December 2023

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

12z yest the GFS had the FROPA on Sunday afternoon. Now it's moved up toward midnight while the Euro is midday Monday. Seems like the GFS is playing a little catch up.

Dry weekend is better.

[Lava Rock]

28F. At least it looks and feels like winter. Back to bare ground by Mon. 

[TalcottWx]

Congratulations to E Mass on the OES; A TREMENDOUS prize. 

1-2" for all. Winter complete. 

[TalcottWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd rather blog about my 10 month old's diaper rash.

Pfffffftph

[ORH_wxman]

EPS has that window of opportunity similar to what the GFS showed…more defined on todays 12z run. 
 

 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS has that window of opportunity similar to what the GFS showed…more defined on todays 12z run. 
 

 

I like where the ridge axis is located there. 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

I would take that and run. Get the best patterns during peak climo. Part of the issue with last year is when we had our “best” patterns we were fighting climo, while the heart of winter was a massive torch. Punting December isn’t ideal, but I see anything we get in December as a bonus. Punting January is really really bad. 

 

George, I'm loving the new look on you lol. You really have become more level-minded and right on par with all of your posts. Good for you!!

[weatherwiz]

well for those who hate the early sunsets were a few days away from the earliest sunset of the year. Starting next week we make all so ever slow improvements for later sunsets. Bad news for those who hate the late sunrise...still another 6 weeks until the sun starts rising earlier. 

[CoastalWx]

Also, end of EPS maybe trying to get that trough in AK to dig south as an Aleutian low? It's a bit of an extrapolation, but it sort of jives with tropical forcing. 

[powderfreak]

Up in Montreal now, they got plastered.  Even the traffic lights are caked up and down.

[weatherwiz]

Getting close to the time of day where Anthony drops in to tell us the EPS looks good

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Also, end of EPS maybe trying to get that trough in AK to dig south as an Aleutian low? It's a bit of an extrapolation, but it sort of jives with tropical forcing. 

The weeklies sort of showed that happening when you break it down into the sub-week level. Between roughly the 20th and 25th it really tries to spike the PNA via Aleutian low intensification even if the absolute strength of the low isn’t super high yet. The fact that it tries to replace Aleutian ridging is enough. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Getting close to the time of day where Anthony drops in to tell us the EPS looks good

And torchtiger and/or snowman19 weenie him.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The weeklies sort of showed that happening when you break it down into the sub-week level. Between roughly the 20th and 25th it really tries to spike the PNA via Aleutian low intensification even if the absolute strength of the low isn’t super high yet. The fact that it tries to replace Aleutian ridging is enough. 

The weeklies do show that. Lets see this get some traction as we get closer. 

[weatherwiz]

18z HRRR continues to look decent tomorrow out east for a very narrow area. A decent amount of 3km CAPE too. Could really rip locally somewhere.

[Snowcrazed71]

15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Up in Montreal now, they got plastered.  Even the traffic lights are caked up and down.

For driving up to Quebec City late tonight. I think they did get some snow on the ground up there as well. I'm hoping so as we're going to go to the old Christmas village and do some other things winter related

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

18z HRRR continues to look decent tomorrow out east for a very narrow area. A decent amount of 3km CAPE too. Could really rip locally somewhere.

Really got hone in on to get the right cranberry bog to set up camp.

[Lava Rock]

30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

well for those who hate the early sunsets were a few days away from the earliest sunset of the year. Starting next week we make all so ever slow improvements for later sunsets. Bad news for those who hate the late sunrise...still another 6 weeks until the sun starts rising earlier. 

= more solar gain = faster melting sn. Winter is over

[ORH_wxman]

[CoastalWx]

Some of the mesos are getting aggressive near the canal. May want to watch that area by Carver to the canal late tonight and tomorrow.

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

George, I'm loving the new look on you lol. You really have become more level-minded and right on par with all of your posts. Good for you!!

Dearth of "blizzard" triggers may have something to do with that.   haha

we'll see -

[weatherwiz]

NAM has some snow showers for at least western sections Thursday...though greater potential may be more NY and NE PA. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

18z HRRR continues to look decent tomorrow out east for a very narrow area. A decent amount of 3km CAPE too. Could really rip locally somewhere.

Even some snow showers here we take what we can get for now. 

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

You need to fire up a blog post for the southerly wind threat. 

Pete Bouchard was pimping the "extreme winds" coming on Sunday...during yesterday's 6pm forecast. my first thought was-well, here comes another non-event.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Even some snow showers here we take what we can get for now. 

yeah definitely wouldn't be surprised if a few CT towns had some flakes tomorrow. 

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

NAM has some snow showers for at least western sections Thursday...though greater potential may be more NY and NE PA. 

It is interesting to see the mesos with a lot of speckled precip around over the next 36-48 hours....maybe see off and on non accumulating flakes? NBD obviously, I feel like this type of weather would bring sprinkles/off and on showers 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, SJonesWX said:

Pete Bouchard was pimping the "extreme winds" coming on Sunday...during yesterday's 6pm forecast. my first thought was-well, here comes another non-event.

It amazes me how some still don't understand these type of setups. We all know it's extremely difficult for these events to verify on the wind side. There is a clear cut differentiator in these type of events performing:

1) You need convection and strong convection so you need at least some degree of llvl instability 

2) Steep lapse rates - This is probably by far the biggest discriminator in these events producing on the wind side. 

There is always an inversion in these setups - always. Even the weakest of inversions will limit winds from mixing to the sfc. Towards the coast wind potential is usually higher but I don't see big wind potential on a widespread level with this. Even with a forced low topped squall line...I don't think the instability will be there to aid in momentum transport. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

It is interesting to see the mesos with a lot of speckled precip around over the next 36-48 hours....maybe see off and on non accumulating flakes? NBD obviously, I feel like this type of weather would bring sprinkles/off and on showers 

Yeah there is definitely sneaky potential for snow showers scattered about these next few days. So for anyone looking for flakes (whether it's first flakes or just to get in the mood) these next few days offers some opportunities. 

[ORH_wxman]

@CoastalWx

Todays weeklies show that bit of increased split flow we were talking about earlier for week 2…hopefully this trend keeps up and maybe we can avoid a pre-Xmas grinch

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Congrats S Wey. Smack dab in the bullseye. AWT

https://x.com/nwsboston/status/1732110779544109510?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg