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December 2023


40/70 Benchmark
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  On 12/6/2023 at 7:27 PM, weatherwiz said:

The February 2016 event is a textbook scenario of how you get a big wind event in these setups. That had steep mid-level lapse rates and low-level lapse rates and unseasonably high llvl theta-e given the impressive warmth/moisture surge. 

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That looks like this 

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  On 12/6/2023 at 7:53 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The ensembles are pretty clueless beyond D10 right now. Check out this animation for the last 48 hours on the EPS…12z on the 4th, 12z yesterday and 12z today….all 3 of these are valid Dec 18th 00zIMG_9777.gif.9861528b6175cd27b44ae7bb7a46fa16.gif

 

 

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the period even later (Xmas) seems to have  higher confidence bc models have been consistent longer or that has been postulated for the last week plus here  , but does that hold up in your opinion ..if the 10-14 day is up in the air 

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  On 12/6/2023 at 7:48 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

That looks like this 

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That one had steep mlvl lapse rates (which steepened through the evening) and a nice little plume of MLCAPE > 250 J/KG. None of this will be present Sunday. I thought llvl lapse rates were steeper but I guessnot

image.thumb.png.12a2ba27a13c9304671a7cfba92d859f.png

image.thumb.png.8361f17cfd7b3e2e662b94489ea4f722.png

image.thumb.png.3b887584398b2f30611edc3ca97e4a7b.png

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  On 12/6/2023 at 7:57 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

the period even later (Xmas) seems to have  higher confidence bc models have been consistent longer or that has been postulated for the last week plus here  , but does that hold up in your opinion ..if the 10-14 day is up in the air 

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I think they are having trouble with the transition period. There’s a strong MJO wave moving through phases 5-6-7 over the next 10-12 days but that is probably conflicting a bit with the low frequency stuff closer to the dateline. So it’s destructive interference if that is indeed the case. 
 

I think models are confident in a good period once we’re out of that destructive interference period which is why very late December into January has consistently looked good. 

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  On 12/6/2023 at 7:43 PM, tamarack said:

Hoping for big CAD Sunday night - won't turn rain to snow but would tone down the furnace

Pic is looking down the unmaintained road just past the house.  Note the pulley for our clothesline.  No sled tracks since the storm, though one went by on much less snow after the Nov. 22 event.

IMG_1225.JPG

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What a beautiful time it’s been.  Hard to believe how nice a few good wet snows can be.

6B033694-6B5A-4B03-B2C1-4ABC656B0B2F.thumb.jpeg.ac546cc5056d94f7d2db56100f128b60.jpeg

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