December 2023

[CoastalWx]

At least it allows for something on the 17th. 

[WxWatcher007]

HRRR ftw. More flakes today than most of last winter.  

[tamarack]

Hoping for big CAD Sunday night - won't turn rain to snow but would tone down the furnace

Pic is looking down the unmaintained road just past the house.  Note the pulley for our clothesline.  No sled tracks since the storm, though one went by on much less snow after the Nov. 22 event.

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The February 2016 event is a textbook scenario of how you get a big wind event in these setups. That had steep mid-level lapse rates and low-level lapse rates and unseasonably high llvl theta-e given the impressive warmth/moisture surge. 

That looks like this 

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least it allows for something on the 17th. 

The ensembles are pretty clueless beyond D10 right now. Check out this animation for the last 48 hours on the EPS…12z on the 4th, 12z yesterday and 12z today….all 3 of these are valid Dec 18th 00z

 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The ensembles are pretty clueless beyond D10 right now. Check out this animation for the last 48 hours on the EPS…12z on the 4th, 12z yesterday and 12z today….all 3 of these are valid Dec 18th 00z

 

 

the period even later (Xmas) seems to have  higher confidence bc models have been consistent longer or that has been postulated for the last week plus here  , but does that hold up in your opinion ..if the 10-14 day is up in the air 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The ensembles are pretty clueless beyond D10 right now. Check out this animation for the last 48 hours on the EPS…12z on the 4th, 12z yesterday and 12z today….all 3 of these are valid Dec 18th 00z

 

 

Would be nice to pull something in that time. 

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

HRRR ftw. More flakes today than most of last winter.  

That’s how we know this winter won’t be like last… so different in most ways already.  Had a feeling when it started clouding up close to noon…that HRRR was gonna be right today. 

[CoastalWx]

That period after looks less hostile now. Not sure if that is because things are indeed changing or maybe it's pushed back a few...but kind of encouraging to me. I wouldn't be too confident yet...but at least it didn't get worse.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That looks like this 

That one had steep mlvl lapse rates (which steepened through the evening) and a nice little plume of MLCAPE > 250 J/KG. None of this will be present Sunday. I thought llvl lapse rates were steeper but I guessnot

[CoastalWx]

Euro op has a powerful LLJ..but probably inverted. 

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Would be nice to pull something in that time. 

Tug on a few of these

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

the period even later (Xmas) seems to have  higher confidence bc models have been consistent longer or that has been postulated for the last week plus here  , but does that hold up in your opinion ..if the 10-14 day is up in the air 

I think they are having trouble with the transition period. There’s a strong MJO wave moving through phases 5-6-7 over the next 10-12 days but that is probably conflicting a bit with the low frequency stuff closer to the dateline. So it’s destructive interference if that is indeed the case. 
 

I think models are confident in a good period once we’re out of that destructive interference period which is why very late December into January has consistently looked good. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Here it comes 

https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1732391944372777033?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Here it comes 

https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1732391944372777033?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Looks like a fooking Atari game.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Here it comes 

https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1732391944372777033?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Lol..what a crock of crap that is. Sell hard. These guys are ridiculous…Twitter junkies looking for clicks. 

[ORH_wxman]

50 knot winds at 850mb in the winter on southerly flow…can you get any more mundane for a high wind threat? 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Nice winter appeal today. Coating of snow this morning and then off and on flurries all day.  

[weatherwiz]

21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol..what a crock of crap that is. Sell hard. These guys are ridiculous…Twitter junkies looking for clicks. 

Ridiculous. Pretty graphics and customized outputs to raise the hype. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Ridiculous. Pretty graphics and customized outputs to raise the hype. 

Yup.  Hard to ever take these guys seriously. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Hoping for big CAD Sunday night - won't turn rain to snow but would tone down the furnace

Pic is looking down the unmaintained road just past the house.  Note the pulley for our clothesline.  No sled tracks since the storm, though one went by on much less snow after the Nov. 22 event.

What a beautiful time it’s been.  Hard to believe how nice a few good wet snows can be.

[MJO812]

 

[dendrite]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

50 knot winds at 850mb in the winter on southerly flow…can you get any more mundane for a high wind threat? 

50kt? It’s like double that.

[moneypitmike]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

12/10 is a torch. It’s just a backside flip to snow on the western slopes with enough CAA making it in in time.

Remind me.......where does this rank on the "fraud" list?

[dryslot]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What a beautiful time it’s been.  Hard to believe how nice a few good wet snows can be.

I would love to take a rip right down thru there right now.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Remind me.......where does this rank on the "fraud" list?

[dendrite]

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a fooking Atari game.

Atari graphics ftl. His “mph” look more like “knots”.

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I would love to take a rip right down thru there right now.

Hopefully not a rip like John Kerry.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

50kt? It’s like double that.

Just let em go. When their Xmas decorations end up in your yard.. you can pop them . They don’t understand the setup 

[mreaves]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I would love to take a rip right down thru there right now.

Lol.  That is the exact same thought I had when I saw that picture.