December 2023

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Fangs

No fangs..just truth. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

No fangs..just truth. 

Sometimes the fangs are the truth. 

[Cuteirishgirl25]

That’s always a possibility, however, as I said, all the models are garbage, can’t trust any one of them. They completely ruined the Euro when they updated years ago, The GFS is no better then throwing darts at a dart board. 

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS looks better with the trailing wave and +PNA

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS looks better with the trailing wave and +PNA

Yes, ridge is a little sharper on 12z, and a little bit better placed too. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Yes, ridge is a little sharper on 12z, and a little bit better placed too. 

That is some more shapely cirrus, that run.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is some more shapely cirrus, that run.

Just looking at small details bro…sometimes it can make a difference at 5 days out.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS looks better with the trailing wave and +PNA

Starting to really like the signals we're seeing regarding the PNA and PAC in general moving forward. There has been a consistent trend towards getting a more favorable pattern to unload some good cold into Canada. This is something we've lacked big time the last few years. Regardless of what happens with these waves this week or any subsequent "winter" threat over the next 2-3 weeks...we're making subtle trends towards more favorable times ahead. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Just looking at small details bro…sometimes it can make a difference at 5 days out.

Yea, its def closer...long shot, but better than tracking every 0.1 rise in el Nino.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, its def closer...long shot, but better than tracking every 0.1 rise in el Nino.

Agreed. Probably means nothing but it was a lil improvement.  Let’s see what the goofy euro does in an hour. 

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

About 200k....

Probably Tewksbury area.....

Whenever I think of Tewksbury I am reminded of the commercials during Bruins games in the 70s.  “Hi this is Jim Pierce of Jim Pierce Ford World in Tewksbury”. He pronounced it as Tewkshbury.   

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Starting to really like the signals we're seeing regarding the PNA and PAC in general moving forward. There has been a consistent trend towards getting a more favorable pattern to unload some good cold into Canada. This is something we've lacked big time the last few years. Regardless of what happens with these waves this week or any subsequent "winter" threat over the next 2-3 weeks...we're making subtle trends towards more favorable times ahead. 

Maybe we can exorcist the grinch this year.

[Snowcrazed71]

Dare I say this, we're leaving around 1:00 in the morning on Wednesday, so I hope if we can get a window as we drive from Connecticut up to Quebec City. Watch ys get this storm now ( although I'm all for it if it just waits until we get up there and then does its thing ). Lol

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Stay away from 93 part near Wilmington. There's a hog farm there I guess. It stinks to high heaven in the Spring when you drive by.

yes it does stink. i worked at the Rolling Green years ago, and smelled it almost every time I drove by it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

yes it does stink. i worked at the Rolling Green years ago, and smelled it almost every time I drove by it.

I never drive with the windows down, so maybe that is why....I know it doesn't smell at my sister's house, so it must be a confined area.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d just refer to it as the 12/6 wave. Seems to be on its own with that idea for the most part since yesterday. Though there’s been a very small number of EPS members that try to show it too. 

My problem with it is the wave spacing.  There's definitely some torque robbing going on there between it and ...whatever the 4th ultimately does to make us think things will work out better while it's not

 

lol

[WxWatcher007]

It’s frustrating that the more frequent updates of models have disrupted apparent biases and consistency, but without question IMO they are still an enormously valuable and reliable tool. 

We wouldn’t be running to watch and do analysis of (some of) them every six hours if their skill was little more than a coin flip. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s frustrating that the more frequent updates of models have disrupted apparent biases and consistency, but without question IMO they are still an enormously valuable and reliable tool. 

We wouldn’t be running to watch and do analysis of (some of) them every six hours if their skill was little more than a coin flip. 

Their skill is definitely superior to what it was during the glory days of the euro…the problem is the Euro isn’t like 2 tiers above the closest competitors anymore so now we actually have to try and figure out which model is most correct. Prior, we could just sort of hug the euro inside of 108 hours and cruise to success. 
 

There were certain times I did not trust the euro back then…it wasn’t as good with CAD back then as it became later on (I tossed it in the trash prior to the Dec 2008 ice storm when it showed rain up to NH border in ORH county) and once in a while it wasnt great with rapidly deepening storms (ala 12/9/05 where it shat the bed)

[WinterWolf]

Agreed they are very valuable…but to be honest, I think we’ve ultimately taken a step back with all the supposed updates and supposed improvements, than we were 5-8 yrs ago.  
 

Back when the Euro was king…most of the time we knew what we were gonna get(a good storm or not, not exact amounts of course) 3-4 days out.  We don’t anymore.  The last 2-3 yrs have been abismol at 24 hrs out.  The Euro would lock on…and it was game over for the other junk, and they’d all trend to basically what the Euro had synoptically speaking.  

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Their skill is definitely superior to what it was during the glory days of the euro…the problem is the Euro isn’t like 2 tiers above the closest competitors anymore so now we actually have to try and figure out which model is most correct. Prior, we could just sort of hug the euro inside of 108 hours and cruise to success it always being the least impressive of all plausible solutions. 
 

...

agreed

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

agreed

Hey there’s a reason it was called “Dr No”….lol

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Hey there’s a reason it was called “Dr No”….lol

But at least ya knew. Now ya don’t. Sure, you guys can point to it’s scores here or there…but it’s not as good with sniffing out the goods like it used to be. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But at least ya knew. Now ya don’t. Sure, you guys can point to it’s scores here or there…but it’s not as good with sniffing out the goods like it used to be. 

I don’t know man, the garbage scenario was easily the most likely, just because the auto showers something half decent for one run doesn’t mean it was bad. We are talking 120+ hours out.

if people took the cheese on that, it’s on them.

[Layman]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s frustrating that the more frequent updates of models have disrupted apparent biases and consistency, but without question IMO they are still an enormously valuable and reliable tool. 

We wouldn’t be running to watch and do analysis of (some of) them every six hours if their skill was little more than a coin flip. 

I'm new to all of this and enjoy trying to parse information provided by the experienced meteorologists and hobbyists here.  The abilities and reliability of the models is something that is very interesting to me.  Trying to discern the line between models as a tool and the interpretation from the experts who use them.  I tend to view things very black and white and expect hard and fast results from specific inputs but weather and forecasting certainly don't seem to work that way!  

I find it interesting that the experienced folks here can see biases and trends within the models that are counter to what the model is outputting.  Why would this be?  I'm assuming that those who provide input into the models development would see this too and attempt to correct it...?  I don't know what that process is like and imagine it's arduous and involved.  However, based on the responses above, it seems like something has changed in the models specifically.  If it/they were previously more reliable with the data point inputs they were receiving, it shouldn't matter if temps are increasing, decreasing or other normal weather related impacts are changing if it was processing them correctly.  

It seems that these are very valuable tools but I'm curious about the reliability.  @WinterWolf mentioned the "scores" = is this a self-assessing/ranking score for each model?  Is there data showing how reliable a models forecasts are at X number of hours out from an event?  Or not even an event per se, but any given moment in time?  I'd love to know if there's a "cone of confidence" showing how far out from point zero in time that a models predictions go from 0% accurate to 99%/100% accurate.

[dendrite]

We all fall in love with the fancy hires QPF and clowns now at d5-7.

The models are really damn impressive. As the decades go by our expectations change and we demand more from them and want specific deets many days out. I think many of us forget what they were like in 2010 or 2000. They've missed plenty of storms in the past. Heck I remember when the euro was gaining its king status back when it only ran once per day, most of us did not get to see QPF, and we basically forecasted using H5-7-85 and 2m/1000mb. We were toggling coarse SLP contours on unisys.

[dryslot]

12z Euro going to bring it this run for the 4th for CNE/NNE.

[Hazey]

Lots of solutions. Needs another day or two to sort out the key s/w in the grouping. Fun times ahead.

[Ginx snewx]

Congrats Dendrite on the foot plus. Huge hit for CNNE.

[dryslot]

I'm thinking the one on the 4th is the one that will win out, It seems to have the most support for a few days now.

[Lava Rock]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Agreed they are very valuable…but to be honest, I think we’ve ultimately taken a step back with all the supposed updates and supposed improvements, than we were 5-8 yrs ago.  
 

Back when the Euro was king…most of the time we knew what we were gonna get(a good storm or not, not exact amounts of course) 3-4 days out.  We don’t anymore.  The last 2-3 yrs have been abismol at 24 hrs out.  The Euro would lock on…and it was game over for the other junk, and they’d all trend to basically what the Euro had synoptically speaking.  

It's quite obvious to me models were better back then, but why don't they either go back to them or tweak the ones they have to make them like they were? Would they deny that the models are worse now than they used to be? What benefit is there to providing a frcst based on models that goes back and forth sometimes within <48hr?