December 2023

[Go Kart Mozart]

45 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya…throw a dart blind and drunk, and you might do better than an 18z GFS. 

You don't agree with the hour 350 mega-blizzard?

[Lava Rock]

18z euro warmer. Liquid in Lewiston?

Roll up sled was my preference

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

You don't agree with the hour 350 mega-blizzard?

Lmao…oh ya, it’s spot on Mozart.  Those 18z runs are such a joke most all the time. Always exotic ideas…cold or warm. Toss em to Pluto. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Lmao…oh ya, it’s spot on Mozart.  Those 18z runs are such a joke more st all the time. Always exotic ideas…cold or warm. Toss em to Pluto. 

How are the French milfs in Northern Maine

id like Brooklyn to post weeklies of their migrating patterns 

[powderfreak]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Always exotic ideas…cold or warm. Toss em to Pluto. 

True in general on models, expect the opposite of exotic.  Look for mundane toned down outcomes, like cold rain.  Good post, toss exotic excitement to Pluto.

[powderfreak]

Can see how the low level thermals are so dependent on dynamic cooling/strong lift aloft.  If precipitation isn't as heavy or steady, this system probably trends warm in outcome.  The precipitation just crushes the freezing/snow level downward toward the surface.  KMPV/Montpelier.

Been a super wet past two months.  About 9" of water equivalent between 10/1 and 12/1.  Mother Nature hasn't been afraid to precipitate, regardless of rain or snow.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

How are the French milfs in Northern Maine

id like Brooklyn to post weeklies of their migrating patterns 

Week 3 and 4 they are migrating towards snow machine owning personal at local watering holes, a couple hrs after sunset. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Animal control is going to be on speed dial this winter for wolfie.

[Torch Tiger]

animul ****roll!      

[SnoSki14]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I honestly think that stetch... not the season, could rival 2011 and 1996 if things break right. 

What makes you so confident things just don't keep getting pushed back like last year.

The -PDO is not encouraging 

Bluewave would definitely call you out on it. 

[CoastalWx]

6z gfs is a nice example of maximizing a meh pattern.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

What makes you so confident things just don't keep getting pushed back like last year.

The -PDO is not encouraging 

Bluewave would definitely call you out on it. 

Ya know... No one knows anything for sure. I can ask you the same thing... What makes you so sure it will keep pushing back like last year.?

First off, no 2 years are identical. So there's your answer on being like last year 

Second.... The weather ( and the models ) will fluctuate and change. What we don't see now on the GFS or the Euro, can all of a sudden appear tomorrow ( just as some things we see now will disappear tomorrow. 

If I've learned anything when it comes to the weather is that it always changes. No one will ever get it 100% right. But eat assured, it will not be just like last year.

[CoastalWx]

Looks like euro trended warmer and less QPF. 

[jbenedet]

That 6z GFS run with the cutter potential turned bowling ball around day 10 is such a COC tease. I mean, sure if we can project the -2 NAO 9 days out and say that will still be in place; but nothing supports that.

Then you look at the GEFS at day 10; surface to H5 and see how much of an illusion that op output is.

Sell bowling ball; buy GLC; turned shredded POS in southern Ontario. 

[Layman]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Ya know... No one knows anything for sure. I can ask you the same thing... What makes you so sure it will keep pushing back like last year.?

First off, no 2 years are identical. So there's your answer on being like last year 

Second.... The weather ( and the models ) will fluctuate and change. What we don't see now on the GFS or the Euro, can all of a sudden appear tomorrow ( just as some things we see now will disappear tomorrow. 

If I've learned anything when it comes to the weather is that it always changes. No one will ever get it 100% right. But eat assured, it will not be just like last year.

While tone is a difficult thing to discern online, I don't necessarily think the question about where the confidence comes from is unjustified.  However, my understanding is the man dedicates a significant amount of time to defining exactly that in his seasonal write-ups so the answer likely lies within that.  I've found them to be too densely packed and filled with terms I don't yet understand thoroughly so it's a slog trying to read them but I do appreciate the brief clarifications that show up in the threads that are ultimately bolstered by that document.  

To that end, I agree with much of what you said with respect to the fact that weather constantly changes, it's going to do what it's going to do and the experts will do their best to attempt to predict/forecast what's going to happen.  My simplistic perspective of seasonal forecasting is that it's incredibly easy to fail at and it's a step or two above making guesses as to what's going to happen.  Alternatively, there's clearly a tremendous amount of data and research that goes into it so who am I to say it doesn't have merit simply because I don't understand it?

So something is behind the confidence that this year won't be like last year, and he's likely already explained it and I didn't understand it . I too am curious where the confidence comes from and may have posed the question differently (assuming I knew what I was talking about):  "What gives you confidence that things won't continually get pushed back like last year? The -PDO is not very encouraging."

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

That 6z GFS run with the cutter potential turned bowling ball around day 10 is such a COC tease. I mean, sure if we can project the -2 NAO 9 days out and say that will still be in place; but nothing supports that.

Then you look at the GEFS at day 10; surface to H5 and see how much of an illusion that op output is.

Sell bowling ball; buy GLC; turned shredded POS in southern Ontario. 

Agreed ... regardless of approach/technique/method in this game, that feature/handling on that run looks like an artifact of noise.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Layman said:

While tone is a difficult thing to discern online, I don't necessarily think the question about where the confidence comes from is unjustified.  However, my understanding is the man dedicates a significant amount of time to defining exactly that in his seasonal write-ups so the answer likely lies within that.  I've found them to be too densely packed and filled with terms I don't yet understand thoroughly so it's a slog trying to read them but I do appreciate the brief clarifications that show up in the threads that are ultimately bolstered by that document.  

To that end, I agree with much of what you said with respect to the fact that weather constantly changes, it's going to do what it's going to do and the experts will do their best to attempt to predict/forecast what's going to happen.  My simplistic perspective of seasonal forecasting is that it's incredibly easy to fail at and it's a step or two above making guesses as to what's going to happen.  Alternatively, there's clearly a tremendous amount of data and research that goes into it so who am I to say it doesn't have merit simply because I don't understand it?

So something is behind the confidence that this year won't be like last year, and he's likely already explained it and I didn't understand it . I too am curious where the confidence comes from and may have posed the question differently (assuming I knew what I was talking about):  "What gives you confidence that things won't continually get pushed back like last year? The -PDO is not very encouraging."

Great post Layman.  You’re learning fast. The guys in here in the know are very good about explaining things. Keep asking your questions.   
 

The person who asked Ray that question many times can get caught up in the constant negative hand wringing that some display around here.  It’s a detriment to the board.  However, I will give that person credit for actually asking a good and fair question in that instance.  

Many are scarred and jaded due to last years total Rat of a season. And I can completely understand that. It’s very easy to just go with the persistence type idea, and when any little thing doesn’t go the way they think it should, they say see…it’s just like last year all over again. 

But  that’s the exact wrong way to approach things.  This is not last year. It’s already different than last year. If one actually looks at the set up, it’s clearly different.

 Sure, one can always find something that’s similar, and then claim and exaggerate it’s the same, as some of these folks do and whine about.  But the truth is it’s not.  

November finished 2 degrees below normal this year at BDL. But If we listened to the trolls back at the end of October, they told us that this coming November(despite a couple cool days)was going to be a blast furnace overall this year, just like it was last year. That’s some funny stuff, now that we look back at a solidly below normal month. With many frosts and freezes, and many we’ll below normal high temp days. 
 

This is not last year. And ultimately that’s all anybody needs to know.  I/We won’t finish at 12” of snow (normal is about 50” for me) like I did last year here in west of the River interior CT.  That I will bet on. 
 

Your new, and learning, just be careful not to get caught up in the negativity, and fake nonsense that some spew here. Ray can explain his reasoning better than I can, so I’ll leave that to him. But he is definitely one of the good sources to learn from. Guy knows his stuff, and can lay it out for you very clearly. 

[MJO812]

Winters canceled per NYC subforum 

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

What makes you so confident things just don't keep getting pushed back like last year.

The -PDO is not encouraging 

Bluewave would definitely call you out on it. 

Because all the seasonal models are going as planned and nothing is showing a blowtorch or getting pushed back.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winters canceled per NYC subforum 

And That’s why some of those silly people wander in here, and then spread the same nonsense….that place is a cesspool.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Close the shades until close to Christmas at least. This week is for far NNE and then we moderate.

[WX-PA]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

And That’s why some of those silly people wander in here, and then spread the same nonsense….that place is a cesspool.  

Again if it was a postitive NAO with this strong el nino in December of course I would punt..And if the second half of the month showed MJO in phase 3-6..sure that's warm stuff....Euro weeklies look great for the last week or so of December into January..Again they could reverse tomorrow.nobody knows but to call December a warm month with no snow at this point is foolish like you are seeing on the NYC forum.

[UnitedWx]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winters canceled per NYC subforum 

I canceled that subforum years ago...

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

I canceled that subforum years ago...

Smart man.    Stay away from that dumpster fire. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Again if it was a postitive NAO with this strong el nino in December of course I would punt..And if the second half of the month showed MJO in phase 3-6..sure that's warm stuff....Euro weeklies look great for the last week or so of December into January..Again they could reverse tomorrow.nobody knows but to call December a warm month with no snow at this point is foolish like you are seeing on the NYC forum.

Good post. It’s the same few who told us November was gonna be far and away a big torch too at the end of October. 

[rclab]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winters canceled per NYC subforum 

 

21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

And That’s why some of those silly people wander in here, and then spread the same nonsense….that place is a cesspool.  

Good morning WW. It isn’t easy keeping clean but even though I squint pretend sometimes when in the postage stamp, I still love it here. If the fellow in the last photo shows up I have faith that the Admins will make quick work of it. Stay well, as always ….

 

[dryslot]

Nam's look good.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Nam's look good.

That’s what she said..

 

Until she didn’t 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

What makes you so confident things just don't keep getting pushed back like last year.

The -PDO is not encouraging 

Bluewave would definitely call you out on it. 

What got pushed back last year? We got the huge block in December, regardless of of the fact that it didn't produce snow on the east coast. Again, we got the Feb SSW and resultant huge block in March, right on schedule. -PDO is fine as long as you aren't expecting a very cold eastern winter, which no one is. This will not be a prohibitively extreme-PDO list last year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It seems like some folks are so emotionally fragile and dependent upon snow that they want a written guarantee of crystalized armageddon in their back yard. It doesn't work like that...all you can do is diagnose general features in the pattern and hope for the best. Any additional measures to safe guard against what we are observing in this forum at the very onset of met winter should be taken on the couch or zoom feed of a good therapist.