December 2023

[Typhoon Tip]

Scott noticed the inverted trough on the GFS 3 or 4 days ago. So yeah, it's been there. The column should be cooling over top so that may offer that instability.  

Thing is, 'NORLUN' used to always be difficult/elusive.  As far as I'm aware they are yet to be very well forecast' ?  not sure what the skill on that phenomenon is as of late.  

I've tried to make a call on NORLUN in the past. The errors I observed were most commonly: getting it to happen, then,  pivoting S as a correction in guidance.  They seemed to start out at some latitude and then tick S.  I've seen some up in Maine tick S and keeping ticking S, ultimately ticking right on out to S and not happening on land at all when the time frame arrives. 

 

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I know.  CNN is and cannot be trusted, as their vetting and materialization of "news" is completely sculpted for manipulating mouse clicks, thumb swipes and TV channel selection. 

But in this case, the essence is valid and I'm willing to drop that reticence in lieu of the bigger picture:   

I don't have qualms with reality and I don't play games with statistical portents, ever.  As soon as the latter starts to materialize a portrait of either cold, warm ...wet or white ...etc, that's it.  I critique that art, not the intent of the artist. In this case,  .9" on day A and .9" on day B ... is a meaninglessness distinction to me. The two day being 1.8" does nothing to invalidate the astonishingly bad illustration of what that means when considering the 650 day span. 

Sometimes we do this in society.  We latch onto to meaningless trifle in the grand tapestry of dog shit truth because there's comfort in the debate. It reminds me my cat while growing up. I would do something like all little shits do to mess with her, and she'd run and stick her head in bag or under the covers. Her whole ass end and tail would be completely sticking out and exposed.  The little space we provide in the debates shelter our perceptions, puts off our necessary acceptance.  Again... it's a human thing. 

The other thing, the articles that I have read, state, 'in a single day' . I'm not numb to the notion that the way that is presented is divisive, but consider the source LOL.  It's like that scene in that over-the-top Michael Bay ( the CNN director of Hollywood ) movie,  "Independence Day" when all the clamor (debating .9 spanning two days...) fades to silence while this eclipsing shadow overtakes skies.  

I hear ya. But they just posted this a week ago…

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/25/weather/snowfall-temperatures-climate-change-water/index.html

 

…which gives a totally different look at megalopolis snow climo. 

The problem is the actual climate change data isn’t flashy enough for the media to grab “a-ha” headlines. Those of us that understand the science know what’s going on and understand the effects. But I feel a lot of these hype headlines, especially after 1 crappy season for the megalopolis, hurts the cause. You don’t have to go too far back to find epic snowy winters for BOS, NYC, and DCA so I’d rather not factor in one specific season into any climate debate. It just gives the deniers fuel for their fire. 
 

Just my $0.02

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Scott noticed the inverted trough on the GFS 3 or 4 days ago. So yeah, it's been there. The column should be cooling over top so that may offer that instability.  

Thing is, 'NORLUN' used to always be elusive.  As far as I'm aware they are yet to be very well forecast' ?  not sure what the skill on that phenomenon is as of late.  

I've tried to make a call on NORLUN in the past. The errors I observed were most commonly: getting it to happen, then,  pivoting S as a correction in guidance.  They seemed to start out at some latitude and then tick S.  I've seen some up in Maine tick S and keeping ticking S, ultimately ticking right on out to S and not happening on land at all when the time frame arrives. 

 

Yeah I file this thing as modeled just an inv trough.

[dendrite]

Yeah who knows if the NORLUN will pan out, but I think it’s cool to see hires models pick them out of an otherwise “larger” scale inverted trough now. 

[NW_of_GYX]

GYX still not biting on the coast. NAM is pretty juicy for mby, more than an 1” qpf modeled. 

[forkyfork]

it's that magical time of year when guys in new england hope for a pattern change around christmas 

[michsnowfreak]

19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I hear ya. But they just posted this a week ago…

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/25/weather/snowfall-temperatures-climate-change-water/index.html

 

…which gives a totally different look at megalopolis snow climo. 

The problem is the actual climate change data isn’t flashy enough for the media to grab “a-ha” headlines. Those of us that understand the science know what’s going on and understand the effects. But I feel a lot of these hype headlines, especially after 1 crappy season for the megalopolis, hurts the cause. You don’t have to go too far back to find epic snowy winters for BOS, NYC, and DCA so I’d rather not factor in one specific season into any climate debate. It just gives the deniers fuel for their fire. 
 

Just my $0.02

I'd love to see what actual goes into compiling a map like this. Because raw data here would show there has been very minimal change here. In fact, from 1973-74 to 2022-23, Nov-Mar precip increased 0.06" and snowfall increases 1.1".

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it's that magical time of year when guys in new england hope for a pattern change around christmas 

No one is hoping 

[forkyfork]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No one is hoping 

climate change is taking this away from most of us

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it's that magical time of year when guys in new england hope for a pattern change around christmas 

Are you planning on grafting next spring? I need to order some of the things I want soon. I want more disease resistant european pears.

[ORH_wxman]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Blue hill special on 12k.

Good lift in DGZ in the IVT. May have to watch for a sneaky low end advisory potential for E MA…esp just off the immediate water. Wouldn’t forecast anything yet but def keep it in the back of our minds. 

[MJO812]

Just now, forkyfork said:

climate change is taking this away from most of us

Remember when it use to snow in December ? Meh

[brooklynwx99]

24 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it's that magical time of year when guys in new england hope for a pattern change around christmas 

you don't think there's any validity? it's supported by the tropical convection moving along

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

climate change is taking this away from most of us

Mamacita donde esta Santa Claus

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Mamacita donde esta Santa Claus

I wish Jesus was born in July.

[NW_of_GYX]

Snowing big aggregates in Conway, NH

[Damage In Tolland]

Man next weekend looks wild on most sets of guidance. That is one hell of a warm southerly surge and scream coming right out of deep tropics up East coast. That reminds of the Xmas Eve screamer we had a few years ago that wiped deep winter out in under 10 hours 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Remember when it use to snow in December ? Meh

Even in the cold 76-77 Winter the first real snow was Christmas night.  Snow on the ground Christmas morning in the NYC metro (and I suspect most of I-95) wasn't that common.  It will only get worse as it seems like the offshore Atlantic waters are getting warmer.

[CoastalWx]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Good lift in DGZ in the IVT. May have to watch for a sneaky low end advisory potential for E MA…esp just off the immediate water. Wouldn’t forecast anything yet but def keep it in the back of our minds. 

Yeah decent look on the soundings. Definitely one to watch.

[George001]

22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you don't think there's any validity? it's supported by the tropical convection moving along

Fair enough, but we aren’t kicking the can this winter. If things look good by then and we have an event on the horizon, then I’ll be excited. If we get to early Jan with nothing on the horizon then its time to write winter off as a rat. I don’t think that’s too unreasonable.

[alex]

Flakes falling but pretty toasty, 35/32. Feels damp and cold though 

[DavisStraight]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

Fair enough, but we aren’t kicking the can this winter. If things look good by then and we have an event on the horizon, then I’ll be excited. If we get to early Jan with nothing on the horizon then its time to write winter off as a rat. I don’t think that’s too unreasonable.

2015 started later in January

[wxeyeNH]

34.1/32   awaiting precip

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I hear ya. But they just posted this a week ago…

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/25/weather/snowfall-temperatures-climate-change-water/index.html

 

…which gives a totally different look at megalopolis snow climo. 

The problem is the actual climate change data isn’t flashy enough for the media to grab “a-ha” headlines. Those of us that understand the science know what’s going on and understand the effects. But I feel a lot of these hype headlines, especially after 1 crappy season for the megalopolis, hurts the cause. You don’t have to go too far back to find epic snowy winters for BOS, NYC, and DCA so I’d rather not factor in one specific season into any climate debate. It just gives the deniers fuel for their fire. 
 

Just my $0.02

Oh I think that's worth a proverbial couple of bucks, actually.  

I've yelled with pen for years that CC doesn't have enough natural advocates, in that, it's taking too long to appeal to any of the natural senses. That is the problem

What is read on the side of humanity's bus is, "Denial Unlimited" while we ride along toward the cliff.  The ass end of the vehicle is completely stained by exhaust soot. 

This probably all should go over to the climate forum somewhere, but the lacking evidence aspect is at last starting to change. Images of glacial retreat, sea level rise this and that.  Hearing of rising heat -related deaths (empirically) at an alarming rate all over the world. It's not like it was just a hot Asia. It's observed and objectively measured spanning every continent (when will DCA-BOS have their 108 day). 

For objective minded observers, these are not easily explainable by so-called, 'naturally occurring phenomenon' of rogue weather patterns. The unilateral aspect is damming, nor are these invented CNNers... As much as we loath the "Industrial Media Complex,"  you know ...maybe, just maybe, the shock headline can in principle serve an unintended good - this is what it takes (apparently) for pacified Industrial societies to wake the fuck up. 

It's always been that way. Since (really) the early to particularly mid last century.  Anyone can search this material and read about it in short order but scientists began postulating global warming over a 100 years ago. It was mostly drilled into volcanoes and/or celestial mechanics in the early decades - probably the source of the "this has always happened" mantra. But, by the 1960s the first postulations were advanced related to C02 - that which can be related to human activities. 

The 1970s were an 'awareness set-back,' more apt to say an 'ah, bunch of bullshitness' decade (the very primitive first form of denial) as the global temperature curve either leveled off for awhile, or even descended slightly (I've seen conflicting records on either).

But really, this warming world has been a non-deviated positive when observed over the longer term trend, going back to 1900. It's just that only in the last 20 years have we begun to cross thresholds. So yeah, the proverbial memo is now passing through eye balls and ear canals.  Kind of reminds me of how art can be inspired by reality. We only hope reality won't parody that scene in the movie "Return Of The Jedi," between "Darth Sidious" and the "Luke Skywalker" hero:   "Young fool. Only now, at the end, do you understand"    

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

34.1/32   awaiting precip

Nice. 36.1° and dropping. Do a “sounding” yet?

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, George001 said:

Fair enough, but we aren’t kicking the can this winter. If things look good by then and we have an event on the horizon, then I’ll be excited. If we get to early Jan with nothing on the horizon then its time to write winter off as a rat. I don’t think that’s too unreasonable.

I think that is unreasonable. Ninos are backloaded... places can easily not see much before Jan begins and the rest of the winter can still be great. 2014-15 is the prime example of that

[STILL N OF PIKE]

snowing solidly at Wildcat , top to bottom . On chair 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Month looks like dung, we tried to tell em.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Month looks like dung, we tried to tell em.

this was forecast by pretty much everyone. end of the month into early Jan shows some promise though. just going to have to be patient

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I wish Jesus was born in July.

I think there is an argument out there that Jesus may have been really born in June.