Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 1 hour ago, DavisStraight said: I thought Google or some company was working on a new model. There is an AI model.running https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/graphcast_medium-mslp-wind850?base_time=202311301200&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202311301800 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: I think the euro will “blink”. 18z looks like a trend toward meh here. Huh? Synoptics support this clown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 3 hours ago, WinterWolf said: It would…but we’ll all be long dead. It’ll suck for the weather geeks at that point. Model discrepancies and variability is what keeps the science alive... Just like a good forecaster needs to analyze the actual pattern, surface and aloft, they also need to assess whether or not a particular model run makes sense given the nature of the current atmospheric setup... If it does, why does it make sense and is it believable? If it doesn't make sense, you have to figure out what is causing it to go astray? One of the reasons I think there are folks that think the modeling has gotten worse is that they don't realize years ago pattern recognition and analysis played a bigger role in forecasting than it does now, in some, not all quarters. Today I see some folks (I'm talking in general, not about anyone on this forum) spending 99% of their time looking at all and every modeling product, but rarely studying any actual data maps... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Huh? Synoptics support this clown Later developing secondary this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 18 minutes ago, dryslot said: Inside day 5 now so we’re going to see who blinks. And if The Euro blinks…this is exactly what I was talking about this morning. I hope for your guys sake, it holds steadfast, and schools the GFS this time around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Just now, WinterWolf said: And if The Euro blinks…this is exactly what I was talking about this morning. I hope for your guys sake, it holds steadfast, and schools the GFS this time around. Meh that blink is like a tenth of precip lol. Noise really. Wolfie if there's gonna be a big dog it's the 6th 7th woo that looks ripe. Just need it to hug a little more. Watch 850 east flow close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Meh that blink is like a tenth of precip lol. Noise really. Wolfie if there's gonna be a big dog it's the 6th 7th woo that looks ripe. Just need it to hug a little more. Watch 850 east flow close fyi I’m not saying 18z euro was the “blink”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, FXWX said: Model discrepancies and variability is what keeps the science alive... Just like a good forecaster needs to analyze the actual pattern, surface and aloft, they also need to assess whether or not a particular model run makes sense given the nature of the current atmospheric setup... If it does, why does it make sense and is it believable? If it doesn't make sense, you have to figure out what is causing it to go astray? One of the reasons I think there are folks that think the modeling has gotten worse is that they don't realize years ago pattern recognition and analysis played a bigger role in forecasting than it does now, in some, not all quarters. Today I see some folks (I'm talking in general, not about anyone on this forum) spending 99% of their time looking at all and every modeling product, but rarely studying any actual data maps... So can I ask you John, does the upper air pattern and pattern recognition match what the Euro is spitting out today? And if it does, then should we expect the Euros idea from today to prevail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Meh that blink is like a tenth of precip lol. Noise really. Wolfie if there's gonna be a big dog it's the 6th 7th woo that looks ripe. Just need it to hug a little more. Watch 850 east flow close Oh ya Steve, I was talking for Jeff and his crew in NNE. Be nice if we could cash in on a little something next Wednesday. Let’s sharpen up that ridge and trough a bit more to turn it up this way maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: And if The Euro blinks…this is exactly what I was talking about this morning. I hope for your guys sake, it holds steadfast, and schools the GFS this time around. Greens, Whites and Mahoosuc's and the county will continue to build, Up and in. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Even up here the coast seems like it's tough shape given current ensembles. There is some mean snowfall, but the 50th percentiles are all snowless along the coast suggesting some big members are dragging that mean up. But the cluster that features a little pump up ridge ahead of the wave are the ones that are snowier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Goofus with a lean toward the euro for Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Goofus with a lean toward the euro for Monday. Tic, Tic. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 56 minutes ago, dryslot said: Tic, Tic. Nice! Let’s go Euro… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Too warm for sne, but nice hit for CNE on euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Euro is warning snows, GFS caved too in CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 terrific overnight runs! NNE cashes in. Thankfully no one in SNE bought into the hype train, besides the usual suspects! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 "Short wave is deamplifying as it traverses the area, therefore expecting mainly light rain with rainfall totals only 0.01 to 0.10. A few spots could receive up to 0.25 inches, but not expecting any poor drainage/street flooding. Dew pts climb into the 40s tonight across RI and southeast MA. Thus, a mild night but these high dew pts likely result in areas of fog. Cooler across CT into western- central MA, but most locations remain above freezing, therefore not expecting any icy spots." Why would you expect flooding with a quarter inch of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Euro is warning snows, GFS caved too in CNE/NNE.Local Mets don't seem very excitedSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Local Mets don't seem very excited Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk We've established that something is going to happen now, but the two part wave brings a whole bunch more uncertainty into play. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Coastal areas are the wildcard in this, IVT's are fickle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: Coastal areas are the wildcard in this. I could see a scenario where the first wave kind of warms over the air mass and the second, snowier wave struggles to accumulate if the rates aren't there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I could see a scenario where the first wave kind of warms over the air mass and the second, snowier wave struggles to accumulate if the rates aren't there. A better air mass prior would offset any of this, But its quite marginal and have to see if you get some decent rates, Euro looks to intensify that 2nd wave fairly quickly on some of these prior runs so it brings snow right to the coast, We shall see over the next few cycles if this continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Looks like we snooze awhile in the long range. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like we snooze awhile in the long range. Little bit of split flow trying to show up over the center of the country on some of these runs so we may need to watch. Otherwise, yeah, might be a boring period in that 12/10-12/17 range… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Black ice alert down here. Yikes temp dropped 5 degrees in 2 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like we snooze awhile in the long range. 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Little bit of split flow trying to show up over the center of the country on some of these runs so we may need to watch. Otherwise, yeah, might be a boring period in that 12/10-12/17 range… Interesting takes, let's see how it evolves. Don't trust modeling at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Interesting takes, let's see how it evolves. Don't trust modeling at all. Not a fan of the Pacific look. Mild temps. There is some ridging that develops into Greenland later in the period. Maybe we can tap that when the Pacific improves. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not a fan of the Pacific look. Mild temps. There is some ridging that develops into Greenland later in the period. Maybe we can tap that when the Pacific improves. i do like the B-K Sea / Scandi ridging showing up on all ENS. that helps weaken the SPV as well as perhaps retrograde into the NAO domain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 6z Euro loves some ski areas. Boy what a start for the boys and girls of winter. Happy first Met day of old man winter @weathafella 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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