December 2023

[powderfreak]

Here we go.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

This is an important ( fascinating if your a nerd like me ) aspect above ( bold).   If true, it's a part of my faster hemisphere hypothesis - which has been recently corroborated by ...

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01884-1#citeas

..Anyway, it's "possible" that what you're describing may be a emergence of error forcing that was not as prevalent during the 'growth spurt' era of modeling technology in the 1970s-2000.  The idea being that we engineer tools that suffice the observations of our environment - which these tools may not be designed to account for a fast atmosphere sending along balloons that sample the "wrong" region of the troughs and ridges.   That's really cool!

Modeling isn't my strong suit at all, so I don't know how they handle this aspect. But if you pull up any upper air map to hand analyze, they are plotted as if they are over the launch site. 

However we get winds from GPS calculations, so we know where the balloon has been at all times. It is possible they use the lat/lon pair when ingesting it, I just don't know for sure.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Here we go.

Just looking at the CT River, and it could rip for a couple hours there even, let alone VT.

Nice lapse rates in the DGZ with lift still going. Could be an hour or two of snow, but could also be 2-4". 

[dryslot]

Ripping in RKD.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Just looking at the CT River, and it could rip for a couple hours there even, let alone VT.

Nice lapse rates in the DGZ with lift still going. Could be an hour or two of snow, but could also be 2-4". 

Upper levels showed that coming… phase was later but still got there.

500mb and 700mb looked good here.  Snow maps agree.

[dryslot]

A few more tics and Western Maine will be in the game for snow if the Nam is to be believed.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Welp, 12z NAM still insisting on a large area of 925 winds > 90 kt. 

6z GFS pretty wild at BOS on BUFKIT

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z Nam, Trough a few tics east of the 06z run.

That's an impressive shift for present modeling standards in the Global s

...not so sure about the NAM's bi-polar tendencies beyond 48 hours...

However, it seems to be behaving this time given what's going on with the other guidance et al.  I'll tell ya, another shift of that magnitude, SE, and we bring snow collapse and real totals contention into the Berks - Monads axis

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s either that , or no cold air on our side of globe talk and then waiting for the next run of the weeklies to shit up the forum . 

I'd take weekly talk any day.

I wish this system would evaporate....all those SE winds are going to be strong enough to do is sweep my neighbor's leaves into my immaculate yard.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's an impressive shift for present modeling standards in the Global s

...not so sure about the NAM's bi-polar tendencies beyond 48 hours...

However, it seems to be behaving this time given what's going on with the other guidance et al.  I'll tell ya, another shift of that magnitude, SE, and we bring snow collapse and real totals contention into the Berks - Monads axis

Yeah get one more upper level shuffle like that and it’s into western SNE for good snows.

[alex]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Upper levels showed that coming… phase was later but still got there.

500mb and 700mb looked good here.  Snow maps agree.

Taking the under for my area but I'm hopeful that the further East development will increase the odds for some upslope in the aftermath. And upslope > synoptic any day for me

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

this is terribad for winter lovers

depends what happens from here.  trough ne of hawaii, aluetian low, developing -AO and lots of high pressue in canada?  I dunno but that could get good, no?

[Typhoon Tip]

Basically ... the models want to bring a last minute snow correction right up to the town just west of ...where ever Ray happens to be when this things passing through... 

For our collective want of Rockwellian holiday mood and specter, let's get him on a fairy ride to about 40 MI S of ACK and drop anchor.  That oughta post-card our cause rather nicely

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's an impressive shift for present modeling standards in the Global s

...not so sure about the NAM's bi-polar tendencies beyond 48 hours...

However, it seems to be behaving this time given what's going on with the other guidance et al.  I'll tell ya, another shift of that magnitude, SE, and we bring snow collapse and real totals contention into the Berks - Monads axis

Will have to wait and see if the other models continue to shift as well, It would be a win for some to mitigate the damage and actually end up with a net gain.

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z GFS pretty wild at BOS on BUFKIT

The current NAM/GFS forecasts just have the core of the LLJ so low that it's not hard to mix some of it down. 

Now there are seasonal differences between the two storms, but the Nammy is currently a more impressive forecast than it had for Oct 2017 right before the event (like 12 hour lead time). Obviously there were still leaves near the coast then, but just the magnitude of wind.

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Just looking at the CT River, and it could rip for a couple hours there even, let alone VT.

Nice lapse rates in the DGZ with lift still going. Could be an hour or two of snow, but could also be 2-4". 

An hour or two of snow too me seems like the more likely scenario, though I could see something like 2-4'' for the ski areas. The dry air is rapidly building in on the backside. 

[michsnowfreak]

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

depends what happens from here.  trough ne of hawaii, aluetian low, developing -AO and lots of high pressue in canada?  I dunno but that could get good, no?

The repetitious posts of warm December maps imply like it's some shock, as if it was unexpected, strong nino and all. Nothing you can really do but just let the warm crowd enjoy and soak it all until the expected change in January. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Basically ... the models want to bring a last minute snow correction right up to the town just west of ...where ever Ray happens to be when this things passing through... 

For our collective want of Rockwellian holiday mood and specter, let's get him on a fairy ride to about 40 MI S of ACK and drop anchor.  That oughta post-card our cause rather nicely

I couldn't care less....keep your back side reach around from this thing.

[Typhoon Tip]

The meteorology of this thing is interesting enough for me. 

Sensibly?  hey, if snows even an inch after the frontal axis slips passed any location that will be 60 not 4 hours prior, that's notable.

The whole situation may yet adjust more SE, too, so that description above may need to changed.  I think we're getting some morphology out of a data relay off the Pacific that we don't normal observe ( as much...) in recent modeling. Bit of a wild card there. 

[dryslot]

Number 3 on the Fraud 5, Anafrontal snow.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Number 3 on the Fraud 5, Anafrontal snow.

Remember we were musing the other day over the lack of wind this autumn.

heh.   That backside of the NAM/GFS solutions would go some distance toward correcting that impression

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Remember we were musing the other day over the lack of wind this autumn.

heh.   That backside of the NAM/GFS solutions would go some distance toward correcting that impression

Yeah, NW is when i really see some big wind usually, Looks like the 12z GFS continues with the trough and SLP further east too.

[weathafella]

This is a big storm coming and unfortunately will likely require at least a 1 week reset before anything happens despite enough cold post fropa Monday.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Remember we were musing the other day over the lack of wind this autumn.

heh.   That backside of the NAM/GFS solutions would go some distance toward correcting that impression

Just two months until warm car tushies.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Thread time for the only game in town

[wxeyeNH]

Congrats PF.  Nail biter yet again for me.  Friends just arrived here from Boston and were amazed how sharp the snow on the ground line is.  Still a winter wonderland but just climbing above 32F which is taking the snow off trees for the first time since the storm.  Took the drone up this morning.  Hills are white.

 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

I believe it..crazy the trees are still caked how many days later. Shows the weight and water content in these…




.

Taken thru our SW-facing window (screen and all) this morning.  Not as pristine as on Tuesday and Wednesday, but still amazing for the 4th day after snowfall ended.

 

[NW_of_GYX]

Opening day at Pleasant Mtn. Enjoying it today and tomorrow. I commented on the east shifts yesterday, but this is still looking like a big headache for CP Maine folks. We rip on NW winds and with trees loaded up with snow this could be bad power issues. CMP has crews from California in my area right now doing preemptive pruning.





.

[tamarack]

48 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Number 3 on the Fraud 5, Anafrontal snow.

Always dries up before reaching here. 

Latest info means maybe mid-30s gusts here.  
We've had only one event that brought gusts stronger than 40-45 since May 1998, a near-severe TS in June 2005 that had a 30-second spell of (probably) mid-50s - rain-mist filled with twigs and numerous large aspen broken down.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Always dries up before reaching here. 

Latest info means maybe mid-30s gusts here.  
We've had only one event that brought gusts stronger than 40-45 since May 1998, a near-severe TS in June 2005 that had a 30-second spell of (probably) mid-50s - rain-mist filled with twigs and numerous large aspen broken down.

NW winds are downsloping here, Its not snowing on those.