December 2023

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

This times 1000.  Models are way better now.  Maybe it’s a situation of information overload when 20 years ago or more you’d look at like 3-4 models.  Now you can look at dozens of you want to.

You’d look at the NGM, ETA and MRF and call it a day as a hobbyist and not see anything past Day 5 lol.

Call BS inside 96. Shit you guys always post how surprised you are when you get dumped on because of modelogy not meteorology. 

[CoastalWx]

Anyways, we look forward to ski web cam pics and snowy scenes at Dendrite's chicken coops.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Was meh I felt. GFS was also maybe a tad east..but had the mid level features correct imo. 

Need 1 this year. Just 1

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Anyways, we look forward to ski web cam pics and snowy scenes at Dendrite's chicken coops.

With that comes the inevitable Kev posts day after about melting the pack to  Canada

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

With that comes the inevitable Kev posts day after about melting the pack to  Canada

Or anger directed at snowy scenes at a particular ski town.

[Typhoon Tip]

Where's George01 ...?!

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Or anger directed at snowy scenes at a particular ski town.

Lol true. Does amaze me when PF is surprised every year when he gets dumped on by upslope. This past event perfect example. When the Tug is predicting 4 feet obvious serious lift headed to the Greens with blocked flow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Are the weeklies still showing a prominent pattern for Santa and beyond? 

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol true. Does amaze me when PF is surprised every year when he gets dumped on by upslope. This past event perfect example. When the Tug is predicting 4 feet obvious serious lift headed to the Greens with blocked flow.

I mean I wasn’t the only one.  Didn’t see anyone forecasting those amounts.  It’s largely ratio driven for the most part.

I mean you get 6 FROPAs over two weeks and 5 of them leave 1-2” and one does a foot.  And they all look similar on the models.

You only hear about the surprise ones, not the half dozen before that which left an inch.

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Call BS inside 96. Shit you guys always post how surprised you are when you get dumped on because of modelogy not meteorology. 

You truly think the NGM, ETA and MRF were better models?  Or you thought you knew what to do with them better and didn’t have the information overload of today?

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You truly think the NGM, ETA and MRF were better models?  Or you thought you knew what to do with them better and didn’t have the information overload of today?

GGW

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You truly think the NGM, ETA and MRF were better models?  Or you thought you knew what to do with them better and didn’t have the information overload of today?

We’re talking about the Euro…(before the first upgrade that messed it up). 

[toller65]

Anyone have Euro clown? just for giggles

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

We’re talking about the Euro…(before the first upgrade that messed it up). 

Ahh I was talking more in general about weather models as a whole.  On the EURO, in my mind its likely a couple things... I doubt its a worse model but it has lost it's skill over the other models. That gives it a perceived back tracking in skill.  The gap has closed and it isn't the far and away best model.  The GFS and others likely made stepwise improvements, while the EURO still made small gains but it appears to have gotten worse because it doesn't have the total domination anymore.

Now if the GFS and others didn't make any improvements at all, and the gap closed, then the Euro would have had to get worse.  Just logically thinking about two things and where they rank relative to each other in performance.

[dryslot]

15 minutes ago, toller65 said:

Anyone have Euro clown? just for giggles

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

12”+

[dryslot]

48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I find the GFS and Euro are close and a close compromise works inside 5 days. Maybe that changes this winter.

Do you still give the euro more weight versus the GFS in percentages?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

Do you still give the euro more weight versus the GFS in percentages?

Yeah I'd say so. Although seriously at times I toss it. Can't do the 70/30 rule anymore. But maybe that changes this year. We'll see.  Maybe even with this event coming up. 

[weatherwiz]

I wish there was more dedication to model physics/background in school (maybe that's more of a grad level thing or maybe other schools do this). Understanding models is more than just being able to interpret the output. That is a small, tiny fraction of it. Ultimately though, forecasting has gotten more lazy. When I first joined the boards in the mid 2000's there was much more in-depth analysis and assessments of patterns, synoptics, etc. When you go around and read accounts of how meteorologists used to forecast back in the day and the techniques used...it all seemed very thorough.

Now when there is a severe weather threat in the Plains, everyone runs to supercell composite charts and significant tornado probs, anytime there is a winter weather threat, it's running to the 10:1 maps and using 10:1 maps for snow/sleet, even though it gets stated 8 million times why you can't do that, or running to the Kucheria snow maps because it paints out more snow than the 10:1. 

The integration and explosion of social media and how irresponsibly alot of this information gets tossed out makes it seem like models are worse but they really aren't. 

[Ginx snewx]

33 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I mean I wasn’t the only one.  Didn’t see anyone forecasting those amounts.  It’s largely ratio driven for the most part.

I mean you get 6 FROPAs over two weeks and 5 of them leave 1-2” and one does a foot.  And they all look similar on the models.

You only hear about the surprise ones, not the half dozen before that which left an inch.

Have to know when to hold um and know when to fold um. Nothing similar to me.

[Ginx snewx]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GGW

Lost^^

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wish there was more dedication to model physics/background in school (maybe that's more of a grad level thing or maybe other schools do this). Understanding models is more than just being able to interpret the output. That is a small, tiny fraction of it. Ultimately though, forecasting has gotten more lazy. When I first joined the boards in the mid 2000's there was much more in-depth analysis and assessments of patterns, synoptics, etc. When you go around and read accounts of how meteorologists used to forecast back in the day and the techniques used...it all seemed very thorough.

Now when there is a severe weather threat in the Plains, everyone runs to supercell composite charts and significant tornado probs, anytime there is a winter weather threat, it's running to the 10:1 maps and using 10:1 maps for snow/sleet, even though it gets stated 8 million times why you can't do that, or running to the Kucheria snow maps because it paints out more snow than the 10:1. 

The integration and explosion of social media and how irresponsibly alot of this information gets tossed out makes it seem like models are worse but they really aren't. 

To me personally the basic upper air and mid levels modeling has suffered under 96 hrs. I attribute a lot to the super fine tuning. Hard to use model bias now because the bias runs so may ways.

[ORH_wxman]

53 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Are the weeklies still showing a prominent pattern for Santa and beyond? 

Yes. Really good look for last 10 days of Dec and first 10 of Jan. 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes. Really good look for last 10 days of Dec and first 10 of Jan. 

It's interesting to see the entire ensemble suite of the EPS be so much more coherently intense around 90 hours compared to the GEFs.  I mean, there's a lot of 975 mb pressure plots and the GEFs are like 1002

[Len Ticular]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Anyways, we look forward to ski web cam pics and snowy scenes at Dendrite's chicken coops.

https://www.facebook.com/LeopARTnik/videos/2248079822066614/

[weatherwiz]

23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

To me personally the basic upper air and mid levels modeling has suffered under 96 hrs. I attribute a lot to the super fine tuning. Hard to use model bias now because the bias runs so may ways.

Yeah I agree with this. Scores or whatever may say differently but there seems to have been much more uncertainty within 3-4 days in not only how the mid/upper levels will evolve but with the overall look and from model-to-model and run-to-run. 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah I agree with this. Scores or whatever may say differently but there seems to have been much more uncertainty within 3-4 days in not only how the mid/upper levels will evolve but with the overall look and from model-to-model and run-to-run. 

I also noticed a tendency for these 'uncertainty nowadays compared to back whence' type model critique themes to emerge whenever the models go from a fun solution to a piece of shit, too -

LOL

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I also noticed a tendency for these 'uncertainty nowadays compared to back whence' type model critique themes to emerge whenever the models go from a fun solution to a piece of shit, too -

LOL

I've often wondered if going to coarser and finer resolutions has had some sort of negative feedback...but maybe the positives outweigh the negatives. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes. Really good look for last 10 days of Dec and first 10 of Jan. 

Nice. That’s the target and our focus. Usher in a good pattern as climo becomes more favorable, and not the other way around. 

[dryslot]

Maybe we steal Christmas back from the Grinch.............

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nice. That’s the target and our focus. Usher in a good pattern as climo becomes more favorable, and not the other way around. 

I tend to agree. These next few weeks are hostile for most in SNE in the best of times, never mind this current climate regime.

 

The shit sandwhich first week of December was always the most likely outcome.

Lets just hope we aren’t watching the Ball drop with nothing to show for the month.