December 2023

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

  ninja'd

I am in my office audibly laughing

[bwt3650]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Not one person in the NYC sub forum has cancelled winter. People are saying wait until January and he is throwing a tantrum. 

Read some posts there last week...It's a pretty negative forum.  Don't know this, but I get the impression a lot of posters in there grew up post 1995 and forget what Climo is.  Average High in EWR on December 1 is still 50.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The end of the 06z GEFS looked pretty nice...I don't trust anything beyond about D9-10 though right now because the swings and inconsistency have been remarkable compared to the usual D11-16 variance.

 

The main issue is whether the MJO translation is rushed...because if it isn't, then the better look is correct and the unfavorable ensembles will adjust.

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes.

Allsnow and Snowski are Bebop and Rocksteady

 

 

Who is this dude from the Nintendo game? The polar bear dude dressed as a greaser from the 1950s who threw boulders at you.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Who is this dude from the Nintendo game? The polar bear dude dressed as a greaser from the 1950s who threw boulders at you.

 

He wasn't in the cartoon lol FYI, that has to be the most difficult video game I have ever come across....I have seen more memes made of that underwater electrical minefield that you had to navigate lol

[Typhoon Tip]

Here ya go, Ray -  ...at least someone else corroborates my last 12 years

https://phys.org/news/2023-12-jet-stream-faster-climate.html

"...Though the findings are robust, more research will have to be done to predict exactly how these faster winds will impact individual storms and severe weather occurrence..."

I would argue that cyclone morphology is one of those that will emerge out of that study ( for the upteenth time).  Sorry to be a dick but I have been yelling about this for a long time.  But also in a practical application, the modeling behaviors that we have noted as seemingly idiosyncratic, may actually be more predictive than noise -related error, too.

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The end of the 06z GEFS looked pretty nice...I don't trust anything beyond about D9-10 though right now because the swings and inconsistency have been remarkable compared to the usual D11-16 variance.

...

 

'Unmanned ensemble hose'

[mreaves]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

  ninja'd

Correction, ninja turtled.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Here ya go, Ray -  ...at least someone else corroborates my last 12 years

https://phys.org/news/2023-12-jet-stream-faster-climate.html

I think CC in general will translate into fewer storms and increased intensity of storms.....temp and wind contribute to this.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think CC in general will translate into fewer storms and increased intensity of storms.....temp and wind contribute to this.

Yeah, I edited that post to add a paragraph  ... more thoughts along this way.  

Part of me also thinks that there could be more events ( 'smeared') that are vestigial events that are so stressed that they don't really qualify as what we consider to a "storm"?    There may be 'interpretation boundaries' to this, too. In other words, not really few storms.. just a wider gap between ferocity and pedestrian profiles.

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Here ya go, Ray -  ...at least someone else corroborates my last 12 years

https://phys.org/news/2023-12-jet-stream-faster-climate.html

"...Though the findings are robust, more research will have to be done to predict exactly how these faster winds will impact individual storms and severe weather occurrence..."

I would argue that cyclone morphology is one of those that will emerge out of that study ( for the upteenth time).  Sorry to be a dick but I have been yelling about this for a long time.  But also in a practical application, the modeling behaviors that we have noted as seemingly idiosyncratic, may actually be more predictive than noise -related error, too.

Intriguing. Makes a lot of sense when you think about it. 

I know I've read some stuff which argued differently - that a warming planet would result in decreased winds due to a lessening temperature gradient between the poles and equator (with the greatest warming obviously occurring at the poles). 

But strengthening jet stream makes sense. Sure the temperature contrast between pole and equator is a larger driver in the jet stream, but there is also the vertical contrast in temperature which must be factored in. Much of, if not, all the warming is occurring within the lower troposphere so there is an increasing gradient in the vertical which would also influence the jet. 

Density differences as well would play a significant factor. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, I edited that post to add a paragraph  ... more thoughts along this way.  

Part of me also thinks that there could be more events ( 'smeared') that are vestigial events that are so stressed that they don't really qualify as what we consider to a "storm"?    There may be 'interpretation boundaries' to this, too. In other words, not really few storms.. just a wider gap between ferocity and pedestrian profiles.

So more nuisance events...interesting. The thermal element of CC actually supports fewer middling events....so we will have to see how those competing elements work out.

[FPizz]

34 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Working at Pfizer in Groton Surge came up the Thames all at once. Winds over hurricane force shredded a bunch of tanks skins at Pfizer. No power at home Christmas day which sucked 

You still there?  I'm over in Peapack....until next month when we close down and I head to NYC for work.

[WinterWolf]

Been plenty of middling events last couple yrs..T-2”, covering-1”…1-2”, those have been common lately too. 

[CoastalWx]

I get the moisture aspect in the tropics being a driver. We see that with the MJO and warm waters near the equator. That helps drive the hemispheric pattern...not a warm pool in the NPAC that has an avg temp of 52F instead of 50F.

 

But the poles are warming faster which may help offset a bit? Seems like recently we were hearing the Jet Stream is getting more wavy. But that's how science works. Continuous thought and testing and going back to the theory. 

[WinterWolf]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes.

Allsnow and Snowski are Bebop and Rocksteady

 

Allsnow is a troll…comes in here and weenies everybody, what crap that is. Stay in your own forum if you aren’t gonna contribute anything of substance.  As you said Ray..just drones/and foot soldiers of BS. 

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think CC in general will translate into fewer storms and increased intensity of storms.....temp and wind contribute to this.

Remember there was a time in the winter models would spit out like 2'' QPF during storms and more often than not those numbers would be tossed. We've seen plenty of big dog storms (though certainly not lately) where 2'' QPF is almost too little  

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I get the moisture aspect in the tropics being a driver. We see that with the MJO and warm waters near the equator. That helps drive the hemispheric pattern...not a warm pool in the NPAC that has an avg temp of 52F instead of 50F.

 

But the poles are warming faster which may help offset a bit? Seems like recently we were hearing the Jet Stream is getting more wavy. But that's how science works. Continuous thought and testing and going back to the theory. 

Great point. That's important to understand, especially when using anomaly charts. Still have to understand what the climo and avg. is.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Intriguing. Makes a lot of sense when you think about it. 

I know I've read some stuff which argued differently - that a warming planet would result in decreased winds due to a lessening temperature gradient between the poles and equator (with the greatest warming obviously occurring at the poles). 

But strengthening jet stream makes sense. Sure the temperature contrast between pole and equator is a larger driver in the jet stream, but there is also the vertical contrast in temperature which must be factored in. Much of, if not, all the warming is occurring within the lower troposphere so there is an increasing gradient in the vertical which would also influence the jet. 

Density differences as well would play a significant factor. 

Yeeeah, I've thought of this, too... I suspect there is a longer time dependency in the gradient argument helps figure that out?

See ... the poles are warming faster than the equators.  Truth. But why?  -cthe idea being it's easier to add energy by way of terminating planetary waves into higher latitudes ( extinguishing WAA), along with other factors like open seas --> black body absorption feed-backs, etc, than it is to raise a very high DP equatorial girdle when the solar contribution is for all intents and purposes a constant.  Around the equator, change is happening at the rate of atmospheric chemistry change; inherently slower to the poles where are susceptible to multiple factors -

In simple terms ...after some 10(s) or a 100(s) of years ( sooner or later...) the polar regions will have warmed to where the gradient does begin to reduce as the gap closes. In the meantime, the gradient has been increased. 

It's a matter of comparing rates of changes between the Equatorial factors wrt those of the Polar regions.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I get the moisture aspect in the tropics being a driver. We see that with the MJO and warm waters near the equator. That helps drive the hemispheric pattern...not a warm pool in the NPAC that has an avg temp of 52F instead of 50F.

 

But the poles are warming faster which may help offset a bit? Seems like recently we were hearing the Jet Stream is getting more wavy. But that's how science works. Continuous thought and testing and going back to the theory. 

Yup...just wrote about that to 'Wiz ... 

there's a time dependency there ( imho -) .. It won't offset until the poles warm further.  Cross thresholds (what's new -) and then we go the other way.

But man - just intuitively...  humans, and a lot of species, won't be around to see that because what it would take to get the global gradient into a state of normalization like that?  Isn't that like a Venetian state..

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I get the moisture aspect in the tropics being a driver. We see that with the MJO and warm waters near the equator. That helps drive the hemispheric pattern...not a warm pool in the NPAC that has an avg temp of 52F instead of 50F.

 

But the poles are warming faster which may help offset a bit? Seems like recently we were hearing the Jet Stream is getting more wavy. But that's how science works. Continuous thought and testing and going back to the theory. 

A lot of this stuff is also on the margins...like even the paper Tip linked was something like a 2% change in the speed for every 1C of warming. So you have a 204 knot jet streak instead of 200 knots....

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeeeah, I've thought of this, too... I suspect there is a longer time dependency in the gradient argument helps figure that out?

See ... the poles are warming faster than the equators.  Truth. But why?  -cthe idea being it's easier to add energy by way of terminating planetary waves into higher latitudes ( extinguishing WAA), along with other factors like open seas --> black body absorption feed-backs, etc, than it is to raise a very high DP equatorial girdle when the solar contribution is for all intents and purposes a constant.  Around the equator, change is happening at the rate of atmospheric chemistry change; inherently slower to the poles where are susceptible to multiple factors -

In simple terms ...after some 10(s) or a 100(s) of years ( sooner or later...) the polar regions will have warmed to where the gradient does begin to reduce as the gap closes. In the meantime, the gradient has been increased. 

It's a matter of comparing rates of changes between the Equatorial factors wrt those of the Polar regions.

 

When I took Oceanography several years ago (which was a super fun class) and we were on the subject of the global heat budget there was some discussion by the professor as one theory behind why we have seen so many hurricanes rapidly strengthen in certain regions.

Obviously, we all know that heat is transported poleward via ocean and atmospheric currents and that there is always an excess of heat budget within the Tropics. However, given the rapid warmth at the Poles, the transport budget is being impacted and it's possible that there is an excess budget within the tropics and when tropical systems are able to tap into this they just take off running. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

When I took Oceanography several years ago (which was a super fun class) and we were on the subject of the global heat budget there was some discussion by the professor as one theory behind why we have seen so many hurricanes rapidly strengthen in certain regions.

Obviously, we all know that heat is transported poleward via ocean and atmospheric currents and that there is always an excess of heat budget within the Tropics. However, given the rapid warmth at the Poles, the transport budget is being impacted and it's possible that there is an excess budget within the tropics and when tropical systems are able to tap into this they just take off running. 

LOL, right - a "back log" hypothesis.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

A lot of this stuff is also on the margins...like even the paper Tip linked was something like a 2% change in the speed for every 1C of warming. So you have a 204 knot jet streak instead of 200 knots....

mm, we have to be careful there.

That increase is not linear when it is 2% per degree - I assume they mean C but not sure.  Doesn't matter in arithmetic.

2% of 200kts may result 204kts, but ... 2% of 204 is 208.08. 

Firstly, the forcing may not be trivially impacting, despite seemingly so.  When we get into the "grander machinery" of the atmosphere, smaller decimals can mean bigger variance at smaller scales than we may expect - not just how storms behave, but then naturally in the metrical climate observations. 

Kinda like why a .1% increase from a mammoth sun may have such a dramatic impact on temperatures on Earth ( see Milankovitch Cycles ..etc) ...

[cut]

59 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Here ya go, Ray -  ...at least someone else corroborates my last 12 years

https://phys.org/news/2023-12-jet-stream-faster-climate.html

"...Though the findings are robust, more research will have to be done to predict exactly how these faster winds will impact individual storms and severe weather occurrence..."

I would argue that cyclone morphology is one of those that will emerge out of that study ( for the upteenth time).  Sorry to be a dick but I have been yelling about this for a long time.  But also in a practical application, the modeling behaviors that we have noted as seemingly idiosyncratic, may actually be more predictive than noise -related error, too.

Your Hadley Cell dissertation from (two years ago??) is something that I still ponder. It makes total sense as we warm (and expand) that this would be a thing. I remember your posts about faster jets/winds as well. Good stuff.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

JMA Weeklies just updated. 

Week 1

 

Week 2

 

Week 3 & 4

 

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I meant the weekly product.

 

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS for comparison

GEM:

Add the JMA to the list.

[WinterWolf]

That JMA is a real nice look. 

[tamarack]

17 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

With no leaves? Meh. Damage this time of year has to include heavy wet snow or ice.

Takes lots of wind to topple bare-limbed hardwoods.  I've seen it happen only twice - the Nov 1950 Apps gale and the frigid NW blasts of 12/31/1962.  That latter event, the backside winds from the blizzard that ate BGR, probably gusted 70+.  It smashed plate glass windows, uprooted 2-ft diameter oaks from semi-frozen ground (temps that day were 5/-8 at our NNJ place), and created 5-ft deep drifts from the 2" of paste that fell late on 12/29.  We could see the gusts coming by the clouds of snow obscuring the upwind trees.

Reached -8 this morning and might approach that again tomorrow.  This is the 3rd straight day with essentially no wind.  I can't remember having the trees remain this snow-loaded this long.  Some high clouds drifting in but most of the morning was pure blue seen between the snowy branches.  Spectacular.

[Lava Rock]

Just now, tamarack said:

Takes lots of wind to topple bare-limbed hardwoods.  I've seen it happen only twice - the Nov 1950 Apps gale and the frigid NW blasts of 12/31/1962.  That latter event, the backside winds from the blizzard that ate BGR, probably gusted 70+.  It smashed plate glass windows, uprooted 2-ft diameter oaks from semi-frozen ground (temps that day were 5/-8 at our NNJ place), and created 5-ft deep drifts from the 2" of paste that fell late on 12/29.  We could see the gusts coming by the clouds of snow obscuring the upwind trees.

Reached -8 this morning and might approach that again tomorrow.  This is the 3rd straight day with essentially no wind.  I can't remember having the trees remain this snow-loaded this long.  Some high clouds drifting in but most of the morning was pure blue seen between the snowy branches.  Spectacular.

Nice. What's your temp now? Sitting at 25F. Very January-ish. Any frost in the ground will likely be lost by Tues. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

Nice. What's your temp now? Sitting at 25F. Very January-ish. Any frost in the ground will likely be lost by Tues. 

that’s ok though…we regroup shortly after and make a run. I’m not worried in the least. Hoping to get up to the county day after Xmas…I feel that’s still a decent possibility up there.