December 2023

[dendrite]

 

[dendrite]

At least VT and maybe NH will get to reopen. Getting that wave a little closer to our region should help scour out the CAD a bit more so hopefully my driveway will clear out. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS is mild too. It’s just the time where the Pacific is in flux. It went to crap around day 10 on the 00z run and floods NAMR with maritime air. Hopefully it changes today. 

I meant the weekly product.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

More of those stupid wind maps.

The algorithm in those wind maps must be designed to use a constant mixing depth. At least on bufkit you can play around with different mixing heights. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

The algorithm in those wind maps must be designed to use a constant mixing depth. At least on bufkit you can play around with different mixing heights. 

Its like the Kutchera snow maps...they are only of any use in very select circumstances.

[Typhoon Tip]

What's interesting about that is between 144 and 200 hours there are discerned height falls N/NE of Hawaii.  Prior runs had that, however, it appeared to be more a function of wave space passing through - this is both that, and actually deepening.  There's adding -d(hgt).

Anyway that's usually indicative of a rising PNA.  Minus there, then couples to positive response over the western continent. 

So, I went over and checked the numerical index. Base upon the 00z suite, both the EPS and GEFs rise from -1 SD, tomorrows local nadir, to +1.5 by the 15th.  Moving that particular index a total +2SD isn't always trivial. 

Actually, going back three cycles the index had been trending more positive over successive runs, from all three, EPS/GEFS/GEPS.

Yet despite these changes, we're not seeing 'restoring' event triggered (yet) downstream east of 100W over the continent.  I might suggest that if the above trend were to continue, and add yet more -d(hgt), there could be more +d(hgt) added to the west ... and then things change

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its like the Kutchera snow maps...they are only of any use in very select circumstances.

Here is the 6z GFS bufkit for BDL. Max gust potential I can find atop the mixed layer is 51 knots. But looking at the sounding, it's pretty unlikely we would actually fully mix 

so adjusting the Momentum Xfer down a notch you can see now something around 35 knots...this is more realistic 

 

There is higher wind potential on the backside with the CAA and better mixing with steeper lapse rates

[Lava Rock]

9.9F for the low. 

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I meant the weekly product.

I’d like to see that more of an Aleutian low, but that should work. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Here is the 6z GFS bufkit for BDL. Max gust potential I can find atop the mixed layer is 51 knots. But looking at the sounding, it's pretty unlikely we would actually fully mix 

so adjusting the Momentum Xfer down a notch you can see now something around 35 knots...this is more realistic 

 

There is higher wind potential on the backside with the CAA and better mixing with steeper lapse rates

Why always use a valley pit like BDL that never gets good wind? That’s like using ORH for big heat . 
 

[Layman]

12.2 for the low this morning.  Frosty.  Coldest of the season so far.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why always use a valley pit like BDL that never gets good wind? That’s like using ORH for big heat . 
 

Fair point.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d like to see that more of an Aleutian low, but that should work. 

Yea, ideally the ULL would be a bit further south, but I would take that look and run.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why always use a valley pit like BDL that never gets good wind? That’s like using ORH for big heat . 
 

Here's IJD. There's only so many locations you can get bufkit data for.

Here's HVN

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I meant the weekly product.

GFS for comparison

GEM:

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not a bad consensus....my analogs scream storm around the holiday, which is why I highlighted that period in my work. Not a HECS or anything and may very well have precip type issues.

[weatherwiz]

Rolling that pattern forward would probably equate to big January potential

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Rolling that pattern forward would probably equate to big January potential

I am extremely confident that January will not be boring and have been since about August. Hindsight will be 20/20, but IMO this is the easiest of the 10 seasons I have issued for.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am extremely confident that January will not be boring and have been since about August.

same here. If January and/or February do not work out I am going to be at a loss for words. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

same here. If January and/or February do not work out I am going to be at a loss for words. 

As we’ve said before, a great pattern doesn’t necessarily mean a great result. I’d certainly sign up for the very good/great look, but we can still get stumped.  Sometimes ya need a little good fortune too, to go along with the nice look. Law of averages say we’ll get some good fortune imo. I think we’ll do fine moving forward. 

[MJO812]

You would think winter is about to be canceled if you listen to people in the NYC subforum.

This subforum is top notch.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

As we’ve said before, a great pattern doesn’t necessarily mean a great result. I’d certainly sign up for the very good/great look, but we can still get stumped.  Sometimes ya need a little good fortune too, to go along with the nice look. Law of averages say we’ll get some good fortune imo. I think we’ll do fine moving forward. 

Right...this is where you have to play a hunch and get subjective and anecdotal. We have just endured a several year stretch when essentially everything that could possibly go wrong has gone wrong. I think this is the year that ends, especially since we are going to have a few rough years on tap in other year or two with descending solar triggering increasing geomagnetic fields.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You would think winter is about to be canceled if you listen to people in the NYC subforum.

This subforum is top notch.

 

Heh....well, lets see. I (and others) was (were) saying the same thing a year ago.....that isn't lost on me, but I am confident.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

As we’ve said before, a great pattern doesn’t necessarily mean a great result. I’d certainly sign up for the very good/great look, but we can still get stumped.  Sometimes ya need a little good fortune too, to go along with the nice look. Law of averages say we’ll get some good fortune imo. I think we’ll do fine moving forward. 

No doubt.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think its been since 2011 that we have had a great peak climo period....even 2015 got going the last week of January. Having a great pattern coincide with solar nadir is precious.

[Ginx snewx]

13 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

For who? Powderfreak? Been 13 years here 

Congrats Mr Meh

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Congrats Mr Meh

He’s unbearable. Mr Tauntmeh is a good name for that guy. 

[CoastalWx]

12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’ll imbibe in a legit HWW event but they are generally so rare around here in the interior. The 12/17/00 one though was crazy. I think we gusted 65-70 and lost power for a few hours. 

That was a good one. I remember power flashes being seen and losing power as well. 

 

The cutters in Jan '96 were pretty wild. We had damage in both. I think I told you this story. I was working at Stop & Shop at the time. I was bringing in the carriages (I volunteered to weenie out) and the wind was ripping the sign apart. An old lady came out with her carriage and just got blown over. I remember laughing really hard because it happened so quick..but then I realized she was not getting up. At least I helped her lol. I think this was the last in the series of cutters. 

[Ginx snewx]

12/24/94 was a TS and was awesome 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That was a good one. I remember power flashes being seen and losing power as well. 

 

The cutters in Jan '96 were pretty wild. We had damage in both. I think I told you this story. I was working at Stop & Shop at the time. I was bringing in the carriages (I volunteered to weenie out) and the wind was ripping the sign apart. An old lady came out with her carriage and just got blown over. I remember laughing really hard because it happened so quick..but then I realized she was not getting up. At least I helped her lol. I think this was the last in the series of cutters. 

A record breaking/historic winter here to boot in 1996.