December 2023

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When you sit back and think about it, the amount of days and weeks and months we waste of possible snow waiting for that elusive pattern change to kick in really is amazing. All the tracking, all the 10 days that keep getting pushed back.. just happens so often.. and before you know it Tip is posting about warm car seats and sun angle on Feb 10.. and then Morch hits 

This is actually a great post!  I’ve seen this year in and year out.  In most years you get a favorable period but trying to lasso it before it is ready is frustrating.  Nowadays I take a que sera approach.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When you sit back and think about it, the amount of days and weeks and months we waste of possible snow waiting for that elusive pattern change to kick in really is amazing. All the tracking, all the 10 days that keep getting pushed back.. just happens so often.. and before you know it Tip is posting about warm car seats and sun angle on Feb 10.. and then Morch hits 

This is what happens when unrealistic expectations are set in November....it doesn't snow much in November and the first half of December historically. We get some events but they aren't that common...and esp during El Nino.

 

We also don't need perfect 2015 patterns to get good snow events....we like to see them on guidance because it creates more wiggle room, but many years we get snow events in merely serviceable patterns. While I enjoy looking at longer wave patterns, I feel we have progressed past the point of utility at times....if we were doing this exercise in like Dec 2002 (after the 12/5 storm) or Dec 2007....we'd have closed the shades and been "shocked" that these snow events started popping up on guidance when we got closer.

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

will have to wait until Christmas onward for anything better, which is fine and has been known by most (hopefully)

It may be sooner ...

It's a developing state ( so we'll see - ) but as I described ( bothered to analyze ) this morning, there's a burgeoning +PNA signal between D6 and D10.   This 12z ens means'll be interesting in that regard. 

[Torch Tiger]

43 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The bigger question is….do you feel OP runs at 13 and 16 days out are a good representation of where we might be by then?   And before you ask if I would say that if it was showing snow, my answer is “I certainly would.”  
 

I mean the ensembles are so volatile at 6-7 days out, one can’t put any faith in those currently. So the fact that we have little continuity with those, means the Op runs are even more worthless than normal, and especially so at more than two weeks out. 

Hey, jma looks good tho. 

[weatherwiz]

Looks like Wednesday or Thursday we could have a shot for some scattered snow showers 

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Weeklies seem to keep the GOA low too close to the Canadian coast and flood them with Pacific Puke. Do you think this is a red flag for the rest of winter?

 

15 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

There's a source region problem.  Perhaps that Kara-Siberia ridge starts dislodging some cooler air towards AK/NW Canada that can be tapped into at a later date when +PNA base state returns. 

Yeah we need to sort of flush out the crap and cool it off a bit. That should happen late month. My guess is the pattern flip won’t necessarily be very cold, but offer more snow chances as a whole with an active look.

[Lava Rock]

40 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yes it is, We'll be able to ride out of that location as well............

we were over there last month. he's still waiting for windows.

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

This is actually a great post!  I’ve seen this year in and year out.  In most years you get a favorable period but trying to lasso it before it is ready is frustrating.  Nowadays I take a que sera approach.

I was driving back from NH looking at the barren green landscape and was thinking about it. The winter is only so long and when you lose weeks and months .. it just gets extremely stressful 

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

Yeah we need to sort of flush out the crap and cool it off a bit. That should happen late month. My guess is the pattern flip won’t necessarily be very cold, but offer more snow chances as a whole with an active look.

Appreciate the insight. I'm not expecting 15 degrees and cold powder this winter, especially down in Maryland. Just need 30/28 and pillows.

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Hey, jma looks good tho. 

That is a whole different idea than an OP run at 384 hrs…..and the foolish crap is you know that, and you’re just being a tool. 

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

we were over there last month. he's still waiting for windows.

I know, He won't be in there until spring.

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is what happens when unrealistic expectations are set in November....it doesn't snow much in November and the first half of December historically. We get some events but they aren't that common...and esp during El Nino.

 

We also don't need perfect 2015 patterns to get good snow events....we like to see them on guidance because it creates more wiggle room, but many years we get snow events in merely serviceable patterns. While I enjoy looking at longer wave patterns, I feel we have progressed past the point of utility at times....if we were doing this exercise in like Dec 2002 (after the 12/5 storm) or Dec 2007....we'd have closed the shades and been "shocked" that these snow events started popping up on guidance when we got closer.

Well this is all true in varying degrees, but it did used to snow in Nov and Dec.. and not that long ago. I don’t mean a small 1-4” OES event like you guys had yesterday.. we used to get snowstorms in these months.. even if they didn’t last that long OTG. I can’t figure out if it’s just a bad and vicious cycle we’re in , or if this really is what it’s going to be like each year 

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is what happens when unrealistic expectations are set in November....it doesn't snow much in November and the first half of December historically. We get some events but they aren't that common...and esp during El Nino.

 

We also don't need perfect 2015 patterns to get good snow events....we like to see them on guidance because it creates more wiggle room, but many years we get snow events in merely serviceable patterns. While I enjoy looking at longer wave patterns, I feel we have progressed past the point of utility at times....if we were doing this exercise in like Dec 2002 (after the 12/5 storm) or Dec 2007....we'd have closed the shades and been "shocked" that these snow events started popping up on guidance when we got closer.

Ahhh thank you…the voice of reason. That’s the problem, you have people yelling that it should be snowing now. Well that doesn’t happen most of the time in SNE in the first week of December. 

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ahhh thank you…the voice of reason. That’s the problem, you have people yelling that it should be snowing now. Well that doesn’t happen most of the time in SNE in the first week of December. 

Looking and feeling very decembery. Still below freezing with a few flakes in the air.

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well this is all true in varying degrees, but it did used to snow in Nov and Dec.. and not that long ago. I don’t mean a small 1-4” OES event like you guys had yesterday.. we used to get snowstorms in these months.. even if they didn’t last that long OTG. I can’t figure out if it’s just a bad and vicious cycle we’re in , or if this really is what it’s going to be like each year 

It hasn't even been 3 Decembers since we had a big December snowstorm.

I'm going to list the number of warning criteria events in each December for ORH the past 10 years:

 

2013: 2

2014: 0

2015: 0

2016: 2

2017: 1

2018: 0

2019: 1

2020: 2

2021: 0

2022: 0

 

Do you know how many warning criteria snowfalls in December ORH saw in the 10 year stretch between 1982-1991? Exactly 2 and both occurred in Dec 1983. So they had zero December warning criteria snowfalls between 1984-1991.

 

The problem is you (and many of us...me included) got high off the 1995-2010 December snow binge that we forgot that wasn't normal December snowfall climo....now we go 2 Decembers without a good event and the sky is falling.

[weatherwiz]

Was doing some 500mb height anomaly composites of EL Nino/La Nina October's and I have to say...seeing some of those October configurations, I am shocked we haven't seen late October events which rivaled October 2011. Now part of that could be that nay have been one of the latest year's with majority of foliage on trees. 

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

So is the house he's building lol, That will be the view from his second story bedroom.

Do you have any house pics to show?

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It hasn't even been 3 Decembers since we had a big December snowstorm.

I'm going to list the number of warning criteria events in each December for ORH the past 10 years:

 

2013: 2

2014: 0

2015: 0

2016: 2

2017: 1

2018: 0

2019: 1

2020: 2

2021: 0

2022: 0

 

Do you know how many warning criteria snowfalls in December ORH saw in the 10 year stretch between 1982-1991? Exactly 2 and both occurred in Dec 1983. So they had zero December warning criteria snowfalls between 1984-1991.

 

The problem is you (and many of us...me included) got high off the 1995-2010 December snow binge that we forgot that wasn't normal December snowfall climo....now we go 2 Decembers without a good event and the sky is falling.

Well it is what it is I guess. When they wrote all  the lyrics to all of the Xmas songs back in the day .. they must have had snow every year in December. Every Xmas song is about the worts December, icicles forming, mantles and blankets of white, sleigh bells . Ye were snowy times 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It hasn't even been 3 Decembers since we had a big December snowstorm.

I'm going to list the number of warning criteria events in each December for ORH the past 10 years:

 

2013: 2

2014: 0

2015: 0

2016: 2

2017: 1

2018: 0

2019: 1

2020: 2

2021: 0

2022: 0

 

Do you know how many warning criteria snowfalls in December ORH saw in the 10 year stretch between 1982-1991? Exactly 2 and both occurred in Dec 1983. So they had zero December warning criteria snowfalls between 1984-1991.

 

The problem is you (and many of us...me included) got high off the 1995-2010 December snow binge that we forgot that wasn't normal December snowfall climo....now we go 2 Decembers without a good event and the sky is falling.

I wonder if that list were extended back to 1950 ...  I bet if anything there's been more since 1990.

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Looking and feeling very decembery. Still below freezing with a few flakes in the air.

 

Yes sir. We step down. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Was doing some 500mb height anomaly composites of EL Nino/La Nina October's and I have to say...seeing some of those October configurations, I am shocked we haven't seen late October events which rivaled October 2011. Now part of that could be that nay have been one of the latest year's with majority of foliage on trees. 

I've always been a little surprised we didn't see some bigger October snow events over the years....but the water is just so warm in October, it makes it really hard for anywhere on the east coast coast to see it....acts as a pretty big modifier.

The polar jet is also a bit weaker, so it's hard to really spin up excellent baroclinicity even when we do have decent cold airmasses in October....you gotta have the cold airmass but then back the flow off the water into that airmass without modifying it too much. Oct 2011 was able to thread that needle.

[Torch Tiger]

21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That is a whole different idea than an OP run at 384 hrs…..and the foolish crap is you know that, and you’re just being a tool. 

It really isn't, that's what is funny.  You are being hypocritical and you know it, that's why you are defensive. JMA Is a terrible model, I only look at it as like a 8th? lol option to see if it agrees with any consensus of more useful op models.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well it is what it is I guess. When they wrote all  the lyrics to all of the Xmas songs back in the day .. they must have snow every year . Every Xmas song is about the wurst December, icicles forming, mantles and blankets of white, sleigh bells . Ye were snowy times 

Lmao…the songs were written when they had a few December’s like Will just showed you that we had in the first decade of the 2000’s.    Cycles. Some December’s it snows. Some and many more than that don’t. 

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Do you have any house pics to show?

Nothing recent, Just when they started framing back early summer, This will be that view, But i saw the Blue Prints.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Lmao…the songs were written when they had a few December’s like Will just showed you that we had in the first decade of the 2000’s.    Cycles. Some December’s it snows. Some and many more than that don’t. 

Well if Jan and Feb aren’t snowy we are FOC’d. Ray just cancelled the next 3 winters due to a geomagnetic storm. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Lmao…the songs were written when they had a few December’s like Will just showed you that we had in the first decade of the 2000’s.    Cycles. Some December’s it snows. Some and many more than that don’t. 

Some of the songs are a lot older too....like back when they had winter festivals on the Thames because it would freeze over during the height of the Little Ice Age in the 1600s/1700s.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've always been a little surprised we didn't see some bigger October snow events over the years....but the water is just so warm in October, it makes it really hard for anywhere on the east coast coast to see it....acts as a pretty big modifier.

The polar jet is also a bit weaker, so it's hard to really spin up excellent baroclinicity even when we do have decent cold airmasses in October....you gotta have the cold airmass but then back the flow off the water into that airmass without modifying it too much. Oct 2011 was able to thread that needle.

Yeah good point, that shows just how difficult it is to make happen. Some of these October's though have had some pretty hefty blocks. Now I see why there used to be that talk of the somewhat positive relationship between blocking in October and blocking during the upcoming winter.

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

It really isn't, that's what is funny.  You are being hypocritical and you know it, that's why you are defensive. JMA Is a terrible model, I only look at it as like a 8th? lol option to see if it agrees with any consensus of more useful op models.

And it agreed with the others lmao. It’s a weekly tool..not an OP run at 384 hrs. And I only said it looked good, as they others did. I didn’t cite individual storms at 13 and 16 days out, and say it looks likely. There’s a huge difference there. And if you can’t see that, you’re blind as a bat, and tough crap. 
 

And I’m not disingenuous as some others are. When it looks like crap I say it. When it doesn’t, I say that too.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some of the songs are a lot older too....like back when they had winter festivals on the Thames because it would freeze over during the height of the Little Ice Age in the 1600s/1700s.

I wonder if Steve's ancestors wrote any songs about this.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some of the songs are a lot older too....like back when they had winter festivals on the Thames because it would freeze over during the height of the Little Ice Age in the 1600s/1700s.

My point exactly.