Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I've often wondered if going to coarser and finer resolutions has had some sort of negative feedback...but maybe the positives outweigh the negatives. I suspect two things are true at the same time, and they are competing.. 1 ..the models are vastly improved over where they were 30 years ago. Now ...that may have slowed down in recency ( last decade or so), sure... but they are still more powerful for computing speed and density of sample/grid intake --> physical processing than ever before. We need to just accept that. And they are not 'doing something different' while they are at it ? People seem to hint they are 'suspicious' or something. I'm like, yeah...of what? 2 Speculative ..the patterns of cold season hemispheres is different than it was 20 years ago. It just is... be it CC or not (related), the observed patterns enter into inherently poorer predictive states by breaking down at faster rates. Wave propagation mechanics are having tougher time in a continuity because the proverbial rug gets pulled out from under the pattern scaffolding so quickly. So what's going on is that we are with improved technological capacity that is just being stressed to the point where they can't perform as well as if these model advances were to have been set into practice 20 years ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I suspect two things are true at the same time, and they are competing.. 1 ..the models are vastly improved over where they were 30 years ago. Now ...that may have slowed down in recency ( last decade or so), sure... but they are still more powerful for computing speed and density of sample/grid intake --> physical processing than ever before. We need to just accept that. And they are not 'doing something different' while they are at it ? People seem to hint they are 'suspicious' or something. I'm like, yeah...of what? 2 Speculative ..the patterns of cold season hemispheres is different than it was 20 years ago. It just is... be it CC or not (related), the observed patterns enter into inherently poorer predictive states by breaking down at faster rates. Wave propagation mechanics are having tougher time in a continuity because the proverbial rug gets pulled out from under the pattern scaffolding so quickly. So what's going on is that we are with improved technological capacity that is just being stressed to the point where they can't perform as well as if these model advances were to have been set into practice 20 years ago. Great post, well said. Couldn't agree more. This is a pretty darn good way to state things. And what I have bolded irks me too. It's not that models "change". I mean when you think of it, the solution the model is spitting out is the product of how the pattern is evolving (time step derivatives, leap frog equation...I forget what that was called. Did that in mesoanalysis. I remember one Thanksgiving morning tackling that homework assignment). So feasibly, the solution the model is spitting out is correct...assuming the evolution occurs that way. Ultimately though, I think it just comes down to expectations and we let emptions get in the way and then all hell breaks loose. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 2 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Lol call it what you guys want…nobody is falling in love with dumb ass clown maps, or saying because the euro showed a snow storm yesterday and not today it’s worse. Ultimately it isn’t as good anymore…ya can take the scores for the Himalayas and for the Gobi dessert and burn em..the model has lost its mojo. Sure, the GFS is a lot better now, but it’s still not as good as the Euro was 8 yrs ago. As somebody said..to sensitive now is probably the case, I agree. Moving on…I guess we wait a little longer in SNE.. I liken it to people reminiscing about their 1990 Mach 1. It was great for it's time but are going to trade your current 850? 1990 2024 P.S. My back hurts just looking at the suspension on the 1990 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 11 minutes ago, mreaves said: I liken it to people reminiscing about their 1990 Mach 1. It was great for it's time but are going to trade your current 850? 1990 2024 P.S. My back hurts just looking at the suspension on the 1990 I preferred my 88 Plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: I preferred my 88 Plus. Even the PMS front suspension? Formula Crush... as in vertebrae Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 1 minute ago, UnitedWx said: Even the PMS front suspension? Formula Crush... as in vertebrae yea, she was harsh, but my thumb was more sore holding the throttle open on those 40 carbs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes. Really good look for last 10 days of Dec and first 10 of Jan. Another 2017-18 for those dates? Would be tasty - 2 big snowstorms and cold worthy of Fort Kent. Even a modest resemblance would be nice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 wow, how about that gfs D11-12!!!! Let's gooo 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Great post, well said. Couldn't agree more. This is a pretty darn good way to state things. And what I have bolded irks me too. It's not that models "change". I mean when you think of it, the solution the model is spitting out is the product of how the pattern is evolving (time step derivatives, leap frog equation...I forget what that was called. Did that in mesoanalysis. I remember one Thanksgiving morning tackling that homework assignment). So feasibly, the solution the model is spitting out is correct...assuming the evolution occurs that way. Ultimately though, I think it just comes down to expectations and we let emptions get in the way and then all hell breaks loose. Won't you guys adapt the new strength and weaknesses of the current models and adjust forecast based on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 Gfs way less amped with the 2nd wave . Miss OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 GFS is a garbage solution still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS is a garbage solution still. Yeah doesn’t even give NNE much except for some upslope farts on the back side. Too warm for most of the synoptic precip until well north into Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 1 hour ago, mreaves said: I liken it to people reminiscing about their 1990 Mach 1. It was great for it's time but are going to trade your current 850? 1990 2024 P.S. My back hurts just looking at the suspension on the 1990 I get your point, but this is Not quite the same Mark…but great pictures. Liken it to an 11 year old 2013 XRS 800, beating that more than a decade newer brand new 850 in everything but comfort and looks, but then saying well the styling, the seat and instrumentation is a whole lot better on the 2024. That’s what this seems like. But who cares…I know I can’t have any confidence like I used to in the Euro anymore, in the 96 hr and less range, like I did 5-10 yrs ago. And that’s all I know. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Great post, well said. Couldn't agree more. This is a pretty darn good way to state things. And what I have bolded irks me too. It's not that models "change". I mean when you think of it, the solution the model is spitting out is the product of how the pattern is evolving (time step derivatives, leap frog equation...I forget what that was called. Did that in mesoanalysis. I remember one Thanksgiving morning tackling that homework assignment). So feasibly, the solution the model is spitting out is correct...assuming the evolution occurs that way. Ultimately though, I think it just comes down to expectations and we let emptions get in the way and then all hell breaks loose. Imagine how completely boring it will be if and when the modeling reach infailable levels one day down the road... There would be just one centralized forecast office manned by a person to activate the computer and a janitor to dust... Also it would spell the death of weather forums! Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, FXWX said: Imagine how completely boring it will be if and when the modeling reach infailable levels one day down the road... There would be just one centralized forecast office manned by a person to activate the computer and a janitor to dust... Also it would spell the death of weather forums! Lol It would…but we’ll all be long dead. It’ll suck for the weather geeks at that point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS is a garbage solution still. But the rest of the run is pretty interesting. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 47 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs way less amped with the 2nd wave . Miss OTS. Oh well, there's always next year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowemgee Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 If the 18z GFS was favorable, we would get shut out (SNE), so we take. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I tend to agree. These next few weeks are hostile for most in SNE in the best of times, never mind this current climate regime. The shit sandwhich first week of December was always the most likely outcome. Lets just hope we aren’t watching the Ball drop with nothing to show for the month. It’s been frustrating the past couple winters when the good pattern comes in Nov or Mar/Apr. i’d ideally like to see it come 12/20-3/10 in order maximize climo. The season is getting shorter anyway so let Jan and Feb behave like the way it should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 1 hour ago, DavisStraight said: Won't you guys adapt the new strength and weaknesses of the current models and adjust forecast based on that? Yeah understanding the strengths/weaknesses of models should certainly be factored in. One example of this is with forecasting temperatures and using MOS. We see this very often during the spring months, but MOS tends to struggle mightily when it comes to highly anomalous patterns. When we see an anomalously warm airmass in the spring, MOS can underdo temperatures badly. See this often in the heart of the country too...sometimes MOS will miss in places by like 10-15F 59 minutes ago, FXWX said: Imagine how completely boring it will be if and when the modeling reach infailable levels one day down the road... There would be just one centralized forecast office manned by a person to activate the computer and a janitor to dust... Also it would spell the death of weather forums! Lol can't argue that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2023 Author Share Posted November 30, 2023 3 hours ago, dryslot said: Maybe we steal Christmas back from the Grinch............. Great chance of that for you IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: wow, how about that gfs D11-12!!!! Let's gooo Let me guess, it must be a heat wave..lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 1 hour ago, FXWX said: Imagine how completely boring it will be if and when the modeling reach infailable levels one day down the road... There would be just one centralized forecast office manned by a person to activate the computer and a janitor to dust... Also it would spell the death of weather forums! Lol Wait until quantum drive technology powers the weather automation grid. Wont be modeling anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Sarah Conner/Terminator sh*t. “I’ll be back!” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sled Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Wait until quantum drive technology powers the weather automation grid. Wont be modeling anything Doesn't the CIA already do this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, Sled said: Doesn't the CIA already do this? We'll know for sure if we never see another post from you. 38/29 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 2 hours ago, FXWX said: Imagine how completely boring it will be if and when the modeling reach infailable levels one day down the road... There would be just one centralized forecast office manned by a person to activate the computer and a janitor to dust... Also it would spell the death of weather forums! Lol I thought Google or some company was working on a new model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 We delay 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: GFS is a garbage solution still. Inside day 5 now so we’re going to see who blinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 I think the euro will “blink”. 18z looks like a trend toward meh here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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