December 2023

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well if Jan and Feb aren’t snowy we are FOC’d. Ray just cancelled the next 3 winters due to a geomagnetic storm. 

I think if when we wake up we all look in the mirror and recite “our snow climo just isn’t that good for snow weenies taking time In their adult lives to obsess about snow storms” we will be feeling much happier , bc well it isn’t …until you get up and in.

[Torch Tiger]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It hasn't even been 3 Decembers since we had a big December snowstorm.

I'm going to list the number of warning criteria events in each December for ORH the past 10 years:

 

2013: 2

2014: 0

2015: 0

2016: 2

2017: 1

2018: 0

2019: 1

2020: 2

2021: 0

2022: 0

 

Do you know how many warning criteria snowfalls in December ORH saw in the 10 year stretch between 1982-1991? Exactly 2 and both occurred in Dec 1983. So they had zero December warning criteria snowfalls between 1984-1991.

 

The problem is you (and many of us...me included) got high off the 1995-2010 December snow binge that we forgot that wasn't normal December snowfall climo....now we go 2 Decembers without a good event and the sky is falling.

Yeah it's unrealistic to expect that frequency of textbook storms in December.  My personal December favorites were 03 and 05. iirc '03 was top 5 (at the time anyway) for BOS?  Had 24" in Canton, MA.

[WxWatcher007]

I think the other thing is—if we’re being real a lot of folks only care about winter, and a very specific kind of winter. Snow can only happen in a few weeks relative to the calendar year so the clock is ticking and anxiety rises immediately once the climo window opens. 

[FPizz]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It hasn't even been 3 Decembers since we had a big December snowstorm.

I'm going to list the number of warning criteria events in each December for ORH the past 10 years:

 

2013: 2

2014: 0

2015: 0

2016: 2

2017: 1

2018: 0

2019: 1

2020: 2

2021: 0

2022: 0

 

Do you know how many warning criteria snowfalls in December ORH saw in the 10 year stretch between 1982-1991? Exactly 2 and both occurred in Dec 1983. So they had zero December warning criteria snowfalls between 1984-1991.

 

The problem is you (and many of us...me included) got high off the 1995-2010 December snow binge that we forgot that wasn't normal December snowfall climo....now we go 2 Decembers without a good event and the sky is falling.

Fantastic post, and even less down in our area, but some I guess never bother to look at past history and think 95-10 is the norm, and when there is a slight snow drought, people think we are now North Carolina.  

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Pics please 

  
I wish.  Only camera I might've had back then would be a Polaroid Swinger - nearly the size of a breadbox and took 2"x3" pics that tended to curl severely.   (And probably if saved would be so yellow-brown after 60 years that nothing could be seen.)

[ORH_wxman]

@CoastalWx

Today's "ensembles are completely different from yesterday" session of the EPS....look at the PNA regions bouth south of the Aleutians and the west coast....this isn't even at the end of the run either. It's D11-12.

 

[ORH_wxman]

Fwiw, the end of the run does have a pretty nice ALeutian low developing....but again, these things seem to change on a dime right now during this transition period

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, tamarack said:

  
I wish.  Only camera I might've had back then would be a Polaroid Swinger - nearly the size of a breadbox and took 2"x3" pics that tended to curl severely.   (And probably if saved would be so yellow-brown after 60 years that nothing could be seen.)

No I meant today

[tamarack]

52 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Looking and feeling very decembery. Still below freezing with a few flakes in the air.

 

Well-seasoned oak, hard to beat, but that species is uncommon here thanks to preferential harvests in the distant past.  Whoever owns our woodlot after we're no longer around will have greater amounts of oak, as I've had fun releasing the numerous saplings from the popple and red maple.

When you sit back and think about it, the amount of days and weeks and months we waste of possible snow waiting for that elusive pattern change to kick in really is amazing. All the tracking, all the 10 days that keep getting pushed back.. just happens so often.. and before you know it Tip is posting about warm car seats and sun angle on Feb 10.. and then Morch hits 

Bring it on - Morch is a winter month here.  This past winter the month was 3.5° AN but had 27.9" snow, and that with being only grazed by the mid-month paste bomb.

[iceman1]

looks like snow feels like snow radar showing its snowing look out the window nothing 

[WinterWolf]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

@CoastalWx

Today's "ensembles are completely different from yesterday" session of the EPS....look at the PNA regions bouth south of the Aleutians and the west coast....this isn't even at the end of the run either. It's D11-12.

 

Yes, they’re all over the darn map(no pun intended). And that’s why I asked why even bother looking at OP runs…especially 2 weeks plus out?  

[WinterWolf]

Snowing out!  

[alex]

Finally some sun today!

[NittanyWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

 

Yeah we need to sort of flush out the crap and cool it off a bit. That should happen late month. My guess is the pattern flip won’t necessarily be very cold, but offer more snow chances as a whole with an active look.

We're thinking alike

[tamarack]

42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

No I meant today

Canon's battery is flat, now on the charger.  It did well to allow yesterday's pics.

[Torch Tiger]

31.4 @ 3:39 pm.  Winter-ish!!!

Dug up a piece of wood and there was a centipede thing living underneath! Rekt, hope it freezes

[Damage In Tolland]

First day of 20’s for the high at 29. Protecting that grass pack 

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

First day of 20’s for the high at 29. Protecting that grass pack 

Serious question, when do you start hoping for a warm winter to preserve the grass pack?  I mean everything's still fairly green and lively here like Novie.  

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

First day of 20’s for the high at 29. Protecting that grass pack 

Ok mpm

[CoastalWx]

Yeah saw that Will. Back to KaKa. LOL.  Hopefully it shakes out a little better than that look. But I’m not really worrying at the moment. 

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Fwiw, the end of the run does have a pretty nice ALeutian low developing....but again, these things seem to change on a dime right now during this transition period

 

 

I could see quite a bit going wrong with that look, honestly. lol

[Torch Tiger]

 If anything that looks like a cuttery, quick-hitter pattern....hit 'em and quit 'em.

[mahk_webstah]

I thought DTs video discussion was pretty interesting.  He was choosing the overall euro look going into the first week of January over the GEFS. But also other data that looked pretty interesting in terms of the pattern after December 20.

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 If anything that looks like a cuttery, quick-hitter pattern....hit 'em and quit 'em.

 

22 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

I could see quite a bit going wrong with that look, honestly. lol

Yeah….I could also see a lot going right too…funny how that works!!

 

The ridge is actually in the process of amplifying on that panel so that pattern is probably improving with time. That roughly lines up with the weeklies too. 

[George001]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Lmao…the songs were written when they had a few December’s like Will just showed you that we had in the first decade of the 2000’s.    Cycles. Some December’s it snows. Some and many more than that don’t. 

Those songs have been around for a long long time. They were written during a time when the climate was cooler than it is now. That’s not cycles, it’s climate change. It makes sense, as our climate continues to warm the month that will suffer most is the winter month that is most marginal to begin with (December).  When I see Atlantic ocean temps well AN like this December, im not expecting much. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

Those songs have been around for a long long time. They were written during a time when the climate was cooler than it is now. That’s not cycles, it’s climate change. It makes sense, as our climate continues to warm the month that will suffer most is the winter month that is most marginal to begin with (December).  When I see Atlantic ocean temps well AN like this December, im not expecting much. 

Lol.the odds of a white Christmas have been constant since the 1800s

[Cuteirishgirl25]

That’s always a possibility, however, as I said, all the models are garbage, can’t trust any one of them. They completely ruined the Euro when they updated years ago, The GFS is no better then throwing darts at a dart board. 

[Cuteirishgirl25]

The climate always changing, always has been from the beginning of the creation of the world, and always will be!

[DavisStraight]

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

Well-seasoned oak, hard to beat, but that species is uncommon here thanks to preferential harvests in the distant past.  Whoever owns our woodlot after we're no longer around will have greater amounts of oak, as I've had fun releasing the numerous saplings from the popple and red maple.

When you sit back and think about it, the amount of days and weeks and months we waste of possible snow waiting for that elusive pattern change to kick in really is amazing. All the tracking, all the 10 days that keep getting pushed back.. just happens so often.. and before you know it Tip is posting about warm car seats and sun angle on Feb 10.. and then Morch hits 

Bring it on - Morch is a winter month here.  This past winter the month was 3.5° AN but had 27.9" snow, and that with being only grazed by the mid-month paste bomb.

That's some nice looking ready to burn wood, I have a hickory in my yard that looks like that, just have to cut it up for the stove.

[FXWX]

19 minutes ago, George001 said:

Those songs have been around for a long long time. They were written during a time when the climate was cooler than it is now. That’s not cycles, it’s climate change. It makes sense, as our climate continues to warm the month that will suffer most is the winter month that is most marginal to begin with (December).  When I see Atlantic ocean temps well AN like this December, im not expecting much. 

Folks should go and read David Ludlum New England Weather Book... Wonderful sections on the winters of the 1700/1800 time span... You will come across quotes from journals and diaries written back then complaining about the lack of cold and snow compared to past winters...