . Folks are already posting on eggshells. It had better happen or all hell will break loose. beer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, same thing happened in January 2015. idk if anything of note happened that winter It also happened last year, and that was historic as well. I don’t believe anybody should be panicking right now. Not sure why there’s so much apprehension at this point if folks are just looking at this season. For now I’m just proceeding with caution on the evolution this month, which I do think is important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 41 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This forum will detonate if there’s an all-rain coastal storm within a week of Xmas . I think the fuse is already lit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: I think the fuse is already lit. Kevin teetering 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Kevin teetering An early melt in store, Already laying the groundwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 38 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nothing against Brett personally, it’s just that he’s been overachieving there for a decade…yet he thinks he’s been in a snow hole for a decade. The guy is misled. Like with that post…he says there’s been a lot of those looks of late, and Scott comes in and corrects him and says…no, it’s pretty rare. Lol. Ya got Forky posting 384 hr ensemble maps, and pimping the warmth..??? I mean does it get any more obvious that these folks are just jabbing and trolling for real…. Sad. We can’t trust 6-7 day ensembles, but we’re gonna throw out 16 day ones, and troll folks. pathetic. Let em go…who cares what these trolls think from Jersey and NYC. It’s rare in a sense that it gets Stowe as rain. Over the last few years we’ve had plenty of great tracks in the heart of winter that have produced rain for many folks. Im not debating the last decade on the whole has been pretty good. However, the reality is, outside of a mega blizzard in Jan 22, there hasn’t really been a ton of snow here over the last 3-4 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Kevin teetering Almost time to roll the windows down on the explorer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Kevin teetering There’s a bunch of posters like me, you, Will, Ray, Wolf , Dryslot etc that are on the edge. Folks just deal with it in different ways. For now patience.. if we are having this conversation Dec 23.. pain 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s rare in a sense that it gets Stowe as rain. Over the last few years we’ve had plenty of great tracks in the heart of winter that have produced rain for many folks. Im not debating the last decade on the whole has been pretty good. However, the reality is, outside of a mega blizzard in Jan 22, there hasn’t really been a ton of snow here over the last 3-4 years This recent stretch is good for you my friend…it will teach you to appreciate the big winters. I was “lucky” enough to have the worst 4 year stretch in recorded history at ORH in my childhood so I was exposed to huge failure early on which really made those big winters feel a lot more special. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Why is climo such a tough concept to grasp and understand? 3 2 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: Why is climo such a tough concept to grasp and understand? If you keep things in perspective, Its really not, But its the expectations of some that think there's is better suited early on then it really is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now