December 2023

[ineedsnow]

Just now, dryslot said:

What a cave job by the GFS, Euro will score the win on the 4th.

Yup I wish it could cool off just a bit more looks like fun north of here 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

What a cave job by the GFS, Euro will score the win on the 4th.

Was just thinking that. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Yup I wish it could cool off just a bit more looks like fun north of here 

Models sniff out the colder air as we get closer, That 12z GFS came in a few tics cooler this run, If that would continue, You could get into some of it.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Was just thinking that. 

Not even debatable really.

[weatherwiz]

There is definitely room to get things a bit cooler for areas borderline.

[CoastalWx]

GFS trying for the 6th.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There is definitely room to get things a bit cooler for areas borderline.

I believe so too, It won't take much.

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

GFS trying for the 6th.

You and Rays favorite IVT......lol

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

You and Rays favorite IVT......lol

The inv dong of destiny in SW CT.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, mreaves said:

Here is how November ended in VT

BTV -2.1°

MPV -1.7°

MVL -.7°

November numbers:

Mean:        31.0   -2.4
Avg max:   39.8   -2.5     Mildest, 52 on the 7th
Avg min:    22.2   -2.3     Coldest, 11 on the 30th

Precip:  2.63"   -1.58"     Highest day, 1.03" on the 27th

Snowfall:  4.9"   +0.3"    4.6" fell on the 22nd.

Some pleasant (but small-sample-size) November temp/snow trends:
2023 was the 12th with BN temps.  The previous 11 had 114% of avg snow,
                                                            9 had AN snow and 7 of our 10 with triple-digit totals came with November having BN temps.
October 2023 had well above average temps.  The 5 years with Oct AN and Nov BN had 125% of avg snow and all 5 were AN, though 12-13 by less than 2".

I certainly hope the trends continue.  



 

[dendrite]

A little surprised there’s not much in the way of a mixed ptype zone in the soundings. It’s pretty much riding the line isothermal here. That subtle BD and CADing out ahead of the primary is the real key for snow here. 

[ORH_wxman]

Decent shortwave. That would prob produce snow for someone if it tracked like that on 12/6. 
 

Not expecting it though until other guidance gets more amped. I still think there’s a chance for something in the several days after that too. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I believe so too, It won't take much.

there looks to be a very weak CAD signal...weak enough to where the models may be understating how cold it may be. I could see the models being 2-3F too warm at the sfc.

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Decent shortwave. That would prob produce snow for someone if it tracked like that on 12/6. 
 

Not expecting it though until other guidance gets more amped. I still think there’s a chance for something in the several days after that too. 

That would actually probably be pretty nice for interior SW CT

[tunafish]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A little surprised there’s not much in the way of a mixed ptype zone in the soundings. It’s pretty much riding the line isothermal here. That subtle BD and CADing out ahead of the primary is the real key for snow here. 

 

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

there looks to be a very weak CAD signal...weak enough to where the models may be understating how cold it may be. I could see the models being 2-3F too warm at the sfc.

If I'm interpreting correctly that brings me slightly closer to snow here in PWM.  Still RN verbatim on the GFS, but close.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

there looks to be a very weak CAD signal...weak enough to where the models may be understating how cold it may be. I could see the models being 2-3F too warm at the sfc.

The HP position and colder air with it places my area in a good spot for bleed of CAD as that S/W gains latitude and winds veer to 20 degrees or so.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, tunafish said:

 

If I'm interpreting correctly that brings me slightly closer to snow here in PWM.  Still RN verbatim on the GFS, but close.

Close

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, tunafish said:

 

If I'm interpreting correctly that brings me slightly closer to snow here in PWM.  Still RN verbatim on the GFS, but close.

That’s 925…probably a flip to snow for you at some point in the 2nd half

[weatherwiz]

Yeah looking at the GFS I think PWM would probably start as rain but verbatim would probably flip over to snow, especially with heavier rates. 

[dryslot]

As Chris mentioned earlier for the coast it comes down to rates, GFS shows how you can get it done.

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

there looks to be a very weak CAD signal...weak enough to where the models may be understating how cold it may be. I could see the models being 2-3F too warm at the sfc.

Not wild about the primary holding that strong into upstate NY and already being on the edge here, but it can be done. I feel like there’s more room to go wrong than right from this point for CNE. Nammy is glop here, but snowier into the deeper wedging toward dryslot.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not wild about the primary holding that strong into upstate NY and already being on the edge here, but it can be done. I feel like there’s more room to go wrong than right from this point for CNE. Nammy is glop here, but snowier into the deeper wedging toward dryslot.

It's certainly cutting it close. Some minor ticks in each direction on the GFS would be pretty huge in terms of result. If the Euro can remain steadfast at 12z that may be enough to increase the excitement level a bit, but want to at least see these subtle trends through 0z tonight/12z tomorrow.

[Layman]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The inv dong of destiny in SW CT.

I try to keep up with the technical jargon here but some terms are simply above my pay grade.  This one seems to be deep into the Journeyman or early Master phase of the craft.  

[FXWX]

13 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

So can I ask you John, does the upper air pattern and pattern recognition match what the Euro is spitting out today? And if it does, then should we expect the Euros idea from today to prevail? 

Sorry for late reply, but short answer is yes.  That does not mean tweaks don't have to be made, but overall I prefer the euro evolution in the short and medium range terms...  

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not wild about the primary holding that strong into upstate NY and already being on the edge here, but it can be done. I feel like there’s more room to go wrong than right from this point for CNE. Nammy is glop here, but snowier into the deeper wedging toward dryslot.

I see what you talking about regarding concerns about the secondary getting going later. I wouldn't expect much there...maybe up to several inches.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[dendrite]

Already up to 51° with sun. Sneaky little torch day to start Dewcember. 

[Lava Rock]

52.3F. So much for getting some frost in the ground

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That’s reasonable, I went 4-8” for starters here.

[kdxken]

3 hours ago, mreaves said:

Exactly!  That's why they said it! 

Today's going to be in the '50s and cloudy. Not much risk for drifting snow.