December 2023

[weathafella]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s a window in that period as Scott and I were discussing. Some decent cold around and Canada gets a little bit blocky so that can work. Would be nice to get a good break early this winter after last year’s constant bad breaks. 
 

Good to see a Scooter high to the north…even if it’s clown range. 

Yup.

 

All we have is the clowns so send them in....

[Hazey]

I argue that the "hostile" period might only be a couple of days AN. Looks like cold building in at the end of the OP GFS around the 21st and maybe a festive miracle. We pray 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Hazey said:

I argue that the "hostile" period might only be a couple of days AN. Looks like cold building in at the end of the OP GFS around the 21st and maybe a festive miracle. We pray 

Ensembles haven’t been as enthusiastic but they’ve been VERY uncertain. If you look at some of the spread, it’s higher than climo baseline for D13-16. 

It also goes back to what I mentioned earlier in how 4-5 days ago, the end of the ensemble runs were for the 12/15 period and they looked a lot like they do now for 12/20…but as we got closer, they kept cooling that 12/13-17 period. It remains to be seen if the same will happen for that 12/20-22 period, but if MJO goes into weak phase 8, then you’d actually have another factor that could help it trend more wintry. 

[George001]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Updated Euro seasonal looks a lot like my forecast....crappy bookends of December and March, with a good January and February sandwiched in between.

I would take that and run. Get the best patterns during peak climo. Part of the issue with last year is when we had our “best” patterns we were fighting climo, while the heart of winter was a massive torch. Punting December isn’t ideal, but I see anything we get in December as a bonus. Punting January is really really bad. 

 

[NittanyWx]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Exactly ...

In dailies/practical terms, there's nothing there to be either disappointed with, or happy about.  It's really oblivious. 

Agree,  be it MJO ...or a Asian wave break in the flow ...something to impact enough forcing to synergy/constructively interfere.

One thing I am noticing is the WPO is ( numerically) negative, despite the EPO flatlined.  If an MJO is destined to propagate out of the Marine region and comes into western Pac up underneath, the two could certainly do what we are asking above.  If ( and hopefully when) that happens, we see a pattern change from this marching shit above into something more classical.  It could do it pretty quickly too - we'll see.

Agree with this and was making a similar point yesterday.  Lotta ways to skin a cat, tropical forcing being one of them, but would prefer it be some form of combination of influences to overcome background interference.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

[CoastalWx]

Well feels like snow with overcast and 35.6 currently. 

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The usual negative mode of the Methuen snowfall oscillation in full effect....too far east in the first event, south in the last event and now west/north.

Should have bought in an elevated, snowy town. Methuen is awful besides ice events and perhaps localized valley pack retention

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

Should have bought in an elevated, snowy town. Methuen is awful besides ice events and perhaps localized valley pack retention

Awful in this several year stretch....its essentially Wilmington with a little less marine influene.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Awful in this several year stretch....its essentially Wilmington with a little less marine influene.

3/5/01 your first season away from Methuen.   

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

3/5/01 your first season away from Methuen.   

Jan 2015 event jacked this area, too...I was just outside of the heaviest part of that band in Wilmington, but Methuen-Lowell-ORH was in the heart of it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its normally not a spot to jack in big dogs, though....the value of this area is the relatively high floor, like last year....most of SNE had a near record terd and I was still over 40".

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

3/5/01 your first season away from Methuen.   

Then followed by an ‘07-08 extreme latitude gradient winter where he gets almost double the pike region. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Then followed by an ‘07-08 extreme latitude gradient winter where he gets almost double the pike region. 

Tough crowd.

[Typhoon Tip]

59 minutes ago, Hazey said:

I argue that the "hostile" period might only be a couple of days AN. Looks like cold building in at the end of the OP GFS around the 21st and maybe a festive miracle. We pray 

Yup, wrote about this last page or the one before, this morning.

This is not a-typical of 'big warm up' topography whence during these progressive/fast flow patterns.  The "correction vector" is less length of time.   Over and over again, over the years of modeling we can observe this.  A 6-day warm up ends up 18 to 48 hours of warm sector.

This did it exactly like that again.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tough crowd.

It's been a weird stretch for that area for sure. Wx2fish isn't far from you and I know he shares your sentiment. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Then followed by an ‘07-08 extreme latitude gradient winter where he gets almost double the pike region. 

That year was really weird..  My buddy in FIT ( just N of Rt 2 in those hills) got something like 130" ...I was still in Acton at the time and got something like 70 - which isn't bad... It was above normal but Acton and FIT are like 20 mi tops.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's been a weird stretch for that area for sure. Wx2fish isn't far from you and I know he shares your sentiment. 

2016-17 was a pretty solid winter up there too not long before he moved there…had a couple of latitude storms.  It’s like as soon as he moved there l, they turned into the CT river valley. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That year was really weird..  My buddy in FIT ( just N of Rt 2 in those hills) got something like 130" ...I was still in Acton at the time and got something like 70 - which isn't bad... It was above normal but Acton and FIT are like 20 mi tops.

I had 73.5"  in Wilmington, but here in Methuen it must have been 85-90".

[Torch Tiger]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Awful in this several year stretch....its essentially Wilmington with a little less marine influene.

you'll get a bit more snow on average than Wilmington or here of course.  Yeah a dud winter is a dud winter when talking 10 miles in NE MA, it's been rough for most of us.

[weatherwiz]

The differences between the Euro and GFS in terms of timing for Sunday's system are quite crazy.

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The differences between the Euro and GFS in terms of timing for Sunday's system are quite crazy.

timing and strength too...12z sun the gfs has a 986?mb low near the UP of Michigan, Euro 1003mb near Kentucky :D

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The differences between the Euro and GFS in terms of timing for Sunday's system are quite crazy.

I couldn't care any less, aside from hopefully getting it out for the Monday AM commute.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

timing and strength too...12z sun the gfs has a 986?mb low near the UP of Michigan, Euro 1003mb near Kentucky

 

the euro is quite strong with the low too...it's just slower than the GFS. Euro has 982mb 6z Mon 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I couldn't care any less, aside from hopefully getting it out for the Monday AM commute.

root for GFS

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I couldn't care any less, aside from hopefully getting it out for the Monday AM commute.

You need to fire up a blog post for the southerly wind threat. 

[ma blizzard]

35.3/26 overcast

feels wintry 

[dendrite]

12z yest the GFS had the FROPA on Sunday afternoon. Now it's moved up toward midnight while the Euro is midday Monday. Seems like the GFS is playing a little catch up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You need to fire up a blog post for the southerly wind threat. 

I'd rather blog about my 10 month old's diaper rash.

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, iceman1 said:

cant i use my gut feeling 

That works fine for Special Agent Gibbs.  

Had 1.7" of 25:1 fluff from the IVT, much more than usual for those things here, for an event total of 12.4".  Some Franklin County sites had upwards of 15".