December 2023

[Sey-Mour Snow]

GEFS look pretty awful through the 19th and at least a few days after that.  Things definitely trending lights out til at least Christmas week. Hopefully we sneak in a snow event somewhere in there. No reason to freak out as most expected this. Hopefully the pattern progresses to what we want and think will happen by Christmas week. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

Still a Nina hangover look too. Not really seeing Nino driving yet. End of GEFS look like last December lol. 
 

 

Arguably worse without that monster -NAO

[CoastalWx]

Weeklies still insistent on a flip near Christmas so we hope. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Weeklies still insistent on a flip near Christmas so we hope. 

Ya and it matches up with end of ensembles so it makes sense. 

[Damage In Tolland]

This place will be unbearable this month 

[mahk_webstah]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

Still a Nina hangover look too. Not really seeing Nino driving yet. End of GEFS look like last December lol. 
 

 

Another year with great promise in medium and long range models that isn’t realized for many?

No change.

[Typhoon Tip]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think anyone is arguing the pattern now doesn't suck, which isn't unexpected. However, the blocking this early is a positive auger for the balance of the season. 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/02/weather/northeast-snow-new-york-climate/index.html

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya and it matches up with end of ensembles so it makes sense. 

I don’t know, I still didn’t see it on the ensembles. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t know, I still didn’t see it on the ensembles. 

the change looks pretty quick as the MJO propagates so I'm not really that worried

[Damage In Tolland]

All models agree on that huge screamer a week from today . 

[dendrite]

That NYC 1” snowfall stat even triggers me every time I see it. The point stands…there’s been little to no snow down there, but the “no 1” snowfall” stat for NYC is disingenuous. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t know, I still didn’t see it on the ensembles. 

I’m saying the unfavorable look at the end of the ensembles is there on the weeklies too. Then the weeklies shift everything east to a more favorable pattern towards the holidays. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Last December's big dump here was 9:1 and came at temps 30-31.  Don't need 10:1 to have fun.  Current forecast for here is 7-12.

We had 6:1 ratios last Sunday night.  Crazy that the exact same time frame a week later looks fairly identical.

Mountains look good for a healthy 8-12” of heavy wet snow while under 1000ft could be 2-5” of just birch breaking snow after starting as rain.

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I’m saying the unfavorable look at the end of the ensembles is there on the weeklies too. Then the weeklies shift everything east to a more favorable pattern towards the holidays. 

Ahh gotcha. Yeah it still looks like a flip toward the holidays. 

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the change looks pretty quick as the MJO propagates so I'm not really that worried

It’s going to need work, but I think towards the holidays. 
The EPs does show a couple chances especially interior in the 10-15 day. 

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s going to need work, but I think towards the holidays. 
The EPs does show a couple chances especially interior in the 10-15 day. 

yeah I think for anything significant it'll have to wait until Christmas week but it's hard to totally punt all that time then. something can be fluked into with a well timed HP or something

[Modfan2]

38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This place will be unbearable this month 

I recommend this to ease the pain

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GEFS look pretty awful through the 19th and at least a few days after that.  Things definitely trending lights out til at least Christmas week. Hopefully we sneak in a snow event somewhere in there. No reason to freak out as most expected this. Hopefully the pattern progresses to what we want and think will happen by Christmas week. 

Yup most expected this December to be awful, most

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That NYC 1” snowfall stat even triggers me every time I see it. The point stands…there’s been little to no snow down there, but the “no 1” snowfall” stat for NYC is disingenuous. 

"normally" it would trigger me, also?  But it doesn't in this case.  The latter aspect, "The point stands..." is an empirical that's shared at continental scale - at least the eastern limb.  So much so that overwhelms the ability to do so for me.  

- seeing as everyone gives a shit what I think. lol

[CoastalWx]

That’s a hell of a screamer on the euro. Shut ‘em down.

[dendrite]

They had an epically shitty winter last season. But the 600+ day streak is so CNN since it includes two full warm seasons on each bookend. 

[Snowcrazed71]

So the weather is what it is. If we have a shit pattern for the next couple of weeks then we have a shit pattern for the next couple of weeks 

I also do believe that they're always are things that could change within the so-called shitty pattern. We've seen things sneak up and give us something unexpected before, so that's where my outlook is going with this upcoming pattern.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So the weather is what it is. If we have a shit pattern for the next couple of weeks then we have a shit pattern for the next couple of weeks 

I also do believe that they're always are things that could change within the so-called shitty pattern. We've seen things sneak up and give us something unexpected before, so that's where my outlook is going with this upcoming pattern.

So far it’s according to plan. But, it’s not because it went full blown strong Nino look. 

[SnoSki14]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ahh gotcha. Yeah it still looks like a flip toward the holidays. 

Maybe but there's a tendency to rush things and there's an MJO lag to take into consideration.

We're actually kinda similar to 2015 but the blocking will prevent another Dec 2015 style warm anomaly. January could be good.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Maybe but there's a tendency to rush things and there's an MJO lag to take into consideration.

We're actually kinda similar to 2015 but the blocking will prevent another Dec 2015 style warm anomaly. January could be good.

Towards the end of the ensembles has a brief Dec 15 look in the PAC. 
 

I know there’s a MJO lag which I why I think toward Christmas. 

[Typhoon Tip]

55 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They had an epically shitty winter last season. But the 600+ day streak is so CNN since it includes two full warm seasons on each bookend. 

I know.  CNN is and cannot be trusted, as their vetting and materialization of "news" is completely sculpted for manipulating mouse clicks, thumb swipes and TV channel selection. 

But in this case, the essence is valid and I'm willing to drop that reticence in lieu of the bigger picture:   

I don't have qualms with reality and I don't play games with statistical portents, ever.  As soon as the latter starts to materialize a portrait of either cold, warm ...wet or white ...etc, that's it.  I critique that art, not the intent of the artist. In this case,  .9" on day A and .9" on day B ... is a meaninglessness distinction to me. The two day being 1.8" does nothing to invalidate the astonishingly bad illustration of what that means when considering the 650 day span. 

Sometimes we do this in society.  We latch on to some meaningless trifle in the make up of the grander dog shit truth because there's comfort in the debate. It reminds me of my cat while growing up. I would do something like all little shits do to mess with her, and she'd run and stick her head in bag or under the covers. Her whole ass end and tail would be completely sticking out and exposed.  The little space we provide in the debates shelter our perceptions, puts off our necessary acceptance.  Again... it's a human thing. 

The other thing, the articles that I have read, state, 'in a single day' . I'm not numb to the notion that the way that is presented is divisive, but consider the source LOL.  It's like that scene in that over-the-top Michael Bay ( the CNN director of Hollywood ) movie,  "Independence Day" when all the clamor (debating .9 spanning two days...) fades to silence while this eclipsing shadow overtakes skies.  

[dendrite]

Back to the here and now…

36° and -SHRA

Most models have been flipping the column to snow by midday. Like Chris said last night, I kinda like the depth increase in this for totals. That would put us at 2-3” on the NAM. 
 

That’s a nice little norlun feature modeled on the 3k for coastal locations. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Back to the here and now…

36° and -SHRA

Most models have been flipping the column to snow by midday. Like Chris said last night, I kinda like the depth increase in this for totals. That would put us at 2-3” on the NAM. 
 

That’s a nice little norlun feature modeled on the 3k for coastal locations. 

Blue hill special on 12k.

[ma blizzard]

as @CoastalWxpointed out yesterday, we watch tuesday afternoon / night for maybe T-2 with that IVT feature? NAM has been consistent going back to the 18z run yesterday. 

for SNE eastern / coastal areas probably the best chance for anything the next 10 days

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Back to the here and now…

36° and -SHRA

Most models have been flipping the column to snow by midday. Like Chris said last night, I kinda like the depth increase in this for totals. That would put us at 2-3” on the NAM. 
 

That’s a nice little norlun feature modeled on the 3k for coastal locations. 

Typical SWFE event, 6-10" foothills and mtns, 12z Nams and 12z HRRR looked good, My call has been 4-8" here and that's the final.